Geek of The Week: Anomaly Evaluation
Chad Simpson
2025-10-26
Hello everyone and welcome to the latest edition of Geek of the Week.
I thought it would be fun this week to look at some of the anomalies of the season so far. From the breakout performances to the head scratching ones, anomalies are some of the most important data points to sift through for fantasy. If you can properly determine sustainability of certain anomalies, you can stay way ahead of your competitors week in and week out.
Nick Schmaltz, RW, UTA – 9 GP, 7 G,8 A, 34 SOG, 2 Hit, 7 Blk
There likely isn't a bigger anomaly currently in the NHL than a player who is a consistent 20-goal scorer being on pace for 63 goals after goals in each of his last six games. Yet, here we are with Nick Schmaltz and the surging Mammoths.
Despite the freakish stats, I think Schmaltz may end up being the most sustainable anomaly we discuss today. The Mammoth youth movement is starting to explode, and that is boosting Schmaltz with talent he rarely has had around him during his four-year run of 20 goal seasons. I think he is undoubtedly headed for a career year and the question becomes 70 or 80 points.
Cutter Gauthier, LW, ANA – 8 GP, 5 G, 2 A, 38 SOG, 10 HIT, 3 BLK
A 21-year-old is second in the league in shots on goal behind just Nathan MacKinnon. Let that sink in a bit and then we will dig in further. Coming off a 40-point rookie season, Gauthier is on pace to double his goal total from last season and triple his shots on goal. While these numbers fit the criteria of anomalies this early in the season, they aren't very surprising considering the talent level we are talking about.
As part of one of the most exciting lines in hockey alongside Leo Carlsson the duo is bringing joy and hope back to a Ducks fan base that has struggled since the mid-2010s to find a reason to be happy as they look to end the third-longest current playoff drought in the NHL.
Quinn Hughes, D, VAN – 9 GP, 1 G, 6 A, 18 SOG, 1 HIT, 6 BLK
On pace for career high ice time but career low totals in every statistical category? Yeah, I think that is a pretty notable anomaly. Since Hughes is coming off a 76-point season, fantasy owners are already worrying about hitting 40 points.
The big issue for Hughes isn't even his own play, but rather the team around him. I'm not sure if the Canucks can fix their issues this season or if they have to pull the plug on a roster that is hoping a trade for Lukas Reichel fixes things. If they do pull the plug, I would suspect us to be eyeing the New Jersey Devils to see if they make a move sooner than expected for the final piece of the Hughes trifecta. If they don't, I think fantasy owners are in for a rough season of just being stuck with the production they get.
Alex Lyon, G, BUF – 7 GP, 3 W, 18 GA, 214 SV, 1 SO, 2.61 GAA .922 SV%
Raise your hand if you had Lyon or any Buffalo player being one of if not the best fantasy producers at their position. Okay you over there with your hand up: STOP LYING. In all seriousness, Lyon has had some underlying metrics in past years that showed he was capable of a great run, but it wasn't supposed to happen here.
Lyon has benefitted immensely from the late start to the season for Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen due to injury. A big part of why the Sabres are .500 currently after winning three of his last four outings, Lyon has been a breath of fresh air in a season where established goalies have struggled early (looking at you Andrei and Ilya). The problem is there is just too many mouths to feed in net for Lyon to be any more than a great plug and play option when he is in net.
With UPL back plus Colten Ellis in the fold and potential appearances by Devon Levi later in the season, it is really hard to put an estimate on just how many games Lyon will play. This honestly feels a lot like the Cam Talbot resurgence, where he played his way into extensive opportunity ahead of ironically enough Lyon among others. I just don't know if UPL is someone the Sabres will be willing to push aside just because Lyon is playing well like the Wings did with Lyon, Petr Mrazek, etc.
That's it for this week's Geek of the Week. See you all next time and make sure to check out more great content from the other writers here at Dobber.