Over my last three Ramblings, I have been previewing my preseason projections, showing one player per team as we make our way through the league. The first Ramblings covered Anaheim through Colorado, the second was Detroit through New Jersey, and the third was Nashville through Seattle. Today, we are finishing things off by going from St. Louis through to Washington and Winnipeg.

As a quick heads up for those that haven't read these projections Ramblings yet: Rookies haven't been added, all players are projected for 82 games played, and there are going to be some tweaks made for age-related progression or decline. All data used for the projections come from Evolving Hockey, AllThreeZones, or Frozen Tools. 

*** For projections covering the entire league, as well as team-by-team reviews, and a bunch of analysis articles covering sleepers, stock drops, a schedule breakdown, and a whole lot more, go grab a copy of the 2025-26 Dobber Hockey Fantasy Guide! ***

St. Louis Blues

The Robert Thomas train has officially left the station now that he has back-to-back 20-goal, 60-assist seasons. This projection thinks things will get even better:

This raised an eyebrow for me because it would give him an 18.1% shooting percentage, and projecting a player for a career-best shooting percentage is always precarious. What is helping here is that my projections believe the Dylan Holloway and Philip Broberg breakouts are definitely real and that Jim Montgomery's impact on the offence (a bottom-5 team in the 100 games before he arrived and a top-5 team after) is mostly genuine. They probably won't be a top-5 team offensively, but they won't be awful, and just staying in the top half of the league is enough to juice Thomas' numbers.

Personally, I would feel a lot more comfortable penciling Thomas in for 25 goals than threatening 30, but the Blues' forward group is very good, and if defencemen like Broberg and Cam Fowler can repeat what they did last year, Thomas could be in for another career year.

Tampa Bay Lightning

One player I'm excited to see in a new location is Jakob Pelletier. I think there is a good player here, so I wanted to see what his projection looked like, and it's nothing special:

An 82-game pace of 11 goals and 12 assists with low peripherals isn't much. The assumption is he's given fourth-line minutes for the majority of the season, and that means 10-11 minutes a game at even strength with minimal power play time. It just isn't enough to sustain any kind of breakout.

For Pelletier to be fantasy-relevant, he needs at least third line/second power play minutes. If he can get 12-13 minutes a game at even strength and a minute per game of power-play time, then we're talking about a potential 15-goal, 40-point player who can cross 100 shots and a hit per game. There would be depth value in multi-cat formats in this instance, but the additions of Yanni Gourde and Oliver Bjorkstrand, on top of young players like Conor Geekie and Gage Goncalves, gives Pelletier a lot of hurdles to clear.

Toronto Maple Leafs

The departure of Mitch Marner has made a lot of us wonder what Toronto will look like offensively this season, so this where Matthew Knies' projections are:

This gives basically no drop-off from last season when he had 29 goals and 29 assists in 78 games. Two reasons for that being that Knies' goal scoring didn't rely on the power play (5/29 goals on the man advantage) and the tracking data showed a sizable improvement in his playmaking. He is also one of the most efficient players in the league by shot selection, having among the lowest rates for the number of shot attempts necessary for every expected goal generated at 5-on-5. A modest improvement in his shot rate helps offset some of the loss of a playmaker like Marner.

In multi-cat leagues, I am still bullish on Knies, even without Marner. If things go very poorly and Knies falls off to 20 goals and 20 assists, there is still a solid shot rate and a pile of hits to support his value. If he can just repeat last year, or somehow improve on it, then he is fantasy gold.   

Utah Mammoth

Even with Clayton Keller being a top-50 fantasy pick and people (correctly) being enamoured with Dylan Guenther, it is Logan Cooley's projection that stood out to me:

Aside from just his talent and career production, the things underpinning this excellent season is another jump in shot volume, a full year as the team's top centre (he skated 19:23 minutes per game in January, February, and March compared to 16:52 per game in the first half of his season), and a full year on the top PP unit (he split time up until the American Thanksgiving holiday). That pushes him well over the 19-minute mark, so the improved assist rate basically comes from additional usage and not any progression from him.

That is what makes this projection pretty nuts. There is no age adjustment done and both Cooley and Guenther will pass the 200-game threshold this season, as JJ Peterka did last year. Once those adjustments are done, he may be closer to a 30-goal, 55-assist guy. There could also be solid peripherals here because he can push past 2.0 shots per game, and in the second half last year when his ice time jumped, he had 18 blocks and 34 hits in 38 games. That works out to an 82-game pace of 39 blocks and 73 hits, which is fine. With decent peripherals and high point production upside, this is a guy we shouldn't be surprised to see cruise past 70 points and maybe even 80.   

Vancouver Canucks

If there is one player who made me double- and triple-check my inputs to make sure everything was right – it is – then it's Filip Chytil:

For a guy who averaged 21 goals and 25 assists every 82 games over the last three seasons, seeing a projection for 27 goals and 33 assists turned my head. Then I investigated further and the key here is Chytil's role: in the 14 games he played with the Canucks before being injured, he averaged 17:02 per game, getting top-line usage at even strength and splitting power-play time between the first and second units. It added nearly 2:30 per game compared to what he got in his last few years with the Rangers.

Of course, the giant red flag are the concussion issues. Chytil has played just 66 games over the last two seasons, and we aren't that far removed from Ondrej Kase having his NHL career ended for that reason. By the same token, Sidney Crosby had serious concussion issues earlier in his career and upon returning, he missed a total of 19 games over the next six years. That is the thing with concussions – some players get past them, and some don't. I don't expect Chytil to play all 82 games, but trying to figure out if he plays 42 games or 72 games feels like a waste of time. All we can do is hope he stays healthy because I think he can be a difference-maker for the Canucks and fantasy managers alike.

Vegas Golden Knights

With Marner heading to Vegas, I was interested to see just how much Pavel Dorofeyev's production would be affected, and there is both good news and bad news:

The good news is that this projection isn't terrible; a 27-goal season while surpassing 200 shots gives him some solid value. The problem is he's not a guy to rack up assists and even losing a few power-play assists hurts a lot, as does a modest drop in ice time thanks to Marner's addition and the re-signings of Brandon Saad and Reilly Smith.

The bad news is that, yeah, those additions and the loss of the power-play role is a huge issue. Up until Christmas last season, Dorofeyev skated 26.7% of the team's even-strength ice time. In the playoffs, with Saad and Smith in the lineup, there was a small drop to 26.4%. Now, if we add Marner, that pushes him under 26%. Without a power-play role, he'll be closer to 15:00 or 15:30 per game than he will 16:30 or 17:00, and the goals will take a hit. I am a big fan of Dorofeyev, but there are just too many cooks in this kitchen, and that's not a positive for his fantasy value.

Washington Capitals

The Capitals had some wild percentages last season, Aliaksei Protas especially, and it's why his projection was one to make note of:

A 22-goal, 30-assist season with a power-play point projection under 8 PPPs is a really good year. It is also a substantial decline from the 30 goals and 36 assists he had in 2024-25.

The percentage regressions are what's hurting here. It doesn't only affect Protas, as there is a decline expected for just about every Capitals forward, but this is substantial. What can help offset this drop is a bigger power-play role. On the flipside is that he was never given a regular PP role last season, even on the second unit. The expectation is that he gets some power-play time, which is why he's projected for 7 PPPs, but if he gets no PP time again, then things could get ugly.

Protas is a player that I think is much, much better than the general public realizes but without meaningful power-play minutes on a team that spreads out its ice time, plus all the regression signs, he is probably going to be overvalued in fantasy drafts.

Winnipeg Jets

With Nikolaj Ehlers gone and no real replacement brought in, there is an open spot on Winnipeg's top PP unit. Knowing that, I was interested in where Cole Perfetti's projections landed, and they're pretty good:

It should be noted that Perfetti had 15 power-play points in 82 games last year while Ehlers had 22 in 69 games. Splitting the difference gives us a little over 20 PPPs in 82 games, which is where Perfetti's projection lands. With a small improvement in his play, it all gives us his first 60-point season.

Another thing that should be mentioned here is that Perfetti saw huge jumps in his per-minute rate of hits and blocks compared to his first two seasons: 64% and 39%, respectively. The totals shown in the projection still use the 2023-24 season when those were lower, but if he stays close to what he did in 2024-25 and gets a bit more ice time, he can be a 50-block, hit-per-game player. That is solid peripheral production for a guy that could also put up 60 points.

There should be some concern for Perfetti if only that the team's forward depth outside the top line isn't great, and he loses Ehlers as a line mate at even strength. I do think he at least repeats his 50-point season and if he starts to really assert himself in the league, 60 points is the target.