Hello and welcome back to Geek of the Week! In this article, I will be examining some players that fall at either end of the spectrum of exceeding expectations or falling far below them. For these players, we'll take a look under the hood at some underlying metrics to see if their performances are sustainable (good or bad). I'll then give a reasonable per game projection for the rest of the season. This is a great time in the season to take advantage of these players' values and either buy low or sell high in trades.

Buy Low

Zach Hyman – Hyman is an obvious buy-low candidate with a high ADP and an extremely low early season performance. McDavid's recent injury just adds to the Hyman FUD (fear, uncertainty, and doubt). Every Hyman owner knows he's under-producing and doesn't want to be the one to sell low, but you can still pry him away from a manager with ease if you offer enough.

Hyman scored his first goal of the season in his 11th game on Thursday against the Predators. This raised his shooting percentage to 3.33%. Hyman has hovered around a 13% shooting percentage in his career, with a big bump last season to 18.6%. Many people may look at this as unsustainable, but playing with Connor McDavid and making a living in front of the net can make this number sustainable.

The Oilers offense, led by their superstars, have had a very slow start to this season, similar to last season. Last season, the Oilers were 27th in goals for in the first quarter of the season, before exploding to lead the league in that regard in the latter three quarters. McDavid may be able to return from injury in just two weeks, a time in which I could see a similar surge from the Oilers in offensive production. Hyman should benefit greatly from this and start scoring goals just like last season.

Hyman's ROS per game projection: 0.55 Goals, 0.32 Assists, 3.4 SOG

This projection puts Hyman's season totals at 39 Goals, 24 Assists, and 271 SOG, but puts him at a 45-goal pace the rest of the season.

It may be tough to pay up for Hyman, but he may still be a top 30-40 fantasy player moving forward. With his terrible start, you may be able to pry him away from an owner valuing him as a top 60-70 player.

Sell High

Sam Reinhart – After a career high in Goals (57) and shooting % (24.5%) last season, many pegged Reinhart as a regression candidate this offseason, including myself. Reinhart has started off white hot this season, proving many of us wrong, leading the league in goals (10) and points (21). Though at this critical point, it may be time to double down.

In the past three seasons, there have been only a few players to eclipse a 20% shooting percentage in each year. Only one player (Brayden Point), was able to do that in back-to-back seasons. Reinhart has found himself in a great spot to bury pucks with plenty of dangerous scoring chances, but he is scoring at an absolutely torrid pace and I just don't buy it that he is a 25%+ shooter now. He is bound to hit a dry spell.

I expect Reinhart to finish the season with around a 20% shooting percentage. Aside from his own shooting percentage, his teammates are also enjoying high percentages while he is on the ice (20.4%). This number was at 12.4% last season and has never been above 13.8% for Reinhart in a season. When his teammates shooting percentage regresses, so too will his assist numbers. I am projecting Reinhart's individual and on-ice shot rates to stay as they are, but I project regressions in his and his teammates shooting percentages.

Reinhart's ROS per game projection: 0.51 Goals, 0.4 Assists, 2.85 SOG

This projection still puts Reinhart near the top of the league in Goals (45) and Points (84) in an 82-game span after his torrid start, but it puts him only around the top 30-50 for the rest of the season. Now may be a great time to sell high on Reinhart as a top 5-10 player. He was elite last season and it is far enough into the season where someone can be convinced that this is the new elite Reinhart. If you can get a top 20 player for Reinhart (maybe a player in the buy-low section), I'd be pulling the trigger.

A few targets I'd rather have over Reinhart: Leon Draisaitl, David Pastrnak, Jack Hughes, Mikko Rantanen, Artemi Panarin

Sam Bennett – Another Panther named Sam finds himself on my sell high list. This Sam however, is a great multi-category stud, picking up plenty of shots, hits, and blocks from a forward. This provides Bennett with a great floor and makes him rosterable even if he were to be putting up a 40–50-point pace.

Bennett is having a great start to the season though and putting up a point-per-game pace. A big reason for this was the absence of Florida's number 1 center, Aleksander Barkov. Bennett was given increased minutes, especially on the power-play, where he picked up 4 of his 13 points. Bennett is still in a great spot, centering Carter Verhaeghe and Matthew Tkachuk at even strength. He will find a hard time getting good power-play deployment though, capping his ceiling. Aside from this, he is also shooting an unsustainable 19%, when he is consistently a lower percentage, high-volume shooter.

Bennett's ROS per game projection: 0.34 Goals, 0.43 Assists, 2.95 SOG, 2.3 Hits, 0.7 BLK

This projection still puts Bennett at career highs in Goals (31), Assists (35), and points (66), but puts him closer to a 60-point pace the rest of the season. With Bennett's hot streak, maybe you can sell him as a 70-80 point, 250 SOG, and 200 Hit stud. If so, I would easily pull the trigger. If no one's buying him at that price, just be happy with your 60-point 250 SOG, 200 Hit, multi category stud.

A few targets I'd rather have over Bennett: Zach Hyman, Jason Robertson, Wyatt Johnston, Connor Bedard, Chris Kreider, Steven Stamkos

Hope you enjoyed this week’s breakdown!

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