We've reached a stage in the season where GMs are wondering if the scoring paces of skaters on their fantasy teams will be sustained, both for good and for bad. This poll looks at skaters who fall into the former category, namely those exceeding preseason expectations, with your votes to decide the ones whose strong starts are indicative of what will unfold for the remainder of 2025-26, versus them coming back to earth.

Below are 19 skaters, with – in parentheses – their scoring pace as of November 23rd and, for comparison, their predicted rate from the DobberHockey Fantasy Guide. You should vote for any and all you believe will finish the season with a scoring rate at least as high as pacing for now. To be clear, this is about scoring rate, not actual points. If a player has a scoring pace of 92 points as of now and finishes with 77 points in 66 games, his end of season scoring rate would be 95; and since that's as high or higher than his current pace, he should get your vote.

You'll notice not every skater who's currently doing amazing is listed as a voting choice. That's because I omitted players defying expectations to such an extent where either there's no way for me to envision them continuing to do so, or it was far less realistic than for the 19 who I did choose. I also didn't include those who are doing only somewhat better, or are not in uncharted territory, since there it would be too easy to foresee them staying at or above their pace. Or to put it another way, I picked 19 skaters for whom it struck me as a true judgment call in terms of whether they can sustain their strong starts.

Why 19 skaters, instead of 20?  I included "None will do so" as the 20th choice, which should be your only vote if you think none of the 19 will end 2025-26 with a scoring rate at or above what their pace is now. At the risk of skewing your voting, in the same poll last season, although more than a handful came very close, zero of the 20 voting choices were able to sustain their early scoring paces; and that came after only one of the 20 choices did so in 2023-24.

Drake Batherson (Predicted Scoring Rate: 75; Current Rate = 91)

After flirting with point per game production in 2021-22, Batherson's scoring rate has settled in the 60s in each subsequent season. To see him pacing for above 90 points is eye opening. There are definite concerns in the form of his very high individual SH%, and the team shooting a stratospheric 16.2% with him on the ice at 5×5. Yet otherwise his metrics are reasonable; and let's not forget he's right at game 400 of his career, which, as a larger player, would be where he might be hitting another gear, so perhaps this can be sustained?

Connor Bedard (Predicted = 74; Current = 121)

Maybe those who preached to be patient with Bedard like Jack Hughes and Nathan MacKinnon were onto something?  Bedard's SOG per game is up by one, and overall ice time is up nearly a minute.  His SH% though is high, as is the team's with him on the ice.  But not super high. His IPPs are stellar, plus a mere four of his 18 assists have been secondary, suggesting he could have even more points. This might be legit.

Tyler Bertuzzi (Predicted = 45; Current = 83)

One would think it's fitting Bertuzzi comes directly after Bedard on the list of choices, but Bedard has been on the ice for 13 of Bertuzzi's 19 points, which is a big chunk but not as much as many likely would've expected. Still, with a SH% of 28.6%, even playing alongside Bedard all the time likely won't enable Bertuzzi to keep up this pace.

Matt Boldy (Predicted = 76; Current = 93)

Many might forget, but Boldy started 2024-25 at roughly the same production rate as he has now. The difference then was Joel Eriksson-Ek, Boldy's normal center, and Kirill Kaprizov, the catalyst to Minnesota's PP, both got hurt. So far though, all are healthy, and Boldy is thriving. If things stay as they are, Boldy might be continue to produce at this level.

Leo Carlsson (Predicted = 58; Current = 108)

Remember when Anaheim was criticized in opting for Carlsson over Adam Fantilli when they picked second overall in the 2023 entry draft? Given what we're seeing from Carlsson now, that might have been prescient. His ice times, overall and on the PP, are low, while his SH% is 20.0%. Yet his team SH% at 5×5 is very reasonable, and his IPP rock solid, suggesting this might be for real.

Macklin Celebrini (Precited = 79; Current = 119)

In my Fearless Forecasts column, I thought it was a big stretch to predict Celebrini scoring 100 points. But now it seems like no longer if he'll reach 100, but by how many points he'll exceed the century mark. His individual SH% and team SH% at 5×5 are not going to stay this high, and his IPPs are elevated, even for a player of his caliber.  Yet like Bedard his secondary assist rate is low at 31.6%, suggesting points he might lose could be at least somewhat offset.

Kyle Connor (Predicted = 88; Current = 103)

Last season legitimized Connor as a 90+ point player; however, he's yet to hit the century mark in points.  That might be set to change though, as he's above the threshold now despite nothing out of the ordinary in terms of SOG rate, TOI and individual SH%. Yes, his team SH% is high at 14.2%; but his secondary assist rate is miniscule. This seems like the real deal.

Alex DeBrincat (Predicted = 70; Current =89)

When looking up DeBrincat's prior stats, I was surprised to see he'd been a point per game player only once, five seasons ago. In each of the past three seasons his scoring rate was 66-70, making him about as consistent as they came. Seeing him scoring at a rate north of nearly 90 raises eyebrows. His SH% is actually lower than his norm by a decent amount and his team SH% at 5×5 even lower. Perhaps his lower SH% is due in part to him firing 3.9 pucks on net per game, would be a career high by far. He's well above his career best IPPs, so that may be where there could be regression. Still though, this might be legit.

Morgan Geekie (Predicted = 56; Current = 78)

When he arrived in Boston, Geekie did not make an immediate impact in a full season. In fact, it wasn't until the second half of last season, his second campaign for Boston, that he started to truly thrive. Is this due to him being tethered to David Pastrnak?  Almost assuredly. But even if so, and with there being no threat to his spot, he could be a younger version of Zack Hyman, in which case more of the same is foreseeable.

Cutter Gauthier (Predicted = 46; Current = 97)

An elite scorer in college, Gauthier was always regarded as a top prospect who had a bright NHL future. Is that future now though? He's firing 4.5 pucks on net per game, but not taking the ice for even 18:00 per contest nor seeing heaps of PP time. But neither his SH% nor the team's at 5×5 are super high, and his IPPs are reasonable. He could well keep this up.

Matthew Knies (Predicted = 62; Current = 95)

There was concern Knies would falter when tasked with stepping into Mitch Marner's shoes. But instead, he's thrived, this despite nearly no PP scoring and a low – for him – SH%. The team is shooting 14.1% with him on the ice at 5×5, but his other metrics are rock solid. Maybe he already is Marner 2.0?

Nathan MacKinnon (Predicted = 116; Current = 144)

Although his current scoring rate is amazingly not uncharted territory, he has seemingly settled into "only" producing in the 110-120 point range in other recent seasons.  His SH% is too high, and for him to be doing this despite a TOI that is down by more than one minute versus 2024-25 is iffy.  And there is no universe where he ends the season averaging over five minutes on the PP as he is now.  But if there's one player who can defy the odds, and the way the winds seemingly should blow, it's Mighty Mac.

Cale Makar (Predicted = 94; Current = 109)

If Erik Karlsson, at age 32 and for the Sharks, could top 100 points, can't Makar?  Seemingly he can, although it hasn't happened yet.  But with the Avs looking like they've upped the ante, and Makar pacing for fewer PPPts than normal plus with only a slightly elevated SH% and reasonable IPPs, this might the year he hits triple digits.

Josh Morrissey (Predicted = 66; Current = 90)

In 2022-23 Morrissey came from nowhere to post nearly point per game numbers.  Since then though his scoring rate has dropped, making that season seem like a fluke.  But lo and behold he is thriving again.  Yes, the team's SH% at 5×5 with him on the ice is quite high; however, all his other metrics look reasonable.  This might be Morrissey reestablishing himself as a top level rearguard point producer.

Martin Necas (Predicted = 89; Current = 109)

Once again Necas has been scorching out of the gate.  But as we saw last season, that didn't last, and he was well below a point per game in the second half.  The differences now though are he's a UFA to be, and playing alongside MacKinnon at ES and on the PP.  But whereas the SH% of other voting choices is arguably too high, his is more than double his career rate, making it seem less likely he can keep doing as well as he is at present.

Nick Schmaltz (Predicted = 63; Current = 82)

Many might have forgotten that Schmaltz produced in the 70s for two straight seasons not that long ago.  But in the prior two campaigns, he was down at a 63 point pace.  For 2025-26, his ice time is way up, he's on PP1, plus shooting lots more.  He also seems tethered to Clayton Keller, which is a great spot.  His IPPs are high for him, whereas Keller's are lower than usual though, meaning perhaps Schmaltz has grabbed points early on that should've gone to Keller and will over time.

Tom Wilson (Predicted = 56; Current 78)

After 2023-24, it looked like Wilson was cooked.  But last season he thrived, and now he's faring even better, all despite being at an age when rough and tumble players usually start to see their production nosedive.  But Wilson's TOI has never been higher, and he's a regular on PP1, plus his team SH% is, if anything, low.  His IPPs though are very high for him, and likely unsustainable.

Cam York (Precited = 30; Current = 48)

Many thought Philly inking York to a $5M per season deal in the offseason was a head scratcher.  But his early results show they might have been wise to do so.  But closer inspection shows that York is hardly shooting, getting too high a percentage of PPPts on PPGs scored while he's on the ice, and this level of scoring is not consistent with someone who starts fewer than 50% of his shifts in the offensive zone.

Trevor Zegras (Predicted = 65; Current = 86)

After a great start to his career, Zegras' scoring rate cratered, although in fairness he missed nearly a full season's worth of games over the past two campaigns.  On a new team with a fresh start, he's thriving, although with a high team SH% at 5×5 and high, even for him, IPPs.  But he won't have to be superhuman to keep up this pace, so it could be doable.

************

To reiterate, you should vote for however many of the 19 choices you believe will end 2025-26 with a scoring pace at least as high as what it is now, as denoted in their parentheticals.  And to be clear, it's scoring pace that counts, not actual points.  And if you think none of them will be able to maintain their current paces, vote for the 20th choice, "None will do so."  Click here to cast your vote(s).

************

Questions for Mailbag Column

My monthly mailbag needs questions. To get yours to me, either private message “rizzeedizzee” via the DobberHockey Forums or, instead, send an email to [email protected] with “Roos Mailbag” as the subject line.