Ramblings: Season Performances From Askarov, Swayman, Schmid, and More – March 17

Michael Clifford

2026-03-17

It is NCAA signing season and we saw Boston University's Cole Hutson ink his three-year entry-level contract with Washington over the weekend. More dominoes are falling as Hutson's teammate Sacha Boisvert signed his three-year ELC with the Chicago Blackhawks on Monday, per Charlie Roumeliotis. Boisvert was drafted 14th overall in the 2024 draft and had 17 points in 26 games with BU this season.

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The Colorado Avalanche had a familiar face back at practice in Gabriel Landeskog:

Artturi Lehkonen was also at practice but left early, so it seems as if Landeskog is closer to returning.

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A pair of goals from Patrick Kane lifted the Detroit Red Wings to a 5-2 win over Calgary. Moritz Seider also scored, managing two shots, two blocks, and two PIMs in a very good multi-cat night. Seider needs one more goal for his first-ever double-digit scoring season and needs four more points to set a career-high in that regard.

John Gibson stopped 25 of 27 shots for his 25th win, his most in any season since 2018-19.

Matt Coronato had a goal and an assist in the loss, his first multi-point game since January 25th.

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Paul Cotter scored twice, including in overtime for a 4-3 New Jersey win over Boston on Monday night.  Connor Brown also had a multi-point night with a goal, an assist, two PIMs, and a hit.

Jack Hughes had a trio of helpers with four shots and two blocks. He has 15 points and 34 shots in 10 games since the Olympics.

David Pastrnak scored twice in the loss for Boston. Fraser Minten was moved up to the top line in place of Elias Lindholm and Minten skated over 18 minutes in the game (over 16 in regulation.

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In Artemi Panarin's return to New York, he assisted a Drew Doughty goal as the Kings beat the Rangers 4-1. Alex Laferriere had a big night with a goal, two assists, three shots, two PIMs, and two hits. It leaves Laferriere three goals shy of his first 20-goal season.

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Darcy Kuemper had a nice fantasy night with 21 saves on 22 shots for the win.

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Utah scored four times in the third period to move past the Dallas Stars by a 6-3 score. The Mammoth had six different goal scorers and no one had a multi-point night, but Clayton Keller and Lawson Crouse both had a goal in the win. The goal gives Crouse 17 on the season, needing three more for his fourth 20-goal campaign in the last five.

Vitek Vanecek was very good (better than the surface stats might show) as he stopped 27 of 30 shots for the win.

Wyatt Johnston had a nice redirect goal for his 37th tally of the season. He is 1 of 17 forwards with over 100 goals across the last three seasons (102). He is also the only player with over 100 goals at the age of 22 or younger over the last three seasons, managing 25 more goals than the next-closest player.

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Evgeni Malkin returned from his five-game suspension and did so with a statement game as Pittsburgh thwomped Colorado 7-2. Malkin had two goals, an assist, three shots, and four PIMs. Erik Karlsson had a three-point night of his own with a goal, two assists, and four shots.

Malkin was back with his usual line mates in Egor Chinakhov and Tommy Novak, and Malkin's return pushed Chinakhov off the top PP unit.

Bryan Rust, Elmer Soderblom, and Noel Acciari all managed a goal and an assist.

Arturs Silovs held the Avalanche to two goals on 27 shots in victory.

Nathan MacKinnon scored in the loss and is the second player with at least 110 points this season.

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There is a month left in the season and fantasy managers out of their head-to-head playoffs, or out of the championship race, need to evaluate their rosters for next season. That includes goaltenders, which can be as frustrating as anything in any fantasy sport.

When it comes to goaltenders in fantasy, two things are true:

  • The numbers determine success, regardless of how 'well' a goalie plays. A great goalie on a horrific team will probably have bad fantasy numbers, and that's all that matters to us.
  • Goaltender performance is greatly influenced by what happens in front of them, so if we're evaluating goalies, we need to look deeper than their surface-level stats.

Today, we're going to look a bit deeper, and specifically look at what happened with goalies in their non-even strength minutes (power play and penalty kill). The big reason is players shoot ~13.6% on special teams and 10.5% otherwise. All things equal, goalies facing a disproportionately high number of shots on the PP/PK will have a tougher workload than those who don't.

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Data is from Natural Stat Trick and is current as of Monday, March 16th. We are using only goalies with at least 1100 even-strength minutes, which gives us 49 goalies, or starters, tandems, and top backups.

The red and blue dotted lines represent the league average in each stat.

Yaroslav Askarov (San Jose Sharks)

An .886 save percentage doesn't seem like a good season for Askarov when the league average is .896. However, out of our 49 goalies, he is 1 of 3 goalies to play at least 18% of his ice time on special teams, face at least 20% of his shots on the PP/PK, and at least 25% of his high-danger shots at the same strengths. It doesn't put him quite in a tier of his own, but it's not far off:

There is an argument that Alex Nedeljkovic has been the better of the two goalies this season, but just 17.2% of shots faced by Nedeljkovic have been on the PP/PK, which is actually lower than the league average of 17.7%, where Askarov is at 20.6%, or the fourth-highest rate in our sample. If there is an argument that Nedeljkovic has been the better goalie, there is a similar argument that Askarov has not only faced a much harder workload than Goalie Ned, but one of the toughest workloads in the league.  

Sam Montembeault (Montreal Canadiens)

From 2022-2025, Montembeault managed a .902 save percentage, which isn't great overall, but considering Montreal was one of the worst defensive teams in the league in those three seasons, it is pretty good in that context.

In 2025-26, Montreal is better defensively (though still below average), which is what makes Montembeault's season surprising: out of 56 goalies with at least 20 starts, his .873 save percentage is 54th. However, the reason we said there's only an argument that Askarov had one of the toughest workloads in the league is that Montembeault is in the same boat by percentage of PP/PK shots and high-danger shots against:

Additionally, of the 49 goalies in our sample, Montembeault has spent the second-most time on the power play or penalty kill at 18.5%. Having a tough workload is nothing new for Montembeault, but there is necessary context here.

Good goalies have down fantasy seasons all the time. Connor Hellebuyck just had a three-year run as the best goalie in the world and this season his save percentage is outside the top-20 starters. Igor Shesterkin has had a much better season after a career-worst save percentage last year. Montembeault had a three-year run as a great goalie, and he'll get the chance to at least be in a tandem situation next year, and the team in front of him should improve. He has not been good, but that also gives keeper/dynasty managers a buy-low window.  

Jeremy Swayman (Boston Bruins)

As mentioned, there are three goalies whom we can argue have probably faced the toughest workload in the league this year (maybe four if we include Ilya Sorokin). The first two are Askarov and Montembeault, and the third is Swayman. On the season, over 23% of his shots faced have been on the PP or PK, and no other goalie is over 22% (Montembeault is closest at 21.1%):

The fact that this is the workload Swayman has faced, and that he's still rebounded in a big way from a poor 2024-25 season, is a testament to just how good he has been. It seems unlikely that he will be a true Vezina Trophy contender – barring a collapse, it seems like Andrei Vasilevskiy's to lose – but Swayman should probably finish top-5 in voting. The Bruins are in the thick of the playoff race in the East and they probably wouldn't be if Swayman weren't having this kind of season.

Akira Schmid (Vegas Golden Knights)

As things stand, Adin Hill has made four straight starts for Vegas and is coming off a 4-0 shutout on Saturday night. It stands to reason he'll make a fifth straight start on Tuesday, and that would be the first time this season any Vegas goalie has started five team games in a row.

The reason for that is Schmid has not been able to take the reigns despite every opportunity to do so. It has been a disappointing season when we consider that of the 49 goalies in our sample, Schmid's workload has the lowest percentage of shots against, lowest percentage of HD shots against, and lowest percentage of ice time coming from the PP/PK:

Having one of, if not the, easiest workload in the league but ranking 29th out of 41 goalies with at least 25 starts is a bad season, and Hill has given up just 10 goals in his last five starts, which is why he's getting the starts now. Schmid could enter the picture again if Hill falters, but he's an RFA after the season (per PuckPedia) and it's a wonder if the team brings him back given what he's done.

Jordan Binnington (St. Louis Blues)

There are 30 goalies in the league who've made at least 30 starts. Of those 30 goalies, Binnington ranks 30th by save percentage at .871. Even when factoring in higher shooting percentages across the league, Binnington is having the worst season of his career.

What makes it even more troubling is Binnington's workload – it is not at the level of Schmid, but it is in the next tier for lowest percentage of shots against on the PP/PK, HD shots against, and TOI:

Even worse is that teammate Joel Hofer has faced more PP/PK shots, more high-danger shots, and has still had the much better numbers. Binnington has one season left on his contract, so it seems likely St. Louis just rides this out, but Binnington's tenure as the starter is over, and it'll be interesting to see if it's a 1A/1B with Hofer next season, or if Binnington is a true backup.

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