Hey everyone! Whether you're a returning reader of the premier source for NHL salary cap insight or you wandered in by happy accident, I'm glad you're here. Welcome!

This week, I'm zeroing in on players and contracts that haven't lived up to last season's standard. And if you happen to be, purely hypothetically, in a 24‑team salary league where every night feels like sudden death and your roster is limping along at 2–11, and perhaps even named after a now defunct team from Danville, IL, then you understand how every single move becomes crucial strategy. Not that I'm talking about my own team. Absolutely not. No way.

You may also be at or near the top of your league and something that I've always said that I believe holds true in fantasy hockey – think of it like a line graph going up to where the bottom is less risk, the top being higher risk. If you make a roster move towards the beginning of the season, rarely does it have negative long-term ramifications. The further the season rolls along; those same adds and plays become more important as there's far less leigh way in close leagues.

Ryan Donato, C, Chicago Blackhawks $4M AAV

I'm leading off with Ryan Donato because I'm a Blackhawks fan and his player page on Frozen Tools happened to be up on my second screen. Do you guys not have Frozen Tools up on your work screen all day or are you normal?

If you happen to be rostering Donato over the past calendar year, then you know that it's been a roller coaster of sorts. There was a very high likelihood that he would be dealt at the deadline, which would have been excellent news for you in that case had he gone to a contender, and that would have only added to his value. There was also the added wrinkle that he was due for a contract and that always means looking at your roster from a big picture standpoint and trying to figure where to allocate salary or where to cut. What happened? The Hawks decided to hold onto Donato and give him a pay raise, and in my Hawks circles this meant one thing – playing alongside Connor Bedard, which he did so excellent last season and the season prior to that even though only like 14 of us were probably paying attention at that point.

This season Bedard has missed time with a shoulder injury, but even prior to him landing on the injured list, Donato has skated more along the Hawks checking line than up with Bedard and that has led to a decline in his offensive numbers. Maybe the 62-point season was a flash in the pan and he's right back around the 30-point player that he's been his entire career, but the issue is his $4M AAV is like right on the line for salary leagues regarding play or bench/waiver. That number is manageable enough to roster, so adding to waivers would likely mean he's swept up, but it's higher than the $2M players that are needed to help fill your roster. While I do think that Donato is probably going to land somewhere in the mid-30's as far as points, it is disappointing for those out there who held out rostering him after a very positive 2024-25 season.

Jordan Kyrou, RW, St. Louis Blues $8.1M AAV

I can't be the only one that was higher on this club coming into the season, right? Just a second away (literally) from advancing to the second round of the 2025 Playoffs with a decent core coming in, I was right there potentially draft them in our Points Pool. Every season there's one club that just goes through the ringer, and maybe it's the Blues? With that, let's talk Jordan Kyrou.

I'm not sure what's happening here with Kyrou but at an AAV over $8M and coming off a 70-point season, this is a player that I'd lean to bench more often than start in your league. Kyrou's a player that I've always liked and have plenty of Blues fan friends who seem to be 50/50 on him. They watch this club closer than I do now, so I'll take their word for it. His shooting percentage is way down from last season, going form around 15% to 8.9%. He is also seeing a lower 60-minute shot rate as that is now down at 1.9%, whereas last season that was a full point higher. Go down the list, points per game, hits, etc. are all on the lower side.

In cap leagues, the bright side is that he is currently in his age-27 season, and maybe this is just one of those outlier seasons and next year he'll return to the mid-60 point player that he's been for the past five years. This might be a player that has a stronger end to the season, but for now Kyrou would be a player that I'd sit rather than start unless it was between Kyrou and a bottom-six player on your roster, especially in smaller leagues where your roster may be limited.

Aliaksei Protas, C/LW, Washington Capitals $3.4M AAV

Here's a player on this list that I do think will bounce back some this season, and it's Aliaksei Protas. We have a live draft for my main league over in the wild west of ESPN, and when Protas was drafted a few of us shot my buddy who took him a look. You guys know the one, a player is on your watchlist and you're thinking about drafting him, and then, poof! Gone.

I don't want to say everything went right for the Capitals last season, but man, it sure does feel like it looking back at that club. While Protas has been good this season, I don't think any of us expect the 66-point year that he had in 2024-25 to replicate as we sit here in a snow squall in mid-January. Seriously, there have been moments where I can't see out of my window right now and then out of nowhere the sun will come out and shine on the lovely SW Chicago suburbs.

Where I'm encouraged is that Protas offensive zone start times are around the same along with his expected goals % at even strength and that's important stat for him as Protas doesn't get the power play time that others on this Capitals roster do, so you're really leaning on even strength to produce offense for fantasy. There is more good news for him as well, as Tom Wilson should return to the lineup soon and Wilson is typically his line mate, and in the Capitals' next five games, they'll see San Jose (Wednesday night), then favorable matchups against Vancouver and Calgary. He's going to remain under the $4M AAV mark until 2029, so rostering him isn't too steep.

*Salary Cap data from PuckPedia.com  

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