In my Ramblings last Friday, I started a three-part series looking at arbitrage drafting options for this season. That post covered defencemen, and today we're moving to wingers.

The concept of arbitrage in fantasy sports in straightforward: which undervalued player at a given position has similar projections to an overvalued player at the same position? For example, if two left wingers are projected for a similar season, and one is an 8^th-round pick and the other is a 12^th-round pick, that is an arbitrage opportunity to pick the 12^th-round option. It is that simple.

We are going to use positional designations and ADP data from FanTrax, so things may vary from site to site. Skaters have six categories: goals, assists, power-play points, shots, hits, and block. These are my personal projections, and each player is projected for 82 games except those we know are injured long-term like Matthew Tkachuk. Data for the projections come from Evolving Hockey, AllThreeZones, and Frozen Tools.  

Jason Robertson (LW, ADP: 27.3) and Nikolaj Ehlers (LW, ADP: 68.3)

Here are my 82-game projections for these two supremely talented wingers:

Aside from Robertson having an edge in hits (though not a high total), these two are projected for fairly similar seasons. It isn't as far-fetched as the ADPs might make it seem, as the last two years have seen Robertson average just five more goals and seven more assists per 82 games than Ehlers. That has also been accomplished by Robertson getting top-line usage and Ehlers getting second- or third-line usage in Winnipeg.

A lot of this will come down to Ehlers getting more (better) usage in Carolina. He won't supplant Seth Jarvis as the team's top winger, but Jarvis may be moved to the middle anyway as the team continues its multi-year search for a third centre to go with Sebastian Aho and Jordan Staal. Regardless, just being used as one of the team's top-3 wingers would give Ehlers at least an additional 30 seconds per game of even-strength ice time (I have him projected as one of their top-3 wingers). Add that to a regular top PP role on a heavily-used top unit like he was in Winnipeg, and he's in line for about 16:30 per game in ice time, which would be a four-year high. Just that small jump in ice time is enough to push Ehlers to nearly a point-per-game status, which is in Robertson's range.

The saving grace for Robertson is that with a new coach in town, maybe he gets more ice time himself. He has had two straight years of declining TOI and fell under 18 minutes a game in 2024-25 for the first time since his rookie season. If he gets bumped back up to where he was a couple of years ago, then he likely has the better season.

With all that said, Robertson is being drafted as a second- or third-round pick while Ehlers is going between rounds 6-8 depending on the site. Even if Robertson ends up with a few more goals and assists, it isn't enough to justify the gap between the two. If drafters are worried about Ehlers' track record of staying healthy, that is understandable, but this seems like a clear opportunity to save a lot of draft capital by taking Ehlers several rounds later.  

Kirill Marchenko (RW, ADP: 74.5) and Bryan Rust (RW, ADP: 108.9)

Here in the battle of the Metro Division we have a young star on a rising team and an underrated producer on an aging team. All told, these two players have very similar outlooks:

Marchenko has an edge in projected assists, shots, and power-play points while Rust has an edge in projected blocks and hits. The goals are near-identical. Overall, these two guys look like the same overall value for the 2025-26 season.

The trepidation around Rust is understandable: he missed 11 games last year and 20 games the year before, he's on the wrong side of 30 years old playing for a team that seems destined for a top-5 draft pick, and they have a new coach in town. There are a lot of variables that can go wrong here, but it's worth keeping in mind his last two seasons have seen him average 36 goals and 38 assists every 82 games, and that's with modest power-play production. If the Pittsburgh power play is as good as it was last year (they were 12^th by goals per minute), then Rust can push 20 PPPs and not only is a threat for a 30-30 season, but even a 35-35 season. No matter what we think of the Penguins, he is still the team's top right winger and skating next to Sidney Crosby both at even strength and on the power play. That matters.

It isn't as if I'm particularly low on Marchenko; most ADPs I've seen have him somewhere between picks 75-100, and my ADP for him (including goalies) is between pick 80-90. So, Marchenko's value seems fine. It is just that Rust is being grossly undervalued as most ADPs have him between picks 100-150 and my ADP for him is literally two picks behind Marchenko. This is a good spot to bolster a fantasy roster elsewhere in rounds 7-8 by foregoing Marchenko and taking Rust a few rounds later.

Jordan Kyrou (RW, ADP: 79.8) and Jonathan Marchessault (RW, ADP: 146.8)

Kyrou has been one of the most consistent producers in recent seasons, posting at least 30 goals, 30 assists, 230 shots, 15 power-play points, and 30 blocks in each of the last three years. Marchessault is coming off his worst season in four years, but despite all that, these two have relatively similar outlooks for 2024-25:

As expected, Kyrou has the edge in goals and assists but Marchessault has the edge everywhere else. Put it all together, and they are projected for very similar overall value. The difference is Marchessault is going roughly six rounds later than Kyrou is. That is a massive, massive gap in value.

To be clear: I am a huge Kyrou fan and have been on his hype train for years. The problem is as consistent as he's been, he's never elevated his production to the next level. Additionally, now that Jimmy Snuggerud is on the roster, there is a full complement of top-6 wingers for Kyrou to contend with alongside Pavel Buchnevich and Dylan Holloway. Considering his general lack of blocks and hits, Kyrou's fantasy value is dependent on production, and he has players vying for the same ice time he is.

Marchessault is coming off a down year and is 35 years old. It is reasonable to be hesitant to say he'll have similar fantasy value to Kyrou, but it's worth keeping in mind that just about everything possible went wrong for Nashville's offence last year and Marchessault still had more assists, power-play points, and hits than Kyrou did. He also posted a five-year low shooting percentage. Maybe Marchessault is reaching the end of his truly productive seasons, but maybe he's not, and between Kyrou in the 7^th round and Marchessault in the 13^th round, it seems like an easy choice.  

Carter Verhaeghe (LW, ADP: 85.7) and Cutter Gauthier (LW, ADP 148.7)

This one is fascinating to me because we have one player who has averaged 33 goals and 35 assists every 82 games over the last three seasons while skating for the two-time defending Stanley Cup champions, and the other is a second-year winger on a team that has missed the playoffs for seven straight seasons. Despite all that, their projections really aren't that far apart:

Yes, Verhaeghe has a small edge everywhere except blocks, but they're all small edges. It isn't as if this is a guy who is going to pop a 61-assist season to really separate himself from other wingers in his range. And it is worth mentioning that Gauthier had nearly as many combined hits and blocks in 2024-25 (119) as Verhaeghe (123) despite playing 3:43 less per game. If Gauthier gets just to the 16-minute mark, he likely blows Verhaeghe's peripherals out of the water.

Over the last two seasons, Florida has overhauled the way it plays at 5-on-5, per the tracking from AllThreeZones. They have gone from a team that balances its offensive attack to one that rarely plays off the rush, leaning heavily on forechecking and cycle work. Given the team's success, it's hard to argue with the approach, but from 2021-2023 they were the top scoring team in the league at 5-on-5 by a wide margin (over 6% higher than the next-closest team). Over the last two seasons, they are 22^nd by goal scoring at 5-on-5. Again, it has helped them win Stanley Cups, but we care about offence, and I don't think it's a coincidence Verhaeghe's rate of 5-on-5 points per 60 minutes declined by 25% in that 2023-2025 span compared to 2021-2023.

This isn't a case where I believe Gauthier will be better in 2025-26 than Verhaeghe. This is a case where the projections are close enough to justify not drafting Verhaeghe and waiting several rounds for Gauthier. And there is a chance Gauthier will just straight-up be better, anyway.