Ramblings – Dobber gives his thoughts on Edmonton’s goalie future, Peyton Krebs, a Benson breakout, and the reason for Marner’s offensive resurgence

Dobber

2026-05-11

A last minute switch has me covering the Ramblings today, so I went to X and BlueSky for your fantasy hockey questions.

The Oilers have two more years to win a Cup or they lose McDavid, and frankly I think if they don't win one next year they'll lose him – they'll trade him, knowing that he won't stay, and try to get some return for him. So next year counts. Also, goalies don't grow on trees. You have eight or 10 legit top goalies that can regularly steal wins. You have another 15 goalies who are good enough to backstop a good team to a Cup, such as Adin Hill did with Vegas (and don't shoot me Detroit fans but I'm putting Chris Osgood here as well). And then you have the goalies that the Oilers have been trotting out. I think Stuart Skinner was very very close to that latter category. They got close with him in net – twice. I think Connor Ingram is in that category too. Bear with me on this. I liked Ingram as a prospect with Nashville, I watched him steal the starting goalie job from my dynasty goalie Karel Vejmelka. Then he had some time off, addressing his OCD. He returned, the Oilers acquired him, and I liked that move. I felt he needed a full year in the AHL and then a full year as a backup in the NHL. No pressure. Ease in. Instead – he was called up too quickly, thrown to the wolves, and was just as bad as the others (maybe marginally better). Whether or not the damage is done with his psyche remains to be seen, but it doesn't look good. I hear that they will re-sign him. I hope they do, but I hope it is as a backup (and buy out Jarry).

So what does that leave for starters?

Of the UFA's this summer, we have Sergei Bobrovsky, Frederik Andersen, Cam Talbot, Matt Murray and David Rittich. They will obviously look closely at Bobrovsky. He's 37 now, and coming off a 0.877 SV%. That being said, he's won Cups and the league average SV% was down to 0.896. So a sub-.900 SV% is no longer horrible. That's tough to wrap your mind around, if you've been playing fantasy hockey for long (10 years ago it was 0.915). Still, that's worse than Ingram – but that's the beauty of re-signing Ingram as a backup. To me, that's Option 2.

Do they try Andersen? I wouldn't. He's hurt way too much – and if he wins a Cup next month, the Canes will probably keep him. I don't think this is an option.

Do they bring back Talbot? I don't see it. He's 39 soon and declining as quickly as Bobrovsky. To me, this is the Last Resort Option.

David Rittich? I think he's been "okay" throughout his career. He's only 33, and could be a 1A option that would work with a hot offense. His max for games played in his career is 48 games, so again they would need to sign and lean on Ingram. Make this Option 3.

Matt Murray? This one is intriguing. Murray has been hammered by injuries, which resulted in declining numbers. However, he had a strong AHL season a year ago, and had five great appearances with Seattle this year. A great No. 3 to sign, but too risky to bring in as your savior. This can go with any option I review here.

Option 1 for me is to go hard after Filip Gustavsson from the Wild. Or Jesper Wallstedt. Whoever is cheaper, which I'm thinking is Gustavsson. The Wild can't sit on two elite goalies. I don't know if the Oilers have enough assets to trade, unless they move Draisaitl or something crazy. But if they can scrape together whatever top picks, prospects and players they can to make this happen, they need to do this. It would take them as close as they can to a Cup.

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ASP, no question. Probably 75% chance of success versus Rinzel's 85% – but ASP's upside is massive. Much, much higher upside and worth the small risk.

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I'm sorry, I love Sid as well, but he has to go. Yes, Matthews seems destined to be injured again, but historically this means he'll be down to 70 or 72 games. Last season's 60 was a fluke. And if he plays 72, even on a bad team, he's getting 85. I don't think Crosby gets there, and Matthews has upside for 110. Crosby doesn't (anymore).

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Krebs is having his Sean Couturier moment. That is to say, he has high-end offensive talent, but was unable to find that touch in the NHL but was nonetheless very good defensively and so he stuck – but then the offense came after five or six years. I think he's locked in as Tage Thompson's linemate, and has 28 points in his last 43 regular season and playoff games. That's about a 54-point pace. But I think he'll improve on even that, much like Couturier did when he finally broke out. I think he can get 60-65 points next season and go one more step further the season after that. However, there is a caveat. It's not a sure thing and not without it's risk. That being – the Sabres will be welcoming back Jiri Kulich from injury, plus Konsta Helenius will be a regular next season (mark it!). If Krebs gets bumped off the Thompson line, which could happen because he is so strong defensively, then he won't get that chance to reach the numbers I floated above. I'm only 60-40 on him hanging onto his spot, which is about as good as you can predict in fantasy hockey!

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I'm sure most of you watched the Habs – Sabres game, so I won't get into the emotional highs that the fans gave and the Habs fed with their timely goals. Nor the rough stuff (cheap stuff?) with the Sabres showing some emotion at the end. I will say that I think Konsta Helenius needs to get into the lineup next game, replacing Sam Carrick. He adds an additional scoring threat, even if he's playing six minutes on a line with Beck Malenstyn and Jordan Greenway.

Since April 6, Josh Doan has 12 points, 10 PIM, 23 Hits and is plus-12 in 14 games. Clutch, just like his father. They got him plus more for JJ Peterka? Genius. He's clicking big time with Zach Benson, and if Benson can finally stay healthy next season – he's breaking out. Mark it.

After five games without a goal and just one of them in nine playoff games Cole Caufield broke the slump. Surprisingly, he's managed just 1.9 SOG/game after having a 3.2 mark in the regular season.

Alex Newhook, who scored twice, would have probably flirted with 50 points for the first time in his career were he not injured. His ice time is up in the playoffs and I think when – I said when – he actually passes 50 points next season, it will catch a lot of people off guard. His career high is 34. Yes, the metrics point to a decline, but he is locked in as Ivan Demidov's linemate. Any decline in 'luck' will be mitigated by Demidov's improved numbers.

After a hat trick in the first game of the playoffs, Juraj Slavkovsky had just one assist in eight games after that. But he scored Sunday night to snap the slump. He had 64 points in his last 62 regular season games

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We're now seeing the impact of William Karlsson's absence and what it did to Mitch Marner's numbers. When he was sidelined, Marner was forced to play center. I think that resulted directly in a decline in his regular season point totals. This is a guy who averages 1.2 points per game for the last seven years, and suddenly he gets 0.99? That's due to playing center instead of wing. You can see in the playoffs now that Karlsson is back and playing center, Marner is racking up the points in the playoffs (leads the NHL). As long as he remains on the wing, he is a 100-point player next season, probably even 110. You can mark that one too.

Another case of 'team too good, needs a goalie' was Vegas, if you asked me a month ago. While on one hand, Carter Hart has far more upside than any of Edmonton's options – on the other hand, Vegas is pretty cutthroat. They'll step on one guy's head to get to another guy who is one percent better. Hart gave up four goals on just 23 shots on Sunday. BUT this was on the heels of four consecutive Quality Starts – and don't forget he ended the season with five straight QS, including a Steal. Sunday night aside, Hart has had himself a great playoff and even better season homestretch.

So far in the playoffs, Hart has zero Steals and two Preventable Losses (when goals saved below expected (i.e. negative GSAx) exceeds the margin of defeat in a loss). The PL is a stat Eric and I had created for Frozen Tools, and it is tracked in the goalie's player page, as well as various reports in the Report Generator.

Besides Marner, Cutter Gauthier also had three assists in the game. Gauthier played with Mason McTavish, who drew back into the lineup after healthy scratches. That line was the most dominant at even strength – 20 chances-for (Corsi) versus two chances-against, when they were on the ice.

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Ivan Barbashev leads the NHL playoffs in Hits with 54. Jeffrey Viel leads the Ducks with 44, including six on Sunday. Here are the playoff Hits leaders:

NameTeamGPHits/60RoadHomeHits
IVAN BARBASHEVVGK1018.2213354
MARCUS FOLIGNOMIN927.8252449
WILLIAM CARRIERCAR834.8173148
KEEGAN KOLESARVGK1025.7252348
JEFFREY VIELANA1021.9251944
COLE SMITHVGK1019.7251742
TRAVIS KONECNYPHI1013.4241741
TIM WASHEANA1018172340
ARBER XHEKAJMTL927.5162339
YAKOV TRENINMIN731.333639
LAWSON CROUSEUTA617.6231538
KAIDEN GUHLEMTL1010.3172037
JOSH ANDERSONMTL1013.9191736
MATTIAS SAMUELSSONBUF911.4112536

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That's it for me. One more note before I go

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