Starting with the battle of Ontario, because everyone knows that’s the centre of the hockey universe. The Sens actually looked like the Cup contenders in this one while the Leafs (sans Auston Matthews) looked like the playoff bubble team. 

Michael Amadio scored against his former team (the Leafs) and now has goals in back to back games. He has some streamer value when in the top-six as he has been one occasion, but down in the bottom six he’s not worth the gamble, despite the occasional goal like last night.

That was one of three goals scored against Anthony Stolarz, but it still looks like a solid night for the netminder as he picked up his ninth quality start of the season – compared to one Really Bad Start. Nevertheless, I would expect Joseph Woll to get the next game. Or even the next three if he rattles off some wins. 

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Jonathan Lekkerimaki made his NHL debut last night, getting a shot on the top line. The Canucks are hoping to get more out of both J.T. Miller and Elias Pettersson, so it will be interesting to see if Lekkerimaki clicks with either, as it’s a fair assumption that he should get at least a few games now that he’s up. 

He stuck with the Miller line all night, putting up no points, two shots, and one hit. His line did very well controlling play at even strength, and he was with the top power play unit for their only goal on the night. All in all a solid debut, looking the part of an impact NHL scorer.  

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Jared McCann is finally putting up numbers that some fantasy owners have been wishing for the last number of years. Over the last few years McCann has been someone who put up first-line numbers despite barely playing second-line minutes. Well, this year he’s pacing for over 90 points because he’s… still playing less than 17 minutes and game. Huh. 

Interestingly, the only real red flag McCann has is his team’s shooting percentage with him on the ice, which will see a correction that would drop his pace a bit. His personal shooting percentage at 21% sounds extremely high at first, but he’s had full seasons at 19% before, and his shot rate is a little lower, hinting that he’s being a little more selective too. While it should still come down, it shouldn’t see a major drop. Those drops could still be mitigated by an increase in ice time. I know, I know, we’re always waiting for that and it hasn’t come yet, but note that the only four times McCann has played over 18 minutes in a game this year have been in four of the last five contests prior to Tuesday’s game. 

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Quick heads up that Uvis Balinskis has taken over top power play duties in Florida. It hasn’t led to a high production rate yet, but if you’re looking for a cheap flier on a player in deeper leagues, you could do a lot worse. His power play assist last night could be the tip of the iceberg as he gets more comfortable.  

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Martin Necas has been one of the big surprises this year, after being drafted often past the 150 slot, he’s currently tied for third in league scoring with 24 points in 14 games (21 in his last 10).

Just how far is he likely to fall though when his numbers come back to earth? Well, his shooting percentage is double his norm, his team’s shooting pecans with him on the ice is 1.5 times the usual barometer, and his IPPs are higher than they have ever been. What that tells me, is his pace is probably about 40% too high all told. Take that off of where he currently is, and you end up about an 85-point pace the rest of the way. Still an order of magnitude ahead of his previous career high of 71 points, but Necas is also right on the border of being a larger player, and those do break out later. We could see the scoring pace of 85+ points just being the new norm for him. 

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Of the goalies who have played the most games thus far, I wanted to look at which might be in the most danger of tailing off due to the high workload. Goalies like Igor Shesterkin, Juuse Saros, and league leader Connor Hellebuyck have been there before, so the volume isn’t a concern. Here are the goalies with the most starts who we might see tail off after Christmas, if not even earlier. 

Connor Ingram

Ingram has really taken the reins away from Karel Vejmelka in the Utah crease, building on last season’s 50-start campaign. He’s on pace to make over 60 starts this year, and I’m not something sure that’s a good thing. 

His game has suffered with the team losing top-four defencemen John Marino and Sean Durzi to injuries, and Ingram's ratios are downright poor at this point. On top of that, he really faded in the second half last year, with a start divide right around the mid-way point, going from a .920 save percentage down to .895 in the second half. 

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen 

Maybe this one has begun already with Monday’s game, or maybe we can blame that outing on the minor injury that the team noted was the “real” reason for him being pulled after the fourth goal against on Monday. UPL has managed a number of injuries over the last few years, so his propensity there does lend some credence to the fact that it might be a minor ailment that needs nursing.

UPL was very streaky last year, and Buffalo isn't exactly known for their team defence. They have goalie of the future Devon Levi waiting in the wings, and a 13-year streak with no playoff games that they are trying to bust. Injured and streaky is not going to cut it.

Jeremy Swayman

Swayman had declining save percentages in each successive quarter last season, and he's on pace to meet last year's 44 starts in Q3 this year, which means we could see the wheels fall off even faster. The issue on top of that is that Swayman hasn't even played all that well yet, so whatever hot streak he does eventually have, it likely just a flash in the pan of what will go down as a very disappointing year on the whole.

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There was a bit of a rumour before Monday’s Sharks game that Macklin Celebrini would be a healthy scratch. We’re seeing this a little more it seems, where rookies are getting a game or two off more so in a proactive way rather than a negative retaliation for mistakes on the ice. Getting the rookies a bit of a longer break allows them to afforestation a little more smoothly both physically and mentally, giving them a bit more time to practice between games and soak in lessons they’ve learned. 

Anaheim did this quite a bit last year with Leo Carlsson, and other notables this year include Matvei Michkov, and Celebrini’s teammate Will Smith. It seems only a matter of time before Celebrini does get a scheduled break, and it likely would have happened already if it wasn’t for his injury. All that to say, is now part of a positive process, so don’t overreact to one or two games watching from the stands. 

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Vegas had an update on a couple of their injuries. Good to see that Mark Stone will be back soon, while the eventual return of Victor Olofsson will really help lengthen their lineup as they battle to stay atop the Pacific Devision.

Bruce Cassidy ruled Mark Stone out for tonight, but not for the upcoming road trip. Said off the top of his head he thinks Stone will be on it, but not positive yet.

He also said Victor Olofsson "turned a corner" in his recovery but he's still a ways away, won't be on the trip.

— Jesse Granger (@JesseGranger_) November 11, 2024

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Of all teams, division rivals Washington and Pittsburgh made a small trade yesterday, with Lars Eller going to the Caps for a 3rd and 5th rounder. 

Pittsburgh is heading to the basement this year, and losing a third line centre certainly takes things another step in that direction. There isn’t much of a fantasy impact anywhere from this deal. 

This does indicate that Washington believes their start is for real, so it probably isn’t the first forward acquisition they make. With their D core finally healthy, and a cheap pair of goalies, there’s less room there for an easy improvement on the trade market. That might mean an eventually demotion for a few forwards such as Aliaksei Protas, Jakub Vrana, and Andrew Mangiapane. 

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I’ve had to fill a few minors slots lately jn my one cap dynasty, and all of the well-known prospects are picked through. There are only two remaining in the FA pile that are owned in 10% or more fantasy leagues, and only 14 who are owned in 5% or more. For those of you in leagues like mine where nearly 1000 players are rostered (24 teams with 25 Pro and 15 minors slots per team). It’s not easy to find diamonds in the rough at that point, but there are a few names in the group of under 5% owned in Fantrax that I have added to my minors squad in the last few weeks because they have some decent upside. 

Viktor Neuchev 

Second among forwards on the Rochester Americans AHL team, Neuchev is out-pacing Noah Ostlund, Jiri Kulich, and Konsta Helenius, showing that he might be the next forward that deserves a roster spot up with the Sabres. The former fourth round pick is on an upward trajectory, and should either get some NHL games in the next year, or be traded to a team that has space for him. 

Ilya Protas

The younger brother of Aliaksei Protas was also selected by Washington, and seems to be adapting to the North American game the same way his older brother did – with great success. He has 19 points through his first 15 games, and is showing that he really knows how to use his size.

His brother was also an underrheralded mid-round pick that had a sizeable runway and took advantage. A lot of the same ingredients are there for Ilya now that eventually has seen Aliaksei pacing for 76 points in the NHL right now. Hopefully the Capitals can duplicate the development. 

Sawyer Mynio 

I don’t have many defencemen on my minors roster right now and ended up costing between Taryn Smith and Mynio for the add to fill my empty slot. Mynio win or thanks to a few things he has going for him. Right now he’s producing very well in the WHL, keeping his upwards trajectory going with regards to his PNHLe. The Canucks also don’t have a ton barring his way on the left side, and with the size he has Mynio could be given a shot sooner rather than later. On top of all that, it sounds like he’s a very real candidate to get one of the six defence slots for Canada at the World Juniors this year. That always helps boost a prospect’s trade value. 

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I won’t have the Cap League skater or goalie rankings updated this month due to a lack of free time to be able to update all the sheets and data properly. However, I’ll use my Ramblings next week to answer a few cap league related questions for those of you itching to get an answer on something or waiting to see a specific data point. Feel free to get those to me via my Twitter or Bluesky handles below. 

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But first, your highlight of the night:

Gabriel Vilardi's Louvre submission for the year.

A glove tap to Nikolaj Ehlers' pass, too, but Vilardi's mid-air magic makes this an unforgettable goal:pic.twitter.com/3srJhlWfXs

— Murat Ates (@WPGMurat) November 13, 2024

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See you next Wednesday, and if you want to keep up with it you can find me on BlueSky here, or Twitter/X here if you have any fantasy hockey questions or comments.