Last week we used league scoring data to focus on some players who were performing well in the early going to see if there were any hot streaks worth jumping on. Today we are flipping the script and looking at cold players to see if anything has changed about their situation that causes worry, or if we expect them to just snap back to their usual production.

As far as process goes, we are flagging a number of big-name cold players from the Frozen Tools home page. That page is organized by team, and the bottom of each team section displays hot and cold players. We will be grabbing some player names there and then using their Player Profile pages to take a look at production, time on ice, deployment, and underlying metrics. All data will be up to date as of October 23rd, prior to the Thursday night games.

To start, let’s visit Florida and Sam Reinhart. Reinhart has four points in nine games, or a 36-point pace. That is a far cry from his 84-point average over the last four seasons for the Panthers. Obviously, there is a big wild card in the missing Aleksander Barkov, Reinhart's most common line mate in 24-25. Judging by the numbers, some things look consistent. Reinhart is getting over 21 minutes of overall ice time and almost 70% of the team's power play, both in the range of the last couple of years in Florida. His shot rates have dipped down to 2.3 per game which is about a half-shot lower than the last few seasons. Every other metric is very low as well – his personal and team five on five shooting percentages, his IPP etc. He has only been on the ice for two goals at five on five, when his expected numbers indicate there should have been more than six. On a per 60 basis his expected numbers are actually very consistent to past years as well. In a usual situation I would say everything should rebound, as a lot of this variation looks like bad luck. If it did he would be up around his usual point per game pace. Unfortunately, there is the cloud of a missing Barkov hanging over the situation. It is not clear if we should expect a full rebound of all those underlying numbers if Barkov is not in the picture. Ultimately Reinhart will not continue to be this bad. He won't have a 36-point pace over the course for the season. It is a fair question though as to what the ceiling is now. I might be a little more comfortable assuming a 75ish point Reinhart for the moment, but all of that is subject to change again when Matthew Tkachuk returns and the lineups shift again.

Sticking in the southeast, Andrei Svechnikov has zero points through seven games. Svechnikov has not gone seven games without a point at any time in the last three seasons. Yes, by default that means his shooting percentage is low, as are some of his other metrics, but best-case those rebounding maybe gives him three points through six games. A best-case 40-point pace is not exactly what drafters were hoping for when drafting a guy who eclipsed the 70-point pace mark in four of the last six seasons. The problem is, well, everything. Svechnikov has been losing time on ice each game, suiting up on October 20th on the fourth line, and the second power play and was still on the second power play as of October 22nd in practice. If stays in the bottom six and on the second power play then a 40-point Svechnikov is definitely in the cards, and might even be a best-case scenario.

Mikhail Sergachev still makes the list even after a three-point night on October 21^st and two more on October 23rd. He had been pointless in six games, so that night makes it five points in eight games. All indications here are positive though. Sergachev has been nearly 25 minutes a night, over 60% of the power play, has a three-year high shot rate, and is getting a little bit unlucky in the underlying metrics. All things considered, Utah has an exciting and improving core that Sergachev is a part of. He is being given every opportunity to succeed, and things are likely to keep improving.  

Steven Stamkos's 21-point pace (two points in his first eight games) is certainly a far cry from his heyday, but unfortunately not completely out of character with his time in Nashville. Big picture, he is getting similar deployment to 24-25 17:25 of average ice time and about 70% of the team's power-play time. His shot rate has been about as consistent thus far as well, about two per game. He is shooting at about half his recent career rate and at five on five the team is not scoring well with him on the ice. If we assume that those things regress back to his recent averages, the best case for Stamkos might be a 55-point pace. He seems to be far less central to the power-play's success than when in Tampa, getting a point on 15-20% fewer of the power-play points scored. In 24-25 that led to about 15 fewer points overall. If his time on ice and shot rates hadn't also declined, we might be still hoping for a 70-point Stamkos (his 85-point pace seasons in Tampa, minus the power-play production), but right now getting up to the 52-point pace of 24-25 would be a rebound. That does seem possible, but a rebound all the way up to 70 feels like a stretch.

Patrik Laine maybe isn't quite the name he used to be. After several injury plagued, disappointing seasons he wasn't commanding a ton of capital on draft day, but one point in five games isn't likely what people expected. Even in 2024-25, which was not his best season, he still managed a 52-point pace. Unfortunately, Laine's early season story is much the same as Svechnikov's. He has been playing less than 13 minutes a night and while he started off the season in the top six with Ivan Demidov, he was quickly shuffled down the lineup playing on the fourth line and on the second power-play before getting injured. He has only been averaging just over one shot per game. Like with Svechnikov it is technically true that some of the underlying numbers are low, indicating some potential bad luck, but with this kind of deployment and production he would be hard pressed to reach a half point per game. Nineteen of Laine's 33 points in 24-25 game from the power play. Even if he is just off that top power play his production likely tanks to 35-40 points as his even strength production has just not been good enough – even when he has been higher up the lineup. If he stays on the fourth line though, the floor could be even lower.

That is all for this week.

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