This week on Frozen Tool Forensics we are going with a classic hot and cold column. We are taking a look at several players on hot and cold streaks and trying to figure out if there is something sustainable happening, or if we should expect them to revert back to their usual.

In order to grab players for this article we are using the Frozen Tools homepage. Each team has a link section and at the bottom of their box is a list of the current hot and cold players. Today we are going through some of the more notable names from those lists. All data is up to date as of December 4th, prior to the Thursday night games.

First up the hot streaks.

Gabriel Landeskog has really exploded with seven points in his last four games. That comes after just seven points in the 22 games prior to that. This burst of production has come with a promotion to the top power play and a big uptick in his overall ice time. He also has a five- and six-shot game in this stretch. It also helps that his second line with Brock Nelson has been doing a bit better. Nelson was cold as ice to start the season with five points through the first 14 games but has 12 points over his last 10. I think the recommendation here is clear. If Landeskog is available anywhere, you want him. He is scoring, shooting, hitting (if that is valuable to you), and on a potent top power play.

There are caveats though. First is Landeskog's injury history. He hasn't played a full season since 2014-15 and this is his first real set of games since the end of 2021-22. So, the party could end at any moment. Also, for some reason, he wasn't on the top power-play to start the season and it isn't entirely clear what prompted the switch, so it also could be reversed at any moment. The moral of the story is you want him while he is in this position, so until he is actually injured, or dropped off the top unit he should be rostered.

Over in Nashville, the Predators are finally scoring some goals and Luke Evangelista has been a big part of that with eight points in his last six games. He has been playing with Steven Stamkos and Ryan O'Reilly, which a few years ago would be top notch deployment, but there certainly have been question marks with Stamkos' time in Nashville. Overall though Evangelista's time on ice, power-play deployment, and shot rates have all increased over this last series of games. He clearly won't score eight points every six games, but if his overall deployment sticks, this pace of 60-ish points looks pretty sustainable. He could get relegated back to the bottom six at any moment, so if you take a chance on him don't get comfortable, but I am interested in the short term.

Dawson Mercer had a great start to the season, got real cold, but has not been heating up again with four points in his last four games. The absence of Jack Hughes in the lineup has meant that Mercer has been filling in behind Nico Hischeir and once again getting time on the top power play. New Jersey is loading up that top line so Mercer's even strength linemates are not ideal but getting that power-play exposure is definitely a good thing. Hughes will still be out for a chunk of time so Mercer likely will retain some value. He has not been a consistent shooter though so when the points dry up, he can be a big of a challenging fantasy hold.

Trevor Zegras has been enjoying life in Philly this year, experiencing a bit of the resurgence we have been waiting for. On the season he has bounced back to a point-per-game pace with five points in his last four games. The lines in Philadelphia have shuffled around a bit, but he has often been Christian Dvorak and Matvei Michkov or Travis Konecny. Either way, consistently improved ice time and more than 50% of the power-play time looks good on him. He might not end the season with quite a point-per-game pace, but a lot of this certainly looks real.

A four-point game is certainly going to put a player on the hot list, but Ryan Leonard also now has a four-game point streak and eight points in his last five games. Leonard is likely going to be a fantasy mainstay in the future, the question just is timing. As of now there are some positive signs, but there is no guarantee. In the Capitals game on December 3rd, he saw the most power-play time on a group with Tom Wilson, Alex Ovechkin, and Dylan Strome, however still saw less than 14 total minutes, and was in the bottom six at even strength. Leonard has been getting more than 50% of the team's power-play time through most of this point stretch, but his overall time is all over the place. He has been shooting reasonably well so if he can stay on the top unit, I am cautiously optimistic in the short term, but there remains a strong likelihood he gets bumped and loses a lot of value. 

Up in the Arctic north we have a bunch of cold players.

Despite quite a few hot players in Nashville recently, Filip Forsberg does not make the list. He has only two points in his last seven games. Ultimately it is hard to get too concerned here. He is still a main driving force for the Predators and the points will come. He is only on a 54-point pace so that is a bit concerning, and he has actually dropped his power-play percentage this season, so that is something else to watch. If he continues to get 50% or less of the team's power-play time, we can start to worry, but hopefully it is just a short blip.

Mathew Barzal has one point in his last five games and is currently on a 57-point pace. That is well aligned with his 55-point pace from 24-25, though well off the 75-80 bounce-back pace managers might have been hoping for. A big part of that dip in 24-25 came from only four power-play points. He currently has three and has maybe earned a couple more, but otherwise things look pretty consistent for Barzal. It would be nice if he got to play with Bo Horvat at even strength, but over he is getting 21 minutes a night and on the top power-play. Generally, it seems like a 60-ish point pace would be a pretty reasonable expectation for Barzal going forward.

Logan Cooley makes the list here on a bit of a technicality. He has not pointed in three straight games, but prior to that he had seven points in three games. The fits and starts are not surprising with a young player and overall, he is on pace to match his 70-ish point season from 24-25. This year though he has a very high shooting percentage while a lot of his other stats remain mostly the same. His expected goal numbers have improved though, and he has earned a bit more than he has gotten on the power-play so that could offset a little of the production he might lose when his shooting percentage regresses. Overall, it is hard to argue too much with Cooley's production, though I would continue to expect it to be a little boom and bust. 

Quinn Hughes is also pointless in three and only has two points in his last six games. Full season, an 82-point pace is hard to be disappointed with. Unfortunately, it is 10 points off his production from the past two seasons. Overall, there are no real causes for concern. He is often approaching 30 minutes a night recently, getting almost all the power-play time, is shooting, and is participating on goals scored while he is on the ice. The only slight variance seems to be his personal shooting percentage, which is a little less than half his recent number. If that ticks back up he is likely right on his usual pace. So, while it's a bit of a downer that he has gone a few games without a point, I see no reason to be concerned.

That is all for this week.

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