Hello and welcome back to Geek of the Week! In this article, I will be examining some early Goalie performances, specifically their weekly consistency. If you are unfamiliar with my True Value constructs (Quality Weeks, Really Bad Weeks, and Star Weeks), I utilize these to model a Goalie's True Value in head-to-head (H2H) category leagues. You can find a deep dive into this topic in a previous article here.

In general, in your weekly H2H leagues, a goalie is only as good as they perform for you week-in-week out. Sometimes a Goalie's cumulative stats are elite (+.930 SV%), but they tend to have some terrible weeks followed by great weeks. For your H2H fantasy league, they may have only performed well in 60% of your matchups. Their ranking in Yahoo, ESPN, or Fantrax won't represent that inconsistency – The True Value Goalie rankings do. These rankings are built specifically for H2H category leagues that include Wins, SV%, GAA, and SO. They will also be relevant if you don't count SO, but are not as relevant for volume-heavy leagues (e.g. W, Saves, Sv%).

Here is a breakdown of the criteria of the True Value Goalie constructs:

Please note, these constructs may slightly differ from the constructs represented in FrozenTools.

Quality Week (QW) – When a goalie has performed above the weekly average in two out of three of the main goalie categories (Wins, SV%, GAA). Last season, the average QW% was 55%.

Star Week (SW) – When a goalie has ranked top 15 for the week in all three of the main goalie categories (Wins, SV%, GAA). OR if your goalie has had a quality week AND has also gotten a shutout (This assumes SO is a counted category). Last season, the average SW% was 22%.

Really Bad Week (RBW) – When a goalie has ranked below the top 30 goalies for the week in all three of the main goalie categories (Wins, SV%, GAA), and has not gotten a shutout. These are weeks in which it would have been more valuable for your team to not have the goalie rostered/started. Last season, the average RBW% was 23%.

The True Value rankings take into account these three constructs week-in-week-out to evaluate Goalie consistency for your H2H leagues. You can find these rankings here, updated throughout the season.

Although we are still early, the rankings can't paint an interesting picture of goalie performance so far. I will be highlighting a few goalies that have surprised so far and what it can mean moving forward.

Anthony Stolarz

Stolarz was thrust into the starting role for the Maple Leafs to start the season with Joseph Woll's injury. He has accumulated three straight QWs with two being SWs, resulting in a tie for first among all goalies in True Value, much better than his current rank of 15 on Yahoo. Stolarz now is likely to split starts with Woll, but that may not be a bad thing. Last season, in a backup role, Stolarz was one of the best in consistency, posting a QW in 80% of his active weeks. He can provide similar value moving forward with the Maple Leafs, even with just one-two starts per week.

Jonathan Quick

Quick has quietly put up two straight Star Weeks with just one start in each week. From the looks of it, The Rangers may continue to roll out their strategy of giving Igor Shesterkin a night off after three straight starts (even without back-to-backs). This can result in Quick being an elite streaming option and maybe even a hold, depending on the Rangers schedule. Last season, Quick had a 60% QW% and a 27% SW% in his backup role. The Rangers continue to be a top team in the league with plenty of opportunities for their Goalies to pick up SWs and QWs.

Eric Comrie

Another quiet streaming option is Comrie, who has picked up two straight Quality Weeks, with a start in each week. The Jets allowed backup Laurent Brossoit to be a top 10 fantasy goalie last season, playing in 20 weeks, picking up a QW in 90% of them. Comrie could benefit from being in the same role this season. If he can get a start a week, he may be a hold, otherwise, he can be an elite streaming option.

Pittsburgh Penguins Goalies

Tristan Jarry had an absolutely terrible start to the season, losing his starting role to a combination of Alex Nedeljkovic and rookie Joel Blomqvist. Nedeljkovic hasn't fared much better, picking up two straight Really Bad Weeks since his return from injury. Blomqvist is the story here though, grabbing two Quality Weeks out of his three active weeks. It seems like the Penguins net may not be too friendly to goalies this season, but keep an eye on Blomqvist, who could earn himself many more starts to follow.

Hope you enjoyed this week’s breakdown!

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