Welcome back to another edition of the Roos Lets Loose monthly mailbag, where I answer your fantasy hockey questions by giving advice that should be useful to all poolies even if they don't own the specific players being discussed. As a reminder, if you want your fantasy hockey question(s) answered in the next mailbag, check out the end of the column, where I explain the ways to get it/them to me as well as the details you should provide when sending. The earlier you send a question the more likely it is to be included in the mailbag, and the deeper dive I can provide with my reply.

Question #1 (from Mario)

I'm in an 12 team, H2H (Yahoo) league where each team rosters 18 players, 4 via keepers and 14 via a draft, with starting line-ups of 2C, 2RW, 2LW, 4D, 2G, 1Util, 5 Bench, 2IR+, and with scoring categories of G, A, PIM, PPPts, HIT, BLK, SOG, +/-, W, GAA, SV%, plus a minimum of three goalie appearances per team per week. Only 5 trades per team are allowed, but there are unlimited pick-ups and drops.

Last season I finished 4th, and my first three draft picks will be 15th, 27th, and 34th overall, meaning yes, I have no first-round pick. My goal is to skew young with keepers, but try to remain competitive. Here is my roster as of the end of 2024-25. Which four would you keep?

F: Filip Forsberg, Steven Stamkos, Ivan Demidov, Andrei Svechnikov, Wyatt Johnston, Mika Zibanejad, Dylan Cozens, Sam Reinhart, Owen Tippett, Matthew Knies.

D: Victor Hedman, Shea Theodore, Drew Doughty, Jakob Chychrun, Nikita Zadorov.

G: Darcy Kuemper

With four keepers, but 13 players in one's active line-up, I'd say keepers matter, but not a huge amount. In other words, it would take a lot for someone's keepers to put them in a commanding position to win, yet, by the same token, to dig them into such a hole as to prevent them from being able to win.

If you were going to ask me who would be the four best keepers overall, I'd probably say Forsberg and Johnston for sure, then two of Demidov, Reinhart, Knies, Hedman and Theodore. I love Forsberg for these categories, and the fact that despite the trainwreck which was Nashville last season he was still nearly a point per game player plus seemingly is not showing signs of age-related decline. Johnston is ideal since he's both very good now and could get quite a bit better, as the list of wingers who, dating back to 2000-01, had at least two seasons of 30+ goals and 200+ SOG by age 21 includes a couple of players who didn't pan out as hoped in Jeff Skinner and Patrik Laine, but also Alex Ovechkin, David Pastrnak, Ilya Kovalchuk, and Marian Gaborik, who was doing quite well until injuries took hold.

As for the others, Hedman has been up and down recently, and, if the pattern continues, should rise again. But I'm concerned he is now 34, plus, on top of 1132 regular season games, his games played in the playoffs is more than two full regular seasons' worth of contests. Theodore is a top tier offensive defensemen when he plays. It's the when part that is the issue. But one key is when he was hurt last season, Noah Hanifin played superbly; yet when Theodore returned, he was put right back in his usual spot. Plus, if Alex Pietrangelo does miss all of 2025-26, Hanifin will be tasked with playing the tough minutes that Theodore just cannot play, leaving Theodore to shine offensively. Reinhart, after a huge 2023-24, fell to his scoring rate of 2022-23. I believe he caught lightning in a bottle for 2023-24, and is an 80–85-point player. And with no added benefit for goals, that is quite good but not superb. As for Knies, some feel the loss of Mitch Marner could take a toll on him; but I'm not one of them. Instead, I believe this will solidify Knies' spot on PP1 and give him more and better minutes. Demidov is highly touted and seemed to step right into the NHL. He might be a very special player…but who knows?

Let's think about what happens if you don't keep a player. There will be 48 players kept, and then another 168 drafted, for a total of 216 players owned. Why I raised this is to wonder if there is any realistic way that Demidov might not be drafted. Perhaps if he hadn't dazzled for such a high-profile team like Montreal in those two games I'd say maybe; however, there is no way someone doesn't pick him. Of course, just because he is not kept doesn't mean he cannot be redrafted.

I think if youth is a motivator, Johnston is a must keep. Not only did he accomplish what I noted above, but he did so despite only the 58th highest average TOI per game among all forwards who appeared in at least half their teams' games, and the 50th highest PPTOI per game. A new coach almost assuredly will lean on him more, giving him a chance to shine even brighter. I also feel like Knies is a must keep, what with him likely to do well and contribute across several categories. With him, you should still get at least 80% of the offense as you would with Forsberg, plus comparable multicat stats, from someone who is eight years younger. So Knies is also a keep. Reinhart is fine; however, with him unable to replicate his success of 2023-24, plus being nearly 30 and a veteran of ten full seasons, I think he has settled into a point per game player, which, when talking about four keepers and focusing on youth, does not cut it. As for Theodore, yes, he too is 30; however, with the games he's missed his legs are younger. And he is so great when he plays, plus this is a league with five bench spots and 2 IR, so I like him as a keep. With that though, I'm not keeping Hedman. I fear father time is catching up to him, and he has more name value now than actual value.

So, the keeps are Johnston, Knies and Theodore. That leaves the remaining spot between Forsberg and Demidov. Given that the team wants to prioritize youth, I can get behind keeping Demidov. Of course, I realize two games is as small a sample size as one can get; however, he has shined at every stage of his career and I see no reason why that cannot happen in Montreal, a team on the rise. But if you think Forsberg gives you too much to toss back, I can certainly get behind keeping him instead. Good luck!

Question #2 (from Dwayne)

I'm in a 12-team roto league which I won convincingly last season. I can only keep 7 players (2 of which must be rookies, defined as having played <165 NHL games) of the 21 players on my end of season roster. Categories are G, A, PIMs, Hits, Blocks, +/-, Takeaways, SOG, Wins, Saves, and Shutouts. Each category is worth up to 120 points (120 for ranking first, 110 for ranking second, etc.), except +/- and shutouts, which are "half" categories, meaning first gets 60, second 55, etc. Rosters are set daily with 6F, 4D, and 2G active. Each team gets a reserve of 6 players and 2 rookies which can be activated any time. In the case of activating a rookie, there needs to be a corresponding rookie on the active roster to swap out. Thus, I like to have 4 rookies on my overall roster for flexibility, and it has served me well. There are a total of only 5 waiver pickups per season and a 15 round entry draft. Draft picks can be, and quite often are, traded in the offseason.

As of the end of 2024-25, my team included, notably, Jake Guentzel, Adrian Kempe, Kirill Marchenko, Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, Jesper Bratt, Mark Scheifele, Clayton Keller, Matvei Michkov (rookie), Jack Hughes (was in one of two IR spots), Mathieu Olivier, Rasmus Dahlin, MacKenzie Weegar, Nikita Zadorov, Brandt Clarke (rookie), Jackson Lacombe (rookie), Thomas Harley, Connor Hellebuyck, Filip Gustavsson, and Igor Shesterkin. High volume goalies and multi-cat defensemen are either kept or drafted quite early. Not only did I win, but I have all of my early picks, except rounds 1 and 5, which I might reacquire during the offseason in exchange for the best of my non-keepers. Who would be your keepers if you were me? I'm leaning towards Matthews, Marner, Dahlin, Weegar, Hellebuyck, Michkov (rookie), and Clarke (rookie).

Let me lead by saying what I always say in this situation, which is if you won your league, I'm inclined "trust" your instincts. But I will, of course, assess things objectively to be sure they check out.

The easy part is the farm, which I think you nailed in Michkov and Clarke. Michkov is not even up for debate. As for Clarke, following 11 points in his first 13 games, he tallied just 12 more in his remaining 65 contests. And it was not solely a function of Drew Doughty, as his first game wasn't until after the midpoint of the season, meaning Clarke's production lagged even before Doughty was back in the picture. Still, Clarke's future seems very bright, as LA had zero defensemen in April's most recent list of the top 50 Fantasy Prospect Defensemen. So Clarke is poised to be a big part of LA's blueline soon, and for years to come. As for LaCombe, he played well; but with Olen Zellweger and Pavel Mintyukov in the wings, I feel it is a not a question of if, but rather when one or both of the two eat significantly into LaCombe's playing time and favorable deployment. So I'm fully on board with Clarke over LaCombe.

As for the main roster guys, if there are any others to take the spot of one or more of the five, I feel it would be Hughes, Bratt, or Keller. Marchenko has played well, but he is not in the same echelon as these three, nor those on your list. Scheifele, Guentzel and Gus also would be great to get back; but what this is underscoring is you should indeed have the caliber of non-keepers that would be good enough to entice another team into trading, hopefully to restock your draft picks.

Of the five on your projected list, Weegar is the who concerns me most. For sure he was amazing to own last season. The issue is he is not a prototype PP1 QB. Yes, he finished 13th in both PPTOI and PPP among d-men last season; however, that was despite a 63.6% PP IPP, meaning he somehow managed to get a point on two-thirds of the PPG scored while he was on the ice. You might be thinking that 63.6% is very good, and indeed it is; however, for his PP IPP to be that high, yet his PPP total to have been only 21 is an indication that although he finds a way to factor into PP scoring, not a lot of PP scoring occurs when he is on the ice. The other key is 19-year-old Zayne Parekh got a cameo for Calgary last season despite him being just 19 years old, and saw nearly 50% of Calgary's PP time in that lone game. Parekh also tore up the OHL to the tune of 96 and 107 points in his last two seasons. Maybe Weegar finds a way to stay in the PP1 picture for another season, or even two, but Parekh definitely looms. And let's also not forget that at time the Flames have turned to Rasmus Andersson to run PP1, and they could again, especially since Weegar is a better all-around defensemen, who may have more value eating up tougher minutes.

My take is trade Weegar now, as I fear his value will only drop. In his place, I'm keeping Jack Hughes. I realize his future is uncertain; however, what he has shown when healthy is quite amazing, with the stat I keep coming back to being that him and Mario Lemieux are the only two centers in NHL history who, by age 21, had at least one season of 100+ points and 4.3 SOG per game. With him, it's hold and hope.

It's also too tough a pill to swallow to not keep Keller. I realize he is not great in multicat, but he had 49 points in his last 40 games, which is at the level Marner was in Toronto. Of course, Keller does not have the name value of Marner though, but they are about equal in multicat. So I think trading Marner and keeping Keller is a better idea. That leaves Bratt. Admittedly he did slow once Jack Hughes was out of the line-up; so putting two eggs in that basket might be risky. He too seems like good trade bait though, as many will see him as a rising star with still more to perhaps be gained.

So keep Matthews, Dahlin, and Hellebuyck, about whom there can be no debate, and Hughes and Keller. Trade Weegar, Bratt, and anyone else for picks. Rookie keeps are Michkov and Clarke. Good luck!

Question #3 (from Dave)

I have two questions for you. The first is with New York having drafted Matthew Schaefer first overall, will he jump straight to the NHL? If so, what should we expect? The second pertains to the Rangers. With a new coach coming in, do you see Mika Zibanejad playing RW with JT Miller, or moving down to center the third line? I feel RW is probably where he should transition full time, as it's a position of need in NY and it will take some pressure off him defensively.

Pop quiz – how many defensemen in NHL history have appeared in 41+ games while producing at better than a point per game rate at age 18, which is how old Schaefer would be for 2025-26? Well, there have been a total of only 22 d-men who played 41+ games at age 18, of whom just three – Bobby Orr (41 points in 61 games in 1966-67), Phil Housley (66 points in 77 games in 1982-82) and Rasmus Dahlin (44 points in 82 games in 2018-19) managed to best the point per every other game mark. But there were six others who produced at just below that rate, namely 0.4-0.5 points per game.

Why so few? Keep in mind that teams are often leery of rushing defensemen into the NHL mix, fearing it could curb their development. But Schaefer might be likened to Dahlin, as both were first overall picks and for teams that needed lots of help on the blueline. Then again, if the Isles are planning to tank for Gavin McKenna, why would they rush Schaefer into the NHL, especially since it would burn a year of his ELC? So I'd say the chance of him playing more than the nine "free" games allowed are at best 25%, and if he does, I'd say 35-40 points would be the high end of what to expect him to produce.

As for Zibanejad, he has always been a great two-way player and has 4+ SHP in five of the last six seasons, and in fact no one has more SHPs in the last six seasons as he does. Father Time does seem to be catching up to him; but at $8.5M per season for four more years, I do not see a universe where he is relegated to the third line unless his offense truly sputters. Most likely he will shift to RW as you said, landing in the top six. Less clear, however, is if he will slot alongside Artemi Panarin and Vincent Trocheck, who seem to be permanently paired, or instead with Miller and, presumably, Will Cuylle, meaning Alexis Lafreniere would be RW with Trocheck and Panarin. Of course, the Rangers have a new coach coming in, so things could unfold differently. There is also the chance that New York, despite being a huge market team and thus making a rebuild difficult to entertain, may try to sacrifice near term success to help increase the chances of better future results, especially since it is widely expected that Artemi Panarin, a UFA after 2025-26, will sign elsewhere. Good questions!

Question #4 (from Greg)

I’m in a Yahoo! 16 Team, Keep 8, H2H league with a farm that allows up to 7 players on it, who can be farmed until they hit 3 seasons of 26+ NHL games (or 31+ for goalies). The farm is separate from the main keepers list and farm players can be brought up as soon as the season starts.

Categories are G, A, SOG, PPP, GWG, SHG, +/-, Wins, GAA, SV%, SHO, and rosters are 2C, 2RW, 2LW, 4F, 4D, 1G, 6 Bench, 2-IR+, and 1NA. I've been competitive for the past two seasons after a bit of a rebuild, and made some moves this year to try and go for it but fell short. I’m still intent on playing to win, although I do also realize my keeper options might make that an uphill battle.

Currently my keeper list is Mitch Marner, Kevin Fiala, Ilya Sorokin, Josh Morrissey, Kirill Marchenko, and Quinton Byfield, with two others TBD. My farm keepers will be Connor Bedard, Frank Nazar, Zeev Buium, Pavel Mintyukov, Joseph Woll, plus Fraser Minten, Maxim Tsyplakov or Noah Cates.

The others I'm considering for my final two main roster keeper spots are Connor McMichael, Alex Ovechkin, Brock Boeser, Joel Eriksson Ek, and Mika Zibanejad. I also have Dougie Hamilton and Seth Jones as well, but I’m hoping one or both of Buium or Mintyukov can step in and provide somewhat similar production this year, so I wasn't planning to keep either Hamilton to Jones.

Short of taking a swing at a big name by dangling someone like Marchenko, who do you see as my last two keepers? I’m leaning toward McMichael as one, in hopes that he can build on his breakout from this past season. And what about my last farm keeper?

Let's start with an overview of the league. With 16 teams and eight keepers per team, that is 108 main keepers in total, plus another nearly 100 farmed players. Skater categories are weighted toward goal scorers, as beyond just G and SOG, there is GWGs and SHGs. SHGs don't always correlate exactly to goal scoring in general, nor do GWGs per se; however, if given the choice between two forwards, one who is likely to score only 70 points but have a shot at 35 goals and the other who is likely to get his 70 points via 20 goals and 50 assists, I'm taking the first player all day long.

For starters, I believe Ovi is still a keeper. He tied for third in goals and was barely outside the top 20 in SOG, while tied for 15th in GWG. Yes, he is going to slow, but since you can still keep a lot of young talent via other keepers and the farm, he is 100% a keeper in my book until proven otherwise. Who to remove for Ovi? I'd say Marchenko. He had a very solid season overall, but there is a bit of a forward logjam in Columbus, making it so I'm not certain he will keep his spot on PP1. Also, even though he didn't hit is 200 game breakout threshold until later in the season, he actually slowed quite a bit, with 27 points in his last 36 games after starting with 43 in his first 43 contests. He'd be a fine player to have; however, he's not a keeper when Ovi is an option. Trade Marchenko, as you said you'd be willing to do.

But I'm not stopping there, as I'm also not keeping Byfield, who stayed stuck in neutral both in terms of scoring and SOG, this despite his TOI per game rising by over two minutes. Also, his power play time somehow went down, likely due to horrible PP IPPs the last two seasons of 36.8% and 42.6%. And I remain cautious about him due to his size. Past results do not dictate future outcomes; but since 2000-01, only 18 forwards as tall or taller and as heavy or heavier than Byfield played 250+ NHL games, with only Mats Sundin, Keith Primeau, Nik Antropov, Anthony Mantha, and Martin Hanzal averaging even point per every other game scoring. And while most poolies are aware of injury issues derailing what looked to be a promising career for Mantha, they might not realize the same happened to Primeau, Antropov and Hanzal. And all due respect to Byfield, Sundin was superb from day one, so he's not an apt comparison. But there is Tage Thompson, who is faring well and took a few years to hit his stride; so that might be where Byfield owners hope he lands. Still, of 18 there was just one major success, some decent players who had injury issues, and more than half not panning out. So in the end, I'm not keeping him, instead opting for JEE, who will likely slot right back in the top six and on PP1, where he's fared quite well.

Also, I favor Jones over Morrissey. Yes, just two seasons ago Morrissey was nearly a point per gamer. But since then, his scoring rate has dropped twice, and he ended 2024-25 with 23 points in 36 games, this despite the Jets being one of the best offensive teams in the NHL last season. Also, it cannot be ignored that Neal Pionk not only is now paid more than Morrissey but the one and only time Pionk took the ice for more than 44.5% of his team's PP time, he did so for 62.7% and had 25 PPP in 71 games. On the other hand, there is Jones, who for sure has not lived up to expectations and did not thrive upon landing in Florida. But he will be running PP1 and should sleepwalk his way to 50 points, with a realistic shot of 60-70 if the Panthers stay as potent. I'm opting for him over Morrissey.

Fiala was a consideration to not keep as well; however, I like his bounce back potential. Also, even as he didn't fare as well as usual, he set a career best in goals, which, as I noted, matter here. I realize you are bullish on McMichael; however, like Marchenko he actually started to fare worse as he hit his breakout threshold, with 37 points in his final 60 games after 20 in his first 22 contests. And even as he was doing well, he did not earn a spot on PP1. I don't fault you for considering him given what he did show early on and the team for which he plays; however, I think he'd be outclassed as a keeper. So in the end, I'd swap in Ovi, JEE and Jones for Marchenko, Byfield, and Morrissey. Good luck!

Question #5 (from Josh)

Based on offseason trades, signings, etc., what are some examples of skaters who have seen their fantasy value drop the most? Maybe list a couple of defensemen and several forwards?

At the outset, this will be based solely on player transactions. I already covered the impact of coaching changes in my most recent mailbag.

I'll start with Aaron Ekblad. The reality is that Ekblad has only once averaged more than a point per every other game if he took the ice for less than 50% of Florida's PP time. And the addition of Seth Jones figures to relegate Ekblad to PP2, and less than 50% of PP time. Ekblad also has seen his SOG rate drop by a full shot from 2022-23. He will benefit from the Florida offense in front of him, but not to an extent that will allow him to produce at even a 40-point rate.

Although it has been discussed all over the place, I have to mention Noah Dobson. This is a player who scored 70 points two seasons ago. But make no mistake – it's the Lane Hutson show in Montreal, with Dobson, at best, perhaps finding a way to land on PP1 if Montreal runs its top unit with 2D. But that is unlikely, and thus the new normal for Dobson might be what he produced last season, which, prior to him being traded, was seen as an outlier.

Turning to forward, there's Brad Marchand. We all saw he thrived in the playoffs; however, when it comes time for the regular season, I cannot see a universe where Marchand is in the top six or on PP1. Given this, and the fact he was already slowing, my guess is he could struggle to top 50 points, but will be seen by many as capable of much more.

I'm also concerned we're nearing the end of Eeli Tolvanen's chances to fulfill the lofty expectations which have accompanied him since being drafted in the first round in 2017. With how much Mason Marchment is being paid, plus the continued emergence of Kaapo Kakko and Shane Wright, I feel Tolvanen will be deemphasized.

Nick Schmaltz's value has definitely dropped as well. He has remained a solid producer, albeit one who is frequently injured. But with little doubt that PP1 will feature Clayton Keller, Dylan Guenther and Logan Cooley, the addition of JJ Peterka likely pushes Schmaltz to PP2. That is significant, as 25 of the 63 points Schmaltz scored in 2024-25 came on the power play.

And in ending 2024-25 with ten points in 12 games, Nils Hoglander seemed on the verge of finally connecting the dots. Enter Evander Kane though, who'll but assuredly push Hoglander down the depth chart at ES and perhaps out of the PP picture entirely.

Lastly, Reilly Smith seems like the only assured "loser" based on Mitch Marner's arrival in Vegas. Smith had better than point per game production despite only 15:26 per game and under a minute of man advantage time. And although he might not see much less ice time, it likely will be with linemates who are not as talented. Good question!

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I'm always looking for mailbag questions, so don't hesitate to send them to me. You can get do so in one of two ways: (1) by emailing them to [email protected] with the words "Roos Mailbag" as the subject line, or (2) by sending them to me via a private message on the DobberHockey Forums, where my username is "rizzeedizzee".

When sending me your questions, remember to provide as much detail about your league/situation as possible. Examples of things I need to know include what type of league you're in (i.e., limited keeper, dynasty, or one-year; roto vs. H2H; auction – if so, what the budget is – or non-auction), how many teams are in the league, does the salary cap matter, how many players are rostered (and of those, how many start at each position as well as how many bench and/or IR spots there are), what categories are scored and how are they weighted, plus other details if pertinent.

If your question involves whether to pick up or drop a player, give me a list of top free agents available and let me know if the number of pick-ups is limited or if there is a priority system for pick-ups. If you're thinking of making a trade, it would be good to know not only the roster of the other team you might trade with but also where you stand in your categories. If your question involves keepers, in addition to giving me the options for who to keep, let me know if offseason trading is allowed and to what extent it is a viable option given your league.

In sum, the key is to tell me enough for me to give you a truly proper answer, and for readers of this column to benefit from the answer/advice I provide. When in doubt, it's best to err on the side of inclusion since I can always omit or disregard things that don't matter.