Welcome back to another edition of the Roos Lets Loose monthly mailbag, where I answer your fantasy hockey questions by giving advice that should be useful to all poolies even if they don't own the specific players being discussed. As a reminder, if you want your fantasy hockey question(s) answered in the next mailbag, check out the end of the column, where I explain the ways to get it/them to me as well as the details you should provide when sending. The earlier you send a question the more likely it is to be included in the mailbag, and the deeper dive I can provide with my reply.

I know you're eager to get to the questions. But before I do, I want to cover a couple of things.

First and foremost, today marks 20 years since Dobber registered the dobberhockey.com domain name, essentially birthing the site. Although I was not there from the start, I found his Guide soon after he launched and thought it was far and away the best resource for winning at fantasy hockey. I joined the Forums in 2009 ("rizzeedizzee") and visited them, and the site, daily. From there, I became a writer in 2012, and a Guide contributor the following year.

Being a writer here has been one of the longest constants in my life, a privilege and joy from day one and still to this day………over two million words (!) later. So congrats Dobber on this milestone, and for dobberhockey.com remaining the unquestioned best fantasy hockey site. Here's to 20 more years!

Second, in all honesty none of these are actual questions I received from readers of the column, which is not surprising since things have yet to settle into place for 2025-26, nor is any anyone really able to afford to wait the time it takes to get a mailbag answer. What you see below are questions I felt would be worth answering. At the end of the column, it explains how you can send actual questions to me, and I hope to start receiving them again soon.

Question #1

Nine teams (Rangers, Ducks, Flyers, Stars, Bruins, Blackhawks, Kraken, Penguins, Canucks) entered 2025-26 with new coaches. Even though there has only been a small sample size, which changes look like they'll have the most positive fantasy impact on their players, and which ones the least?

Ducks forwards are getting more ice time, overall and on the PP. For 2024-25, one took the ice for even 55% of the team's PP minutes, whereas now four are out there for around two-thirds of their PP time. And instead of one averaging 17:34+ per game like last season, four are eclipsing that mark thus far.

In Dallas it's been an even more pronounced change, as last season only one forward was on the ice for 60% of the team man advantage minutes, and just one averaged over 18:00 per game overall. But now four forwards all are on the ice for 64% or more on the PP, with two above 75%, and three forwards are averaging above 20:00 per game overall, with another above 19:00.

With the Rangers, they already leaned on their top PP unit quite a bit, but now they do even more so, as four players are seeing 75% of its man advantage minutes. Interestingly though, their overall TOIs have not similarly risen, and in fact they are going with more of a three line approach.

But those hoping for Philly's top forwards to get better deployment have been disappointed, at least so far, as just three are averaging 18:00 per game. And Rick Tocchet is opting for two true PP units, with no forward seeing even 58% of the team's PP time.

In Boston it's still the David Pastrnak show; but whereas the TOIs for the other top forwards have not risen much, they are going with a true first unit PP, with all four on the ice for about two-thirds of its PP minutes. And while there was some debate as to whether Charlie McAvoy would remain the top dog on the PP, thus far he still is, and faring well enough to keep Mason Lohrei at bay.

In the Windy City, most every top forward is taking the ice for about a minute more per game. That may sound great, and it is for Connor Bedard, who's right above the 21:00 mark, and Frank Nazar, who's well above 19:00; but for the rest, other than Teuvo Teravainen they remain – for now – under 18:00 per game. And even Bedard is barely taking the ice for two-thirds of the team's PP minutes.

In Seattle, there have been baby steps of progress. As four forwards – versus none last season – are taking the ice for 60%+ of its PP time. Yet still none are above two-thirds. And still most remain under the 18:00 mark in TOI, although with roughly 30 seconds to a minute more versus last season.

In Steel City, Sidney Crosby's ice times are down, as is his percentage of PP time, yet he's thriving, so perhaps at his age less is more? Meanwhile, Bryan Rust is the leader in TOI for the team overall, but Evgeni Malkin is taking the ice for the highest percentage of PP time, with only Crosby and Rust also above 60%. And if there was any debate as to which d-man is the top PP dog, it's clearly Erik Karlsson, as Kris Letang is mired on the second unit.

Lastly there's the Canucks. Elias Pettersson's TOI is up a full minute versus 2024-25, but his scoring is still lagging. Also, all but one forward on the top PP unit is out there for 75% of the team's PP time, with the fourth still above two-thirds. That is a marked change from last season.

What about at other positions? I mentioned Karlsson and Letang and McAvoy and Lohrei; but in Dallas if there were concerns Miro Heiskanen would cede PP1 to Thomas Harley, that hasn't happened, at least not yet. And in Seattle, the healthy – for now – Vince Dunn has regained a foothold on PP1, much to the chagrin of Brandon Montour owners. In Philly though, no unquestioned PP1 QB has emerged just yet, while to the surprise of likely very few given his massive offseason extension, Jackson LaCombe is manning PP1 for Anaheim. As for Chicago, so far it's been Sam Rinzel, although he's not produced too well, so that could be the team where a chance would occur first.

Question #2

Which of these thus far shaky – at best – goalies has the best chance of turning things around: Dustin Wolf, Filip Gustavsson, Ilya Sorokin, or Sam Montembeault? And who's least likely to right his ship?

For what it's worth, all but Montembeault sit among the top eight in high danger shots faced, with Gus in first. So their teams are not doing them any favors. The issue is will this improve? For Wolf and Sorokin, probably not, whereas for Gus it could, given the seemingly better squad in front of him. Gus and Wolf also sit in the top five in total shots faced, which doesn't do them any favors either. And Gus, despite how poor his stats look, has a barely negative GSAA.

For Montembeault, not only can he fail to blame his poor results on high danger shots, where he's seen among the fewest of any goalie – but he's has the second worst GSAA among any goalie in the NHL. And unlike the other three, he has someone – namely Jakub Dobes – who's outplaying him, making his comparative failures more glaring. And Montembeault also has had the most goal support among the four, although perhaps that has caused him to be complacent, or not to up his effort?

Montembeault and Sorokin also have failed to record a SV% of .900 in over 25% of their games, with Monty at 16.7%. Wolf is not much better at 36.7%, but Gus is at 50%. When Wolf has played on one day rest, his SV% is .907, meaning that if the team had the confidence to turn to a back-up more often, Wolf should do better. On the other hand, Gus has been lousy on one or two days rest, only doing well with three or more, which is not what you want to see in a starter. Sorokin's numbers are interestingly not lousy across the board, as when he has had two days rest he's done okay. But that is likely an early season flukey stat line. Montembeault, not surprisingly, has been terrible across the board.

Of the four, only Gus has an ES SV% of 900, and it's exactly .900. And as far as Really Bad Starts, only Montembeault is above 25%, but he's way above, at 66.7%. Sorokin and Gus have actually only had twos RBS each thus far, although still that puts them at rates of 25% and 20% respectively, with Wolf barely higher at 27.3%.

In short, Montembeault has looked terrible; and unlike Sorokin, who's signed for huge money, or Wolf, who has nobodies for back-ups, he has a viable threat in Jakub Dobes. Gus has Jesper Wallstedt, but he too inked a pretty large deal this offseason; so having him cede the starting role so soon thereafter would be quite awkward, and a situation Minnesota likely will do all it can to avoid. I'd pin my best hopes on Gus, given his numbers and the team in front of him. Wolf likely won't fare worse, but also perhaps not better given his workload and team. Sorokin owners should prepare for more frustration though, as he seemingly is still quite talented, but saddled with an awful team in front of him, although they did rehire his former goalie coach, so perhaps there's hope. So my money is on Gus of the four to most likely turn around his season.

Question #3 (from Abed)

What's the story in Ottawa? How is it that Dylan Cozens and Shane Pinto all have double digit point totals after 13 games? Can this continue for all three?

First off, it's not as surprising when you pause to consider the Sens are the second highest scoring team in the NHL as of now. Will that continue though? Well after 13 games they were shooting 12.6% as a team, so the answer could be yes. They seem to be clicking, and the play of all three of these guys is a big reason.

Pinto is of course the biggest surprise. And that's not just because the other two were former top ten overall picks with prior track records, but also since Pinto is Ottawa's third line center and not on PP1. And closer scrutiny of his stats shows the team is shooting 14.1% at 5×5 when he's on the ice, yet his IPP is 63.2%. That is a good news bad news situation, but more bad than good, since the SH% is certainly going to go down, yet the IPP, based on his prior years, is unlikely to rise. Put those together and it adds up to him seeing his scoring drop, probably to a scoring pace less than 60 and perhaps, when all is said and done, less than even 50.

As for Cozens, it's the PP where he's thriving, with seven of his ten points coming there. He also has three PPGs already, but is shooting nearly 20% overall. His 71.4% IPP overall and a 77.8% IPP on the PP are not stratospherically high, and he has come close to 70% overall IPP on two prior occasions. Yet the team is only shooting 6.5% at 5×5 when he's on the ice at 5×5, meaning that when – and it is when, not if – his PP scoring rate drops, he still should be able to maintain a decent pace. So Cozens, provided he can stay healthy, might end up with 60+ points, with a better chance of 65+ than 55+.

Stutzle has been feast or famine so far this young season, with as many multipoint games as games with zero points. Still, explosive scoring is harder to do, and most definitely is what I'd rather see than someone who scores more often but rarely has multipoint efforts. Stutzle also is shooting more again, and his IPP is starting to restabilize, although it's only 44.4% on the PP, with only one way for it to go and that's up. But his team SH% at 5×5 is also high at 13.0%. But if that falls and his PP IPP rises, it'd likely be a wash. But his OZ% is on pace for a career high, although, at 71.4%, is not insanely high. Looking at all these factors together, it might be that what we've seen so far could be around what we get at the end of the season, namely an 85-90 point pace, which is quite good, but still lower than most expect from Stutzle.

Question #4

What should we make of Seth Jones? Is he just not that great in terms of scoring, or is he being hurt by the absences of Aleksander Barkov and Matthew Tkachuk?

It's amazing to me that Jones is already 31, as it really seems like not as long ago as 2013 that he was drafted fourth overall. But with him now in his 13th season, his best every scoring pace was 60 points and he's only paced for over 50 one other time. Some felt that him being stuck on some terrible Hawks teams was hurting him; however, between the end of last season and 2025-26 thus far, he's played over 30 games with Florida and his scoring pace thus far is under a point per every other game. This despite him noy only running PP1 but only four other d-men in the NHL seeing more average PP time per game than him for this season so far.

He’s certainly not helping himself by his SOG rate being 1.4 per game this season, down nearly 50% from what it was just two seasons ago and it having been 2.3-2.6 for six season in a row beforehand. His TOI is also dropping, down a minute from last season, which was down a minute from the season prior. He is not being helped by his OZ% being under 50% for the first time in his entire career, as well as a 5.4% team SH% while he's on the ice. And although his IPPs are quite decent, that doesn't help pad one's point totals if there isn't scoring happening when one is on the ice. Also, him having a mere two of his six assists being primary is too high even for a d-man.

Looking at his other metrics, Jones' PDO has never been over 1006. And it too has been trending down. It seems more and more like Jones is pretty well able to find ways to factor into offense; yet when he's on the ice, offense is not happening enough as compared to when he's not. And that is worse than the reverse, meaning I'd rather have a player who has low IPPs but a higher PDO and team SH% at 5×5, since in that case there is a better chance of them finding a way to get more involved in the offense because more offense is being created. With Jones though, it's of little help that he has quite decent IPPs if there aren't goals being scored when he's on the ice.

What weighs in Jones' favor, however, is the steep price the Panthers paid to get him, plus the fact they seem entirely opposed to using Gustav Forsling or Aaron Ekblad on PP1. Jeff Perty is still in the picture; however, he's almost 38 and hasn't been given a shot to run PP1 either. So Jones seemingly has no chance of losing his spot even if he continues to produce well below expectations. But as great as that to have essentially true "job security" it also can breed complacency. What I mean by that is some players fare best if they feel they need to shine to keep their spot, while others can perhaps rest on their laurels in knowing they are making a lot of money and don't have to thrive. And I fear Jones falls into the latter category. So I'd say expect no more than 45 points, with a better chance of being closer to 40 than rising to 50.

Question #5

What is happening with Shane Wright? I realize he doesn't turn 22 for a couple of months, but he failed to stick with the team his first two seasons, and now looks on his way toward another mediocre campaign with a scoring rate again in the 40s. Is he not thriving because his ice time is limited, or is his ice time limited because he's not good enough to merit more?

I thought Wright had turned a corner last season when he posted 17 points in 18 Q3 games despite a 14:12 average TOI per game and PP scraps. But he fell to seven Q4 points in 20 games despite a full minute more TOI entirely on the PP. We have to keep in mind although he's been around for a while, Wright is not hitting his 200 game breakout threshold until next season. So it's far too early to label him a failure, although it is a concern to see him still not taking the ice for a mere 15:00 per game.

What's also interesting is when he played last season with better linemates, the team's 5×5 SH% was 11.8%. But his IPPs were 57.9% overall and 59.1% on the PP. Considering any forward should be at 60%, those are subpar. Fast forward to now, and his scoring is the same; but his linemates are far worse but his IPPs are amazing and his 5×5 team SH% is 9.0, which is decent. Again, it is still too early to be conclusive, but seemingly when he plays alongside more talented players, he does not stand in the way of offense being created, but fails to find a way to factor into the scoring. Yet if placed on a line with worse players, less scoring occurs but he factors into that scoring far, far more often. So this situation isn't the same as Jones in that Wright still has time to hit his stride, plus at least has shown he can carry a weak line and does not stand in the way of scoring when surrounded by more talent.

Where there is concern, seemingly, is his SOG rate. Even at just 1.5 per game, that would mark a career high. Yet here too there are reasons for optimism, as he's had five games with zero SOG, he also had one with five and another with six. And in all of last season, his high for SOG per game was four, and that happened only once. And the games where he "exploded" for those high SOG totals happened to be when he logged over 16:00 per game, which strikes me as not a coincidence.

I think 2025-26 will be perhaps another "growing pains" season for Wright, although if the team gives him a fair chance to play even just a couple minutes more per game, things could get better. But if not, then although he might not ultimately deliver on the very lofty expectations that accompanied him when he was drafted, he seems like a very viable 200 game breakout threshold candidate for 2026-27 and I still think he has point per game potential.

Question #6

How do you see things unfolding for Colorado's wingers? Will it be like now, where several do well, or will things be less spread around as the season unfolds?

It is pretty amazing to see Colorado has four wingers scoring at a 55+ point pace, and yet none of them are named Gabriel Landeskog! It's unclear what the team is doing with him, as he's barely logging 14 minutes per game and on PP2. It might be they're easing him into things, although perhaps it's more chicken and egg than that, meaning they're willing to play him more, but he's not forcing the issue and they have plenty of other options. But I'd say it does not bode well for Landy to start to do well, as his IPP overall is 33.3% and the team is shooting 7.0% at 5×5 while he's on the ice, which is a double whammy, meaning he's not helping to generate scoring nor finding a way to factor into what little scoring is occurring. And this despite an OZ% over 50%. So although I won't go so far as to say Landy has no chance of rising again, it's looking like a longshot.

But unlike Landy, Colorado's four other "scoring" wingers, namely Martin Necas, Valeri Nichushkin, Artturi Lehkonen, and Victor Olofsson, are faring quite well. But is it sustainable? After all, there's only room at most three of them on PP1, with Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar, and perhaps even Brock Nelson, who was a featured part of the top unit for times last season.

Right now, Olofsson is on PP1, and certainly making the most of it. But the issue is he's taking the ice for not even 14:00 each game overall. He might continue to thrive on the PP, but not have it translate to him being deployed better overall. A good comparison would be Patrick Laine last season, who managed a mere 14:18 of TOI per game, but was on the ice for over two-thirds of Montreal's man advantage minutes, translating to him scoring 19 PPPts in 52 games, but only 14 other points, resulting in a total scoring pace of 52 points. So I'd say Olofsson is a long shot to continue to produce well in the long haul.

Necas, freshly inked to a long term deal, and for whom the Avs paid what turned out to be a pretty hefty price not just for that contract but to obtain him in trade, is unsurprisingly playing over 21 minutes a game, and looks to be locked into a top line spot both at ES and on the PP. So far the results have been superb; however, his SH% is 32.1%, yet his SOG rate is by far the lowest it's been since he became an NHL regular. The team is shooting at a rate of 13.1% at 5×5 when he's on the ice; but that can only go down, which would be of concern to Necas, since his IPPs, at 65.1% overall and 57.1% on the PP, are not consistent with his scoring output. In short, Necas looks to be benefitting from riding shotgun to Nathan MacKinnon. Or to put it another way, he's looking like more of a passenger than a points magnet, and his scoring is due to a rising tide lifting his boat. The good news is his deployment should continue; but given all the data and metrics, I would expect him to finish much closer to the 87 point pace if even that high – than the 107 scoring rate he's at now.

Lehkonen is off to a hot start, but can it last? Even if we put him in the "small" player category, he's long since past game 400 when he'd have broken out. He's also doing what he'd doing with roughly a minute less ice time than last season, although his OZ% has upticked. His team 5×5 SH% is 15.6%, which is not even ei sustainable. But unlike Necas, his personal SH% is within his normal range, and only two of his eight assists have been secondary and he has no PPts. His overall IPP is 57.1% which is also similar to past seasons, and thus not a concern other than it being low. He does have a prior history of IPPs in tis range; however, none have occurred in his full seasons with the Avs. Given that, it's difficult to see him as someone who can make a leap, and instead to figure on him cooling off and fading to a scoring pace in the 55-65 range.

Lastly there's Nichushkin. We know he'll miss games – it's all but inevitable. The question is whether he can rise again to be the nearly point per game player he was a couple of seasons ago. To me, it seems highly unlikely. Once a lock for PP1, he's bene an odd man out thus far, which is an issue since his best season saw him score over 40% of his points on the PP. His SOG rate and SH% are right where they've been in the seasons since his flirtation with point per game numbers, but his TOI, not just on the PP but overall, is way down in comparison, and in fact lower than any season since he broke out in 2021-22. Another constant is his overall IPP being 60%, a threshold he's never exceeded in Colorado. Truth be told, he seems like a passenger, namely a player who can find success by being boosted by better surrounding talent. But without that, he's good but not great. And of course all this doesn't even factor whether he will suffer in production if – when? – he gets hurt. Don't look for him to finish at higher than a 60 point scoring pace, if even that high.

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Hopefully when it's time for the next mailbag I can answer your actual questions. To get them to me you can either (1) email them to [email protected] with the words "Roos Mailbag" as the subject line, or (2) send them to me via a private message on the DobberHockey Forums, where my username is "rizzeedizzee".

When sending me your questions, remember to provide as much detail about your league/situation as possible. Examples of things I need to know include what type of league you're in (i.e., limited keeper, dynasty, or one-year; roto vs. H2H; auction – if so, what the budget is – or non-auction), how many teams are in the league, does the salary cap matter, how many players are rostered (and of those, how many start at each position as well as how many bench and/or IR spots there are), what categories are scored and how are they weighted, plus other details if pertinent. If your question involves whether to pick up or drop a player, give me a list of top free agents available and let me know if the number of pick-ups is limited or if there is a priority system for pick-ups. If you're thinking of making a trade, it would be good to know not only the roster of the other team you might trade with but also where you stand in your categories. If your question involves keepers, in addition to giving me the options for who to keep, let me know if offseason trading is allowed and to what extent it is a viable option given your league. In sum, the key is to tell me enough for me to give you a truly proper answer, and for readers of this column to benefit from the answer/advice I provide. When in doubt, it's best to err on the side of inclusion since I can always omit or disregard things that don't matter.