Over my previous four Ramblings, I looked at some of my preseason projections thus far. We went alphabetically by team with the first group looking at names like Leo Carlsson and Connor Bedard, the second group covering options like Thomas Harley and Trent Frederic, the third group had intriguing players like Luke Evangelista and Mathew Barzal, and we finished with the likes of Filip Chytil and Logan Cooley. Go check those out for some projections discussion.

Keeping those projections in mind, I want to look at Average Draft Positions (ADP). A few weeks ago, I gave some early ADP thoughts (they can be read here) but that was before I had finished my projections. Now that they're mostly done (still some adjustments to make and rookies to add), I want to look at ADPs again. Today, we're going to target players I believe are being overvalued.

As always, this is just my view on things, my projections will change over the next month, and the type of league will greatly affect some players' ADPs. For today, I am considering six skater categories: goals, assists, power-play points, shots, hits, and blocks. I am using early ADP data from Underdog Fantasy (a points system that uses those six categories) as well as Fantrax (which includes all types of formats).

For more in-depth breakdowns as well as projections for the entire league, be sure to pick up a copy of the 2025-26 Dobber Hockey Fantasy Guide, now available in the Dobber Shop!

Mikko Rantanen (Dallas Stars)

Underdog ADP: 11.1 (Winger 5)

Fantrax ADP: 13.1 (Winger 6)

In a 12-team league, Rantanen likely isn't making it past the turn, so anyone wanting to draft him should be ready to use their first-round pick on him. Let me say this: that is a steep price to pay.

Here is how Rantanen's production fared over his final two regular seasons with Colorado, and how he fared in Dallas between the regular season and playoffs, on an 82-game basis:

That is 21 fewer points every 82 games, and a 27% drop in shot volume. It is… a lot.

There are two big issues facing Rantanen:

• He is going to see a big ice time drop. In Colorado last year, he skated 35.9% of the team's even-strength ice time, per Frozen Tools. In Dallas, that dropped to 31%. An average team will get a little over 51:30 per game in even-strength ice time, so that percentage drop in EVTOI for Rantanen is about 2:30 per game in even strength ice time alone. He got significantly elevated usage in the playoffs (34.5%), but even that was far behind what he got in the 2024 postseason with the Avalanche (37.4%). Even if he were to drop just 3% from what he got in Colorado, it's over 1:30 per game. Barring a drastic change in Dallas's entire approach, the best-case scenario is losing 90 seconds per game in even-strength ice time, and the worst-case scenario is double that.
• In the 2025 postseason, Rantanen saw about two-thirds of Dallas's power-play ice time. In the 2024 postseason, that number was over 83% for Rantanen in Colorado. It was about the same difference during the regular season. Colorado's top PP unit was more proficient last year, and if that top PP unit in Dallas doesn't get a lot better this season, he's looking at a PPTOI drop on top of a team efficiency drop.

Dallas is a great offensive team, so maybe there is a bit of efficiency that will help soften the blow, but the fact is that if Rantanen is lucky, he'll only lose about two minutes per game in offensive ice time, and there are scenarios where it's three minutes or more. If Rantanen can stay around the 20-minute mark, maybe he can push to 100 points in a great year. If he's closer to 19 minutes and just has a normal (for him) season by efficiency, he is an 80- to 90-point player who doesn't hit or block much. Dallas generates way fewer shots than Colorado, and Rantanen isn't a big shot volume option on a per-minute basis. If he doesn't hit, block, or shoot a lot, and loses 15-25 points from his Colorado days, how much really separates him from wingers going in the next 1-2 rounds like Kyle Connor, William Nylander, Sam Reinhart, Artemi Panarin, or Jesper Bratt?  

Alex Ovechkin

Underdog ADP: 36.2 (Winger 17)

Fantrax ADP: 40.8 (Winger 24)

It probably shouldn't need to be said, but we'll say it anyway: no matter the player, if someone sets a career-high at the age of 39, as Ovechkin did when he shot 18.6% in 2024-25, then it should be a big red flag. He had gone four straight years shooting 15% or less and averaged 13.6% in that span. Ovechkin also managed 26.5 shot attempts per 60 minutes of ice time, his highest mark in nearly a decade (29.1 in 2015-16). A normal year for his goal scoring at this stage of his career would have meant 31 goals instead of 44. It would still have him push for 40 goals in an 82-game year, so that's something to keep in mind, but it's still a lot of goals.

Like Rantanen, there is also an ice time concern. Ovechkin averaged 17:43 per game last season, by far the lowest mark of his career and 90 seconds per game lower than the year before. Even at just 17:30 per game, with regressions in shot volume and shooting percentage, there isn't much wiggle room to have a down year. Any sort of player or team regression, at that level of ice time, is very bad news.

I don't have any real problem with taking Ovechkin in the fourth round, but it's one of those things where it's hard to see a huge profit. Maybe he keeps up career-best percentages and decade-high shot rates, but at the age of 40, I'm going to bet against that, and would rather wait a round or two and grab younger players like Dylan Guenther or Seth Jarvis.  

Victor Hedman

Underdog ADP: 71.2 (Defence 10)

Fantrax ADP: 34 (Defence 6)

Here are Hedman's per-game peripheral changes across two separate two-year spans, the first being 2021-2023 and the second being 2023-2025, and the average change among all defencemen in those two spans:

The shot drop is similar, even if Hedman's dropped more, but the hit and block changes are miles apart. Over the last two seasons, Hedman has averaged 54 hits and 123 blocks every 82 games, compared to 98 hits and 138 blocks every 82 games the two years prior. There has been a noticeable decline in his peripheral output which has been hidden by very good point production, averaging 74 points every 82 games over these last two campaigns.

In my projections, Hedman comes in closer to the Thomas Harley/Noah Dobson tier than he does the Moritz Seider/Jake Sanderson tier. In other words, closer to a top-15-or-later defenceman than a top-10-or-earlier defenceman. Depending on the league, we are talking 2-4 rounds of lost value.

In a straight-up points-only format, I very much understand drafting Hedman as a top-10 defenceman, as he's ranked 11^th by my projections when counting just goals and assists. In any sort of multi-category format, though, the fact that Hedman's peripherals keep declining is a concern, and he turns 35 years old in December. I'll let someone else draft Hedman as I grab Harley three rounds later.

Shea Theodore

Underdog ADP: 113.2 (Defence 18)

Fantrax ADP: 61.9 (Defence 15)

As a longtime Shea Theodore Enthusiast, I very much understand the hype around this upcoming season. He has 99 points in his last 114 games, which is a 71-point pace in an 82-game season. There is the unfortunate injury to Alex Pietrangelo, which theoretically opens Theodore to more minutes at all strengths, and a lack of ice time is part of what holds Theodore back from really threatening for a point-per-game season.

This is the 'fun' part: when Pietrangelo missed a couple weeks late in the year, Theodore's share of even strength ice time went from 35.9% to 33.8%. Not a typo – Theodore lost ice time with Pietrangelo injured. That was late in the year when Vegas was gearing up for the postseason, which, fine, ok. In the playoffs, Pietrangelo missed one game and in that game, Zach Whitecloud was given top minutes at even strength while Theodore remained on the second pair. It's just one game, but these are a couple of small samples with Pietrangelo out of the lineup and Theodore not seeing an ice-time increase.

Over a full season, I do think Theodore picks up a little bit of ice time, but I really don't think it's the year he jumps to 24 minutes a game or something. Then there's the little issue of his health as he hasn't played 70 games in three straight seasons and has averaged 56 games played in those three years.

If all goes right – Theodore picks up about a minute per game, plays 80 games, and Vegas is a top-5 offence – then yeah, Theodore can be a top-10 fantasy defenceman. But that is a lot of 'ifs' and it's not as if there's much of a discount at the draft table. I am a big fan of Theodore's, but drafting him around the 15^th defenceman in a multi-cat league feels like drafting at his realistic ceiling unless he stays healthy and has a career year. I would be fine taking him around the 25^th defenceman, but he's just not falling that far.