Hey all, it’s Alex here covering for Cliffy. Training camps officially opened yesterday, and there was a fair bit of injury news coming out. The best spot to find that all in one place? The FrozenTools player newsfeed. The biggest news items were injuries to Mats Zuccarello and Mackenzie Blackwood which will keep them out of the early weeks of the season, and Anze Kopitar announcing that this season would be his last. Minor injuries to Jack Eichel and David Pastrnak for example could linger into the season, but these aren't ones that are affecting their draft stocks yet.

There are also plenty of line combos to overreact to, like Matias Maccelli getting the first look with Auston Matthews, Elmer Soderblom being slotted beside Dylan Larkin and Lucas Raymond, and David Tomasek skating alongside Connor McDavid. At this point though, I hope you don't put too much draft capital into these, and instead that you still have a week or two for things to settle before you do get to your drafts. Speaking of…

To pick up from the Wednesday Ramblings, we're covering the top-100 players by ADP with some quick notes on them for the upcoming season. We’re starting at 52 this week after we covered the top 51 players by ADP on Wednesday. You can find that article linked here.

52 – Adam Fox (D): One of the most under-appreciated players in fantasy hockey over the last few years has to be Adam Fox. He slipped under a 70-point pace last year for the first time since his rookie season, and odds are he'll be back over the mark again this year as the Rangers regroup. Offensively he's a steal at this point relative to the other blueliners available.

53 – Mackenzie Weegar (D): Weegar is also worth looking at in this range, but his value is from his all-around production as opposed to pure offence. The issue with Weegar is that Zayne Parekh looms as a threat on the power play, so I'm not sure I would jump on him quite yet.

54 – Darcy Kuemper (G): After putting together a Vezina caliber season for is first year in LA, Kuemper is going to have to follow it up as a 35-year-old who is now playing behind new acquisitions Cody Ceci and Brian Dumoulin. He's not going to be repeating last years numbers, so be careful how high you reach on him. 

55 – Dustin Wolf (G): I touched on Wolf last week after he signed his new deal, and I expect him to come out of the gate with some fantastic numbers. The issue will be keeping it up all season, but that's something that can be sorted out in January.

56 – Cole Caufield (LW): Caufield finally hit the 70-point mark last season, despite a drop in his shot rate. He had a lot more success being more selective with his shooting, but fantasy owners are hoping that number ticks back up. It's a bit of a risk, but the upside for 40 goals and nearly 300 shots is there.

57 – Roman Josi (D): As my favourite player this pains me to say, but I can't take Josi this early. He might hit 65 points again, or he might only play five games. I did pay a couple of futures for him in my dynasty league this offseason, but there is a ton of risk here, and too much for at least a top-75 selection.

58 – Moritz Seider (D): Seider on the other hand is the definition of a safe pick, having averaged between 40-50 points in all four of his seasons, while adding a ton of Hits and Blocks to go along with some reasonable shot rates. He added 24 PPPs last season too, and if he can put everything together then he's easily a top-50 fantasy player.

59 – Brandon Hagel (LW): Hagel has seen a massive ascension in Tampa Bay, and scored 79 even strength points last season. The underlying numbers do indicate a bit of a regression is coming, which makes this slotting for him much too high, despite last season's success.

60 – Adin Hill (G): In Hill's first season as a number-one goalie, it was actually his Q1 that was the weakest (for most goalies they get tired and tail off at the end of the year). If you're looking for a goalie in this range then he's one of the safest bets left.

61 – Mark Scheifele (C): Scheifele has been extremely consistent, hovering around or just above the point-per-game mark in all but one season in the last decade. That's a safe pick here that will help stabilize a draft. Losing Ehlers could knock his production down a bit, but Cole Perfetti should be able to reasonably fill that void.

62 – Jake Sanderson (D): If Sanderson hit more then he would be in consideration as a top-five defenceman off the board, but as it is his 60 points plus solid peripherals in everything but hits (which are easy to find elsewhere) makes for an awesome value pick at this point that I'll definitely be looking at as well.

63 – Wyatt Johnston (C/RW): Johnston's step forward last year was powered by a fantastic Q3, but outside of that he wasn't even playing at a 60-point pace. Be careful of your expectations of him this year, because that supernova level of performance may be only a small part of the whole season.

64 – Dougie Hamilton (D): Hamilton's performance is really going to hinge on his power play usage, and this high of a draft pick should be reserved for only players on the top power play unit. I'm not jumping on Dougie in the first 100 picks, because the top unit might be Luke Hughes' to lose this year.

65 – Shea Theodore (D): Speaking of top-unit defensemen, Theodore ticks a lot of boxes for what you want out of your top fantasy defenseman, except his hit totals are horrendous. If you can get by without the hits, or your league doesn't track them, then punting defense until this point, and loading up with Theodore and a few others from here on could serve you well.

66 – Filip Gustavsson (G): We're halfway through the second (or third?) tier of goalies, and we finally hit the last goalie from my top tier of five or so, which would be Gustavsson, who can provide excellent win totals and solid ratios, and his biggest competition this year is a rookie who has never topped 50 games in a pro season, and had an awful year last year.

67 – Elias Pettersson (C/LW): One of the last players available with 100-point potential. If you're someone that has belief that you can make up later in the draft for taking some swings early, then this is a risk you have to take here.

68 – Jakob Chychrun (D): Chychrun say top power play minutes for stretches last year, and took advantage, but with John Carlson still around it's not a given for any length of time. His underlying numbers also hint at some regression, so there's plenty of reasons to wait on taking him until a few dozen more names are off the board.

69 – Seth Jarvis (C/LW/RW): If Seth Jarvis can put up a 75-point pace with over 200 shots and 92 hits despite playing with an injured shoulder, then what can he do if he's fully healthy this year? At this nice stage in the draft it's worth having him on your team to find out.

70 – Sebastian Aho (C): For the first time in a while Aho isn't the top Carolina player in mock drafts. He has the highest pure scoring upside, but Jarvis' upside is very similar, and Jarvis also has wing eligibility. A couple years ago Aho was a reasonable pick in the 40s, and he hasn't changed much. He's a bargain now because he's just not a sexy name.

71 – Thomas Harley (D): Another D-man where there's risk about his power play opportunities, but if they are there then you're getting a steal. There's lots of similar options in the next 40-50 picks, so I would rather wait at this stage.

72 – Alex DeBrincat (LW/RW): DeBrincat was one goal away from his second 40-goal campaign, and seems to have settled in well with the Wings. He's a consistent scored, adds three shots per game, plus he has room to grow with ice time and underlying luck metrics. The cherry on top would be if he could get back to being a 100-hit player like he was in Chicago and Ottawa. Not a lot of risk here, and some solid upside which is a great recipe for value at this stage.

73 – John Tavares (C): A career-high shooting percentage and some unsustainable luck metrics in a contract year held off what likely would have been another year of decline last season. I'm steering clear of Tavares for at least another 50 picks here.

74 – Anthony Stolarz (G): It's been a decade since Stolarz has played 40 games in a professional season, and he has had a variety of injuries in the past. I would rather wait a while and get similar stats from Woll than spending more draft capital on Stolarz this early. The upside with the ratio stats is high, but those can be so variable that without the volume on top this pick is just too risky.

Tied at 75 – Logan Thompson (G): In a completely different situation, Thompson is likely to see his win rate fall, but with more games played the win totals should still be high. The peripherals look repeatable, even if the Capitals do tumble down the standings a little. A much better and safe goalie bet at this stage.

Tied at 75 – Drake Batherson (RW): Batherson has a very similar profile to DeBrincat, except the shot/goal volume is a little lower and the assists are higher, while Batherson has also kept the hit rate up from his early years. If you miss on one you can be content taking the other a few picks later, and filling a similar spot in your lineup.

77 – Jacob Markstrom (G): Markstrom saw his save percentage drop to .900 last season, and is going to be turning 36 before the Olympic break. However, I'm optimistic about his numbers this year, as he has the familiarity in the Devils system now, and goalies often fare better in their second year after making a team switch. For a goalie who may get 50-60 stars and 30-35 wins, this seems like a discount on the draft board.

78 – Mikhail Sergachev (D): One of the players I am likely targeting the most in this range is Sergachev, and I know both Cliffy and I have mentioned him a few times in recent Ramblings as to what makes him a good bet this year. We'll see if that has driven up his price too much though come draft day.

79 – Noah Dobson (D): With the shift to Montreal likely bringing just PP2 duties, and at best a similar set of minutes, there's little upside for Dobson to be blowing last season's production out of the water except for in the plus-minus column, and that's what he would need to do in order to validate a pick at this point. I'm going to let the Habs fans draft him here.

80 – Miro Heiskanen (D): Similar to Harley, but 10 picks later, I'm not convinced we get a top-100 ranked fantasy season out of Heiskanen this year, and the peripherals aren't high to keep his floor up propped up enough.

81 – Valeri Nichushkin (RW): One risk of Gabriel Landeskog's return is that there is a possibility that Nichushkin loses some time with the top power play unit. That on top of a propensity to miss games makes him a very risky play. He is a scorer and a volume shooter when he is on the ice though, so the risk/reward is there, but there's also a similar floor/ceiling in many players in this range, and plenty of them are much younger.

82 – Matvei Michkov (RW): Case in point, Michkov's ceiling is higher than Nichushkin's but his floor for this season would be lower as a result of A) playing for the Flyers, and B) the possibility of a step back in his sophomore campaign. His average possession numbers despite sheltered usage do hint there could be some growing pains, so I'll let someone else take this swing in one-year leagues.

83 – Dylan Larkin (C): Passing on those last two forwards is much more palatable with some of the upcoming safer performers still available, with Larkin as a case-in-point. Three straight years of almost exactly an 80-point pace, and 3.0 shots per game. He saw a small dip from that last year, but he's not yet 30 and should see that 80-point pace return this year.

84 – Jordan Kyrou (RW): If the dependability of Larkin doesn't interest you, then maybe a 27-year-old winger who finished last season on a 90-point and 250-shot pace in Q4? That's the upside you're getting in Kyrou, whose 70-point floor has been established over the last four seasons.

85 – Brandon Montour (D): After a second year pacing for 40 points, alongside a decline in his hit rate and a big drop in his plus-minus rating, Montour doesn't look like he has the upside in Seattle to be a top-100 pick. That being said, he was going about this range last year, and slipped past pick 110 in one of my leagues last year, and I held him all season as a solid pick at that point. Don't discount him completely, but just be careful on the range.

86 – Nico Hischier (C): Hischier was a point-per-game player except for Q2 last season, and showed some very similar numbers to Dylan Larkin over the last few years. Larkin shoots a bit more, but both of these two players are consistent with the upside for over a point per game. Feel free to pass on one at pick 80 and try to grab the other a round later.

87 – Linus Ullmark (G): Another goalie who hasn't played 50 professional games in a season in nearly a decade. In Ullmark's case it's almost solely because when he gets a higher workload, he gets injured. When he plays, he's a very reliable fantasy goalie. I have no problem taking him and his 45 games around this range, because if he does happen to stay healthy for 55+ games then he's a top-50 fantasy asset.

88 – Matthew Knies (LW): Knies is set to hit his breakout threshold halfway through this current campaign, which would mean about 20% on top of his recent 60-point pace, which would put him at about 75 points (or at least that's what he might pace for in the second half). However, Knies was playing at over a 65-point pace after Q1 last year and could see even more opportunities with Mitch Marner gone. A 40+ point performance in the second half shouldn't be out of the question. Maybe not someone I want to draft here, but certainty someone I would target in a mid-season trade when I'm selling high on someone else.

89 – Timo Meier (LW/RW): His point pace has declined in each of the previous three seasons, and we need to stop expecting him to regain the form that saw him as a top-20 fantasy player. That being said, with the peripherals he brings, this is a reasonable range to grab him, as many of the players in the next 20-30 picks don't have nearly the track record that Meier does for scoring or peripherals.

90 – Lucas Raymond (RW): Raymond already has four full seasons, and the theory is that he's going to be taking another step forward from his 80-point season last year. He's going to need some very good puck luck to beat that though, without much room to move his underlying numbers, and no superstar player to drive the numbers up. It's a decent range for him here, but don't reach too far for him.

91 – John Carlson (D): The soon-to-be 36-year-old has paced for just over 50 points in each of the previous two seasons, and while his underlying numbers don't look too worrisome, Jakob Chychrun is a threat to his power play usage, which was down almost a minute per game in Q4 last season. The upside is limited now, though the limited number of 50-point defensemen left makes a selection here almost defensible.

92 – Nikolaj Ehlers (LW): Even if Ehlers doesn't add any ice time in Carolina, he has shown he can put up a 75-point season playing 15 minutes per game. We'll do some very complicated math here, but if he lines up with Aho full time, and sees the same 20 minutes per game that Aho does, that would extrapolate to projecting him at 100 points. Not too many players left with such an easy path to triple digits.

93 – Travis Konecny (RW): For the last eight seasons, Konecny has had an IPP above the 70% mark that is usually the sign of a good player who can carry a scoring line. In fact, his IPP has been above 80 in two of the last three years. That's better than Sidney Crosby, Nathan MacKinnon, or Nikita Kcuherov, and in line with McDavid level numbers. If only Konecny had some offensive support around him, he would be a real 90-point threat. For now, we'll have to treat him as an 80-point player.

94 – Dylan Holloway (LW): After a huge breakout last year, Holloway is primed to pass his breakout threshold midway through the year. He was nearly a point-per-game player from Q2 and onwards, and brings a ton of peripherals too. Sounds familiar? Yes, it does sound exactly like you can get Matty Knies value at least a round later here if you're not a Leafs fan.

95 – Seth Jones (D): Jones was actually more productive in Chicago last season as opposed to Florida, and was only scoring at a 30-point level in the playoffs. If you're drafting him here then you're hoping for some chemistry to help with the production this year, and that he can hold the top power play job over the incumbent Aaron Ekblad.

96 – Andrei Svechnikov (LW): Svechnikov is finally coming at a draft discount relative to the last few years where he was going too early to be worth it. That's because last season he only scored 48 points. If he can jump back to around the 70-point mark, then that along with his fantastic peripherals make him worthy of drafting here, but there are also plenty of breakout threats like Knies, Holloway, and others outside the top-100 who can be just as productive and won't be picked earlier on name value alone.

97 – Juraj Slafkovsky (LW): Slaf is another one of those young guys looking to take another step forward, and while he's right at the 200-game mark, his ascension as a bigger player might be a bit slower. His production, shot rate, and ice time were all trending upward as the season wore on, so everything is pointing in the right direction for him.

98 – Zach Hyman (LW): Cliffy had a good update on Hyman a week or so ago in his Ramblings, and that alone would be reason not to take him in the top-100, maybe even the top-150 depending on how shallow the league is. The sub-50-point pace from last season doesn't help the outlook either.

99 – Jordan Binnington (G): At this stage, there are a lot of starters on bubble or non-playoff teams that can provide middling ratios and decent volume, and there's still going to be some around like Joey Daccord, John Gibson, and others at least 50 picks after you can get Binnington. Don't get sucked into reaching for the earlier names in a similar goaltending tier.

100 – Kirill Marchenko (RW): Marchenko had some huge volume in the first half of the season on a line with Sean Monahan and Dmitri Voronkov, though it tailed off a little in the second half due to injuries. There were points in the year where he was ranked in the top-10 by fantasy value for Yahoo standard league categories, so we know where his upside is when things are clicking. If the floor is the 60-point pace we saw in the second half, then he's certainly worth a look at this stage. With the top guys in Columbus healthy to start the year, this would be an excellent bet to make.

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After this point in the draft, grab the last few power play defencemen with peripherals, fill out your net-minders with a few volume goalies, and swing for scoring upside in your forwards. I won a league last year on the back of my 12^th through 15^th round picks being Lucas Raymond, Nik Ehlers, Martin Necas, and Neal Pionk. Don't lose your league in the first 100 picks, and then you can win it with the upside picks in the second half. Good luck!

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See you next Wednesday, and if you have any fantasy hockey questions or comments you can find me on BlueSky @alexdmaclean.