Capped: Impact of the Kyle Connor and Lane Hutson Extensions

Andrew Santillo

2025-10-23

Welcome back, everyone to the world's first and foremost leader in all things NHL salary cap. To all my millions of readers in North America and beyond, I want to start this week off by revisiting the Kirill Kaprizov extension that I did a deep dive on last week.

In my salary cap league right before posting, Kaprizov was dealt in a deal that saw a return of two prospects and a first-round pick. Now, I'm positive most of you out there are probably not interested in this because there's nothing more boring than hearing about someone else's league, but it does paint a perfect picture of what a spike in salary can do for a roster. Kaprizov wasn't dealt out of want, but more so need with the changing headwinds of rising salaries, with Kaprizov being the greatest. Within two seasons, I wouldn't be surprised if the salary cap sat around the $113M mark and I promise you're going to see spikes in salaries that are going to force fantasy players to make harsh cuts to their rosters with few outs. Again, this calls back to last week's Capped, but I felt that it was still relevant enough to share with all of you as how the rising tide of NHL salaries is going to lift all players.

Kyle Connor signs an eight-year, $96.00M ($12M AAV) deal with the Jets

How do we always settle on eight-year deals? I ask because I truly don't know how this became the number for the NHL and MLB. Anyway, Kyle Connor has signed an extension to stay in Winnipeg and the first comments I saw were along those lines. "Yes! Someone wants to stay in Winnipeg!", "After years of players avoiding Winnipeg, here's a player who wants to stay!" …if I may push back here slightly. Mark Scheifele signed an extension to stay, as did Josh Morrissey, and Connor Hellebuyck. Even my guy Neal Pionk is in year one of six on a contract and decided to stay in Manitoba. I just think that the narrative is overblown on certain NHL cities being deemed less desirable than others, with all outside factors being added into the equation. By all accounts here in the States, Raleigh-Durham is one of the best areas to live in the country, and Mikko Rantanen wanted to leave in two weeks' time.

As far as the Connor contract extension terms, this is fine deal for both the player and the organization, with this deal looking extremely similar next to William Nylander's contract in Toronto. Both extensions had an eight-year term, both valuing an AAV or around $12M, and when each expire the player will be at their age 36/37 season. I like this deal a lot for Winnipeg that somehow people seem to forget won a Presidents' Trophy just six months ago. This might be an organization this season that we have the full picture defined on their roster, but they do have flexibility to make a move at the deadline if their intent is to do so. They have around $2.5M in available cap space to spend and do control their own first round pick this season along with not retaining any salaries right now on their books.

For fantasy, Kyle Connor is one player that I have always wanted to roster in my main league yet have never been able to. This past draft night he was right there in my queue…and then gone two picks before I could select him. I picked 11 out of 12, thought he could come back to me and poof, gone. Not only are the 41 goals last season something that he can duplicate this season, but the bulk of LW's in fantasy this season (and last) is less deep than others, making Connor a priority draft pick. It's still a tad early to predict the range of points at which he'll end this season, but I wouldn't be surprised if his points on the power play go rise amongst the ranks as we move forward into the next couple months of the NHL season.

Lane Hutson signs an eight-year, $70.80M ($8.5M AAV) deal with the Canadiens

I love everything about this signing. First off, well done both sides for getting this deal done early in the season and not let this linger on as a distraction as we move forward. Second, the term and AAV are perfect. I did have thoughts that this deal could see close to a $10M AAV but settling at that $8.5M AAV mark for a 21-year-old player is excellent for the Canadiens.

What I think is best here isn't just the Hutson extension in a vacuum, but what the Habs have done as a whole to construct their core. Nick Suzuki is 26 signed until 2030, Cole Caufield is 24 signed until 2031, Juraj Slafkovsky is 21 signed until 2033, Noah Dobson is 25 signed until 2033, and Kaiden Guhle is 23 signed until 2031. Not only are these contracts and their terms very well put together for this organization's cap ceiling, but they have very good flexibility to work within the salary cap without running into many constraints. When Ivan Demidov comes up for an extension, I don't see a roadmap to where this would be difficult to keep him in-house, and even if Zachary Bolduc continues to support this club offensively, then he and the Habs should be able to come to a number and term that's suitable for both sides.

By now, you guys know my feelings on the salary cap as to how clubs get in trouble and it's mainly trying to be too creative and/or having "bad" money allocated to the blueline. In the case of Montreal, the salary I would likely want off my books will be removed at season's end, and I couldn't even be nit-picky on their blue line. What I will say though is early I used the term "core" and I don't so much love using that term as it applies to a team keeping an assembled group of players together. I can almost say for certain that this Montreal organization is ready for sustained success but leaving the door open for an outlier season to where it might be suitable to move pieces around the chessboard so-to-speak. For this season alone, there are moves that could be made to improve this roster just by the sheer number of available NHL ready wings that this club has in Montreal and with their non-roster forwards. Sure, some of them need to finish out their NCAA season, or are abroad, but there's a chance this club sells off pieces at the deadline to incorporate that talent into the lineup.

For Hutson in fantasy, for me I stayed away but that's only because I drafted Slafkovsky and didn't want to double-up on players from the same club. I haven't been able to catch much Montreal this season but try to on most nights, but something I notice with Hutson at least last season is these little head fakes and slight crosses he does while he has the puck moving forward to throw off defenders. Seldom did I ever see him create space by doing this as that may have worked at lower levels, but in the NHL that just doesn't open space on the ice, particularly on the power play. Still, this is a very talented young defensemen that is in a very good spot going forward with the Canadiens.

*Salary Cap data from PuckPedia.com

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