Ramblings: Updates on McDavid, Celebrini, Benson,Nichushkin, Broberg, and Pinto; Evaluating Preseason Projections – November 5

Michael Clifford

2024-11-05

The injury to Mathew Barzal has put the New York Islanders in a tough spot. He is easily their best playmaker and despite his slow start (five points in 10 games), they need him if they want to consistently look dangerous offensively.

In response to the injury, the Islanders changed their PP units on Sunday afternoon, and ran the same thing in practice on Monday:

It was just one game, but the Islanders had a 55-45 ice time split on the power play on Sunday. No Barzal and split power play units are not going to help the guys we are relying on for fantasy, though it's good news for marginal fantasy options like Jean-Gabriel Pageau, Ryan Pulock, and Oliver Wahlstrom.

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An update on Philip Broberg, and while not ideal, it could have been worse:

Broberg had been solid in his first season for the Blues and had nine points in 11 games before the injury. It looks like he'll be out until December, but that's better than April.

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Artem Zub and Shane Pinto were both at practice for the Ottawa Senators on Monday:

Neither took part in line rushes, so they may not be ready for Tuesday's game in Buffalo, but it hasn't been ruled out. Maybe circle Thursday's game at home to the Islanders as a real possibility.

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Zach Benson was back at practice for Buffalo:

Benson's return may mean Jiri Kulich being sent back to the AHL. We will see.

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In more good injury news, an update on Connor McDavid:

It has been about a week since his injury and he was expected to be out for 2-3 weeks. He said after practice that he hoped to be back by the weekend, but that's the optimistic outlook.

Edmonton played on Monday night, and Edmonton lost on Monday night, at home to New Jersey. The Devils manufactured a 3-0 win largely on the back of a 31-save shutout from Jake Allen, who now has three wins in five starts, a .904 save percentage, and a 2.60 goals against average.

Jesper Bratt (PP), Timo Meier, and Stefan Noesen scored for the Devils. Bratt assisted on Noesen's goal and that has pushed Bratt to 15 points in 15 games to go with 38 shots and 22 hits. A very good start to the season for him.

Nico Hischier had an assist on Bratt's power play goal and is still above a point-per-game status with 16 in 15 contests.

Calvin Pickard allowed three goals on 16 shots to take the loss.

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An update on Valeri Nichushkin:

Earlier reports have indicated that he might be back for Colorado as soon as his suspension is up, which means a return next week against Washington. The Avalanche are off to a 5-7 start, but Artturi Lehkonen is back on Tuesday night and Nichushkin the week after, so they are starting to get very important players back in the lineup.

For what it's worth, Colorado had a top line of Lehkonen-MacKinnon-Rantanen in practice.

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A great update on San Jose's Macklin Celebrini:

He also took part in line drills on the top line, and is set to return with the Sharks at home Tuesday night against the Columbus Blue Jackets.

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Nashville hosted Los Angeles on Monday night and the Kings skated out with the two points thanks to a 3-0 win. Darcy Kuemper stopped all 16 shots he faced for the shutout, and while he wasn't busy, he was solid when he needed to be. Rounding up, that now brings him to a .900 save percentage on the season, which is solid enough in the new NHL scoring environment.

Anze Kopitar scored his fifth of the season while third-period goals from Kevin Fiala and Adrian Kempe (EN) provided the insurance. Kempe assisted on Kopitar's goal, totaling three shots and a hit in a very good fantasy night. The winger is now up to 12 points, 35 shots, and 16 hits in 13 games on the season.

Brandt Clarke also assisted the Kopitar goal, and he now has 12 points in 13 games, landing with 28 shots and 23 blocks. He has also skated at least 18 minutes in five straight games now.

Juuse Saros allowed two goals on 26 shots in the loss.

Alex Turcotte took a hard hit from Jeremy Lauzon late in the second period and did not return. It would be a shame if this is a serious injury because he had been a revelation for the Kings through the first month of the season.

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Just before the season started, I posted my 82-game projections for some defencemen that stuck out to me. The higher-end guys were discussed here and the middle-of-the-road options discussed here. With only two games on Monday night and the fact we're a month into the season, let's take stock of those defencemen to see where things have gone right or wrong, and what we can expect moving ahead. Data from Natural Stat Trick or Frozen Tools.

Josh Morrissey

My preseason projection for Morrissey, based on 82 games played, was for just shy of 80 points. So far in 2024-25, he has 15 points in 12 games, so things are off to a good start.

One concern is that he's registering a point on 62.5% of Winnipeg's 5-on-5 goals scored with him on the ice (IPP, or individual points percentage), and that would be a career-high, having never reached 55% before. The good news is the team is shooting 6.6% with him on the ice at 5-on-5, which would be a career-low. Once the team starts scoring more, even if he falls to 50% IPP, the point production should be fine.

The bigger problem is the team is shooting 20% with him on the ice for the power play, and no defenceman reached even 19% last season. Once that falls, his PP production will go with it. A full season still likely means the 70-point range, but probably closer to 70 than 80.

Dougie Hamilton

Hamilton was just under Morrissey for my preseason point projection at 78-79 points. With seven points in 14 games (heading into Monday night's game against Edmonton), it's safe to say Hamilton is undershooting that by a lot.

It isn't as if he's had a poor start, generally speaking. The entire problem is he's registered a point on 24.1% of goals scored with him on the ice, which is by far a career-low mark. He has never been lower than 37.5% in any season, and averaged 49% across his first three seasons in New Jersey. If he is at that 49% average, he's a point-per-game defenceman. So it goes.

Here is the thing: per tracking from AllThreeZones, here are Hamilton's marks for percentage of zone entries carried in at 5-on-5 over his four New Jersey seasons, and the team's average for defencemen:

SeasonDH Carry-In%NJD Carry-In%
2021-2250%37.5%
2022-2350%34.6%
2023-2450%41.9%
2024-2528.6%21.6%


New Jersey's defencemen are being tasked with much fewer zone entries at 5-on-5, and that's bleeding over to Hamilton's involvement. With his usage, points should improve somewhat, but it's clear the team's offence is not being run the same under Sheldon Keefe as it was under Lindy Ruff. If he's not carrying the puck into the zone, it makes sense he's not racking up points at his usual rate.

Jake Sanderson

With eight points in 11 games, Sanderson is just under a 60-point pace for 82 games, which is higher than my 51-point projection for him before the season started.

There are two components here.

First, seven of those eight points have come on the power play. He has been involved in 77.8% of Ottawa's PP goals scored with him on the ice, and that should raise red flags as very few defencemen get to that 75-80% range in a single season (we are talking Roman Josi/Quinn Hughes territory). However, even if he stays near 75%, the Senators are shooting over 31% on the power play with him on the ice. As mentioned in the section on Morrissey, even 18% would be exceptionally high. It shouldn't be a surprise when his power play production craters in the months to come.

Of course, that drop in PP production will be balanced (somewhat) by the fact that the team is shooting 3.8% with him on the ice at 5-on-5. Getting in on 30% of the goals at 5-on-5 once that shooting percentage rebounds would largely offset the losses with the man advantage. Of course, PP points are a fantasy category we care about, but even a decline there should still leave him in the 50-point range as long as he stays healthy.  

Justin Faulk

Faulk's projection was 51-52 points and he has five points in 12 games thus far, so, not great. However, the team is also shooting 6.7% with him on the ice at all strengths, and he has never been below 7.5% in any season of his career, and has been above 8% for six straight seasons. With Nick Leddy and now Philip Broberg both injured, there just aren't many power play options for the Blues.

St. Louis isn't going to be a high-end offensive team by any stretch, but Faulk should be in the 23- to 24-minute range for the foreseeable future and once the team shooting percentage rebounds, things should improve. With that said, I am not expecting more than 50 points from him this season.

Jake Walman

My projection for Walman was 36.8 points in 82 games. He has nine points in 13 games, and just one of those points has come on the power play. Because of that low PP production, despite San Jose's addition of Timothy Liljegren, it doesn't necessarily nuke Walman's production potential. With 35 shots, 22 blocks, and 16 hits, he has been a multi-cat monster.

However, there is some bad news. That bad news is he's registering a point on 62.5% of Sharks goals scored with him on the ice at 5-on-5. For reference, last season, no defenceman with at least 1000 minutes of 5-on-5 ice time reached 60%, and he's never reached 40% in any season. Without the top PP role, and much lower involvement in the 5-on-5 goals, he should pace closer to a 35-point player from here on out (maybe 30 points the rest of the way).

On the bright side, 30 points over the rest of the season would have him surpass my preseason projection, and the peripherals would make him hugely valuable for 82 games. I just would not expect him to be anywhere close to the 55-point pace defenceman he's been so far.

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UPCOMING GAMES

Nov 05 - 19:11 CAR vs PHI
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