Welcome back to Goldipucks and the Three Skaters, a play on words of the Goldilocks and the Three Bears story. Instead of there being three bowls of porridge though, I cover three skaters and declare one too hot (i.e., doing unsustainably better than he should), another too cold (i.e., doing unsustainably worse), and a third “just right” (i.e., producing where he should be). In addition, I also assign each a rating of 1-10, indicating how hot (rated 7-10, where 10 is the most unsustainably hot), cold (rated 1-4, where 1 is the most unsustainably cold), or “just right” (rated 4-7, where 5.5 is the most “just right”) he is.

Today the NHL resumes after the Olympic break, and the focus can shift back to those who, due to not being chosen or their nationality, did not play in the Tournament. Let's focus on three of them (Lane Hutson, Cole Caufield, Connor Bedard), to see what to expect from each between now and the end of the season. I know it's been a few weeks since you've seen any of them play an NHL game, but still try to see if your instincts are correct about which of them has been too hot thus far this season, who's been too cold, and whose play has been "just right" such that we should expect more of the same between now and game 82.

Lane Hutson (57 GP, 10G, 48A, 91 SOG, 23:42 TOI, 16 PPPts, 3:05 PP, 66.9% PP%)

Likely due to his size, Hutson slipped to nearly the end of round two before being grabbed by the Habs. He proceeded to shine as a member of one of the best college hockey programs at Boston College, and tallied two points in two games in a brief NHL cameo at the end of 2023-24. That was enough to convince the Habs to give Hutson a chance to shine, and to say he seized upon it would be a vast understatement, as he totaled 66 points in 2024-25 despite only seven in his first 14 contests. For 2025-26 he's upped the ante, staying right at a point per game pace for the entire season. Can it be sustained? For the time being, seemingly no.

Looking at Hutson's stats, his 11.0% SH% certainly stands out. The fact he's such a selective shooter would seem to be able to justify a SH% which might be higher than most; but his combination of very low SOG rate, with high goal total and SH% is a concern when looking at player comparables. Dating back to 1990-91, there've been 84 instances of a d-man who finished the season in double digits for both goals total and SH%, yet didn't average two SOG per game. How many of them were point per game scorers? Try one – Adam Fox, and he was at 1.9 SOG per game, versus 1.6 for Hutson. Of the 84, the only ones who scored at even a 50 point rate despite averaging 1.6 SOG or less were Calle Johansson (56 points in 80 games), Kimmo Timonen (55 points in 80 games) and Steve Smith (54 points in 77 games), with Timonen being the only one since 1991-92. This is a concern, as even if we liken Hutson to Fox, we know that Fox has just that one season of point per game scoring to his credit, maybe due in part to his SOG rate still staying below two per game.

As for Hutson's other metrics, his secondary assist rate is down slightly to 50%, which is roughly where most of the top scoring d-men are, so that is less of a concern, although at the same time unlikely to yield more points. His PPTOI is a good bit below that of most of the top defensemen scorers, as is the percentage of the team's PP minutes he's on the ice, which is barely at two-thirds versus 75% or even more for other top rearguards. But his PP IPP is 51.6%, which for a "normal" defenseman would be superb; however; of the other d-men in the top 15 for PPPts, only four are below 60%, with six at 70% or higher. So he's not forcing the issue, that's for sure. If he was to get more PPTOI, it does not seem like the scoring floodgates would open.

What this also means is he has more ES points than most elite d-men, standing second in that stat. The reason for this is his overall IPP is 55.2%, higher than his PP IPP. He is in the same ballpark as elite defensemen in that area, which is good. Still, nearly all top tier d-men do not have a ratio of two ES points per every PPPt, like Hutson does. What this suggests is Hutson is grabbing points that forwards are not, likely due to Montreal's forwards not being as productive as forwards on most teams. But Montreal has young forwards showing signs of making further strides this season. Although that will lead to more goals on the whole, given his dependence on even strength points and secondary assists, Hutson might not benefit, and in fact could see some of his points dry up.

Something also to consider is Hutson's combination of consistency and explosiveness, as he has the second most multipoint games among defensemen at 16, but also is the third most consistent, having scored a point in 68.4% of his games. Sounds great, right? Maybe not, as it is essentially unheard of for a defenseman to be in the top three for both. While I attribute this at least in part to skill, it likely has to do more with the reality of the offensive load he's carrying for Montreal, which, as I noted, is poised to shrink.

On a positive note, Hutson is succeeding despite his OZ% having dropped from a very high 66.1% last season to 56.4% this season. At the same time the team's 5×5 shooting percentage with him on the ice is 12.8%, which is staggeringly high, as Cale Makar is at 11.6%, Quinn Hughes at 11.3%, and Zach Werenski at 10.8%. That has nowhere to go but down, negatively affecting Hutson's production since I think it is unlikely for his OZ% to go back up, now that he's proven himself capable of being less sheltered.

Finding fault with Huston can seem like nitpicking; but it does appear he is scoring at an rate that's at least a bit too high, making his 2025-26 TOO HOT. Between his SH% and the team's, plus his low SOG rate and abnormal combination of being very consistent and very explosive, as well as Montreal's younger forwards starting to syphon away points he'd have otherwise scored, he seems like more of a 75 point d-man, making his rating 8.0.

Cole Caufield (57P, 35G, 22A, 172 SOG, 18:13 TOI, 20 PPPts, 3:11 PP, 69.1% PP%)

Standing even shorter than Hutson, Caufield nevertheless was a first round pick, having shined at every developmental level for US hockey. He too opted for college hockey, but was in the NHL to stay at age 20. To say he's succeeding would be an understatement, as like his frequent linemate Nick Suzuki all Caufield has done is seen his scoring rise each season, and with it on pace to do yet again. Should we expect him to do even better over the remainder of 2025-26, paving the way for further success in 2026-27? Probably not, as I think he might have reached his realistic scoring ceiling given his deployment.

Although Caufield has indeed seen his scoring rate rise with each successive season, he was able to do so despite below average PP scoring, as from 2021-22 through 2024-25 he had the 61st highest PPTOI among all forwards, yet only the 85th most PPPts. Factoring in this season, the gap is a bit less wide, as his PPTOI ranks him 56th and his PPPts 72nd. Still, even with these small strides, his PP IPP for 2025-26 is 60.6%, which is quite low for a point per gamer and does not bode well for him to morph into a strong PP performer despite him hitting his short in stature 400-game breakout threshold very soon.

Compounding the issue is lack of gains in TOI. He keeps getting better as far as production, yet his TOI remains barely above 18:00 per game. It would be one thing if, despite this low TOI, he was seeing heaps of time in the offensive zone, yet his OZ% is 55.4%, which is not amazing. He is impactful though, as Montreal is shooting 11.4% at 5×5 when he's on the ice for this season thus far, which would mark the third of the last four seasons to see that mark at 11.0% or higher. His overall IPP is ticking upward, which is also a good sign. As noted, he is on the cusp of hitting his "small player" 400-game breakout threshold.

But I'm afraid that all these positives, and the innate skill he possesses, cannot individually or even collectively overcome realistic limits that are placed on his scoring due to his low TOI and PPPt rates. Dating back to 2000-01, there have been 80 instances of a LW – according to nhl.com positions – who produced at a scoring rate of 1.05 per game (i.e., an 86 point full season rate) while playing in 41+ games. Looking at the results, I was surprised that 23, or nearly 30% did so despite not averaging 19:00 per game in that same season. Yet if we dig deeper, just six did so while averaging less than 18:13, at or below which Caufield has been in three of the last four seasons. On top of that, nearly all of those 23 had a higher PPPt pace than Caufield this season even after his jump in PPPt scoring.

A comparable though is Jason Robertson, who had 79 points in 74 games in 2021-22 despite only 18:07 TOI per game and 21 PPPts. But whereas JRob's TOI was throttled because of a coaching philosophy, I think that is not the case with Caufield, especially given no forward on Dallas in 2021-22 averaged even 18:30 per game, whereas this season Nick Suzuki is at 20:43. Yes, no other winger is getting more TOI than Caufield, so it's possible he sees gains; but if he was going to I think it would 've happened by now, versus him holding so steady.

As for other metrics, his SH%, at 18.6%, quite a bit above his career rate of 12.7%, and not due to fewer SOGs, as he's at 3.0 per game versus 2.9 last season when he shot at a rate of 15.5%. Still, this might not be as concerning as it seems, since he may be morphing into a more accurate shooter, plus it could be a result of him nearing his breakout threshold. Also, his secondary assist rate is 40%, which is not at all high, and in keeping with prior seasons.

Caufield's streak of improving every season of his career is impressive, especially since it all occurred before he hit his 400-game breakout threshold. But he is not getting more ice time despite this, and his PP production, though improving, is still not at the level where, if his TOI doesn't increase, his scoring can realistically continue seeing gains. As such, Caufield's 2025-26 has been JUST RIGHT, and he gets a rating of 5.5, as despite his approaching 400 game breakout threshold I don't see him as being able to continue to improve until/unless he gets more TOI and/or ups his PP production.

Connor Bedard (57P, 35G, 22A, 172 SOG, 18:13 TOI, 20 PPPts, 3:11 PP, 69.1% PP%)

Anointed a generational talent before he set foot on NHL ice, expectations were that Bedard would produce top tier numbers right away. That didn't happen either as a rookie or in his second season, igniting doubting whispers, but also supporters pointing to the likes of Jack Hughes and particularly Nathan MacKinnon to tell folks to not press the panic button. Indeed until getting injured Bedard was a totally different player this season, scoring in droves and finding himself near the top of the scoring race. His scoring hasn't been quite as strong since returning from injury, so what does the remainder of 2025-26 have in store for him and GMs whose teams he's on? Points – and lots of them.

Although, as noted, many expected Bedard to be among the most elite players immediately upon entering the NHL, the fact he wasn't – until now – should not come as such a shock, as he's thriving in the season which coincides with his 200-game breakout threshold. Yes, that 200-game mark is not always a true barometer, but often it is, and here it lends credibility to what Bedard is doing in 2025-26.

Keep in mind as well that he sits a 1.2 points per game despite not only missing a chunk of time due to injury but having only nine points in 13 games upon returning prior to the break, which means he was derailed, and it is seemingly taking time for him to hit his full stride yet again. The Olympic layoff probably won't help matters, or then again maybe it will, as perhaps Bedard was not fully back to health when returning. What is true is there will be enough games left after the break for him to see his scoring pace get back to what it was pre-injury, or even better, which I think will occur. Why am I so confident? Because his metrics are otherworldly.

Looking first at his IPPs, his overall IPP is 82.8% and on the PP it's an even higher 83.8%. Of course that is due in part to him not having anyone with anywhere near his talent on the ice with him; however, it still puts him in nearly uncharted territory, as there's exactly one other center this season with an overall IPP of 80% or higher, and that is none other than Macklin Celebrini. There are only two centers with higher PP IPPs, those being Nick Suzuki, who, although not a superstar, has gotten better every season and looks to be on his way to what might be his first 100-point campaign, and Nathan MacKinnon, who's as elite as they come. Bedard's IPPs basically put him among the best of the best NHL centers.

Beyond that, Bedard's offensive zone starting percentage is only 54.5%, which is very low as compared to Connor McDavid (64.8%), MacKinnon (63.1%), and Leon Draisaitl (60.4%), yet nearly identical to Celebrini (54.3%). Yet another metric that seems to suggest if Bedard hadn't gotten hurt he could be right there alongside Celebrini in terms of scoring rate.

It gets even better, as Bedard has a secondary assist percentage of a mere 26.7%, while all of the aforementioned star centers are in the mid 30s. Again this is likely a function of the fact that Bedard has to be more of the star of the show, so to speak, as he has by far the weakest supporting class of those elite centers. Yet even still, 26.7% is so low that it can only go up, and, with that, his scoring.

The Hawks are shooting 12.2% at ES while Bedard is on the ice. That's well lower than rates for MacKinnon (13.5%) and Celebrini (14.9%), but higher than McDavid (10.2%) and Draisaitl (11.0%). Most telling though is the highest percentage for any other Hawk forward is 10.2%, whereas MacKinnon has other forwards just as high, as do McDavid and Draisaitl. Yet again, only Celebrini is a parallel, as he too stands far above his teammates.

Looking at the PP, Bedard is barely averaging one PPPt per every three games (34%), even though his PP IPP is stellar. Contrast that to Celebrini (43%), MacKinnon (40%), Draisaitl (62%) and McDavid (67%) and it's easy to see he has the most room for organic gains in this area. It's a similar story for SOG, as Bedard is well below the rate of MacKinnon and McDavid, above that of Draisaitl, but nearly on a par with Celebrini.

Going into the break, Bedard's scoring pace was 99 points, whereas Celebrini's was 121. As has been shown here though, Bedard is every bit Celebrini's equal. Accordingly, Bedard's 2025-26 has been TOO COLD, and he gets a rate of 1.75, as although he doesn't have the same talent around him as Celebrini, nor will he have Olympic momentum, he'll likely score at a 110-115 point pace over the remainder of the season, assuming of course there are no residual effects of his injury.

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Questions for Mailbag 

My monthly mailbag is set to run next week and has room for more questions. To get yours to me, send (1) a private message to “rizzeedizzee” via the DobberHockey Forums, or (2) an email to [email protected] with “Roos Mailbag” as the subject line.