Matthew Schaefer signed his ELC on Monday, and while it didn't seem like the NCAA was ever a serious consideration for him, it does rule it out as an option now. With the current outlook being NHL or OHL for Schaefer, a nine-game trial is likely the minimum of the time he'll see at the NHL level this year. However, after missing so much development time, in the long run a full season at the OHL level would not be a bad thing, especially since the Islanders have a lot of options on defense and aren't necessarily looking to ice their best team this year no matter the cost.

For those of you hoping for more than nine games out of Schaefer this year, my advice is: prepare to be disappointed. However, for a contrasting opinion, Dobber does have Schaefer in the Fantasy Guide with an 80% likelihood to make the team, so there are many people who are more confident in him sticking around than I am.

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The other contract that we saw get signed on Monday was Sam Colangelo. He signed a two-year deal with a two-way contract for the 2025-26 season, which turns into a one-way deal the following year. I can almost guarantee that if he doesn't end up making the team this year in a full-time role, then he will be profiled in the guide next year as one of the players to watch due to their one-way contract status.

What I see with these deals that have the framework of a year or two with a two-way setup, and then the year or two following that as a one-way setup, it means that the team is on the fence about whether there is room or there has been enough growth from the player for them to make the team for the first year, but that they think there is at least a two-in-three chance that they make the team the following year.

Colangelo fits the bill here, as he just put up a point-per-game season at the AHL level as a rookie, but there isn't much room on the roster for him this year. Next year, with another year of growth from Colangelo, on top of a few UFA contracts expiring, his chances are much better at making a real impact for the team. Perhaps even as high up the lineup as a second-line winger.

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Over on the forums, 18 members have their annual mock draft underway, where the even serves as a mock draft for fantasy this upcoming year in a multi-category league that's about as general as can be (to make it more relatable and useful for those participating to then apply to their own drafts) while also tracking the results of the draft through the year to both give a sense of competition to the draft, as well as allowing for some proper reflection on strategies from the year before.

I don't participate myself, partially due to the time commitment, but also because I find it fascinating to see where players I like might slip to if I wasn't in the draft to take them a little earlier. This then gives me a great framework to research from for my own redraft leagues, and for mapping out strategies of when tiers from specific positions occur and when they might drop off.

For goalies it's especially relevant, and while this mock draft and its 18 teams might not be properly indicative of where goalies will go in every other draft, it will show where the tiers are, and how soon after the first goalies go from a tier that we get to the end of that same tier. As someone who waits on goalies (and sometimes defensemen too) as long as I can, it's a key piece of information for my draft strategies.

I'm looking forward to mock-draft season starting up over the next little while and being able to get into all those theoretical discussions again.

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Looking at the first 18 picks in the draft, there are a few notes to make already.

To ruin the surprise, Brady Tkachuk was the first-overall pick, and it makes sense in a league like this where the peripherals are weighted as much as the points. Brady gets you a huge advantage in the peripherals, and at least doesn't really hurt your team in the scoring categories. I do think he has a season of 90+ points in him, so if he hits on that as well as adding close to 300 Hits and four shots per game, then no one is going to debate you on the selection.

Connor McDavid went second, Nathan MacKinnon third, and Leon Draisaitl… seventh. After McDavid and B Tkachuk, there's a plateau with the superstar players, and I think it extends to at least the eight slot and maybe past that depending on how you feel about a few other players. I have one draft where we get to pick our slots, and if I don't select first or second, then this year I'm again going to be aiming for a pick at eight or nine. It feels like a steal getting Draisaitl at seven, but none of the picks before him are bad selections, and Auston Matthews at eight looks like just as much of a bargain.

Matthews is going to be an interesting case study after a difficult year. Does he turn it around this year because he's healthy, because his percentages improve, or maybe because Mitch Marner moving on means Matthews ends up with the puck even more? Or, have we seen the best from Matthews already, and this past year's 40-goal pace will be the new norm instead of pushing 60?

I think we'll be able to harbor a great guess after just the preseason and maybe the first week of the regular season, looking at how dynamic he appears to be on the ice, as well as the shot rate. If it's below 4.0 per game again, then we may be in for another year with sub-40 goals, and some missed games along the way.

Looking at the goaltenders and defensemen, there were three of each gone in the first 18 picks. Cale Makar, Quinn Hughes, and Rasmus Dahlin were the defensemen, and Connor Hellebuyck, Andrei Vasilevskiy, and Jake Oettinger made up the initial goalie group. No big surprises with the top names. Makar is the best defenseman, no question. Hughes has the next-highest scoring upside, while Dahlin brings excellent peripherals without sacrificing the scoring (more on him in Rick's article today as well).

Hellebuyck is the first goalie off the board, and in the top-10 no-less. Despite the fantastic results, I'm still not a full believer in Winnipeg, who doesn't have a superstar player, has lost some depth, and is going to again be relying on some fantastic goalie play, which is always a dangerous wager. While I may be willing to spend a top-30 pick on a goalie in certain setups, I would rather take Oettinger ten picks later, or better yet, grab someone like Jacob Markstrom or Filip Gustavsson just outside the top-50. We'll see how long those names slide, but taking the high-end skaters yields much more consistent and high-end results, rather than trying to shore up the most volatile position first.

With the picks at the beginning of the second round, I'm realizing that there's a very wide tier here of players who I like and recognize as very good players, but also who I am not excited about possibly spending such a high pick to acquire. The Filip Forsbergs, the Sam Reinharts, and the William Nylanders are all very good and safe picks, but there's a big tier here of at least a dozen players I would be just as happy to pick, and I expect a couple of those names I would list will be around 20 or 30 picks later.

I'm not sure there's much to be done about it in most drafts when you can't choose where you're picking, but it just means you probably have to plan out a list at least to get through the top-50 if you're possibly going to be under any kind of time pressure, because a mistake there could be killer.

You can find the mock draft results here.

https://forums.dobbersports.com/showthread.php?269212-NHL-Mock-Draft-2025-2026-Picks

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In our version of "news you might have missed yesterday", we have two bullets:

Anton Khudobin officially announced his retirement after 14 seasons, where he had a few seasons as being one of the best backup goalies in the league.

Vitaly Kravtsov signed a two-way deal with the Vancouver Canucks, which will likely see him playing in the AHL this year, but if there is a path back to NHL redemption then this is the start of it. I'm not doing anything more than adding him to my watchlist at this point, even in the deepest of leagues.

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See you next Wednesday, and if you have any fantasy hockey questions or comments you can find me on BlueSky @alexdmaclean.