The last few days leading up to and during the NHL Draft were packed with trades and roster moves. With NHL free agency set to open in a couple of days, it feels like a lot of the heavy lifting has been done, although there are still a few notable names who could be on the move or sign new deals.

As I write this, there wasn’t much in the way of breaking news to dive into and that's because the Dobber team has done a fantastic job of covering all of the breaking fantasy hockey news. That said, before I get into my article, there were a few updates in the hockey world so let's get into them before we move on.

Still some final touches to iron out, and nothing can be made official until July 1, but the Flyers and Dan Vladar are on the verge of a five-year deal at a $5.5M AAV. Vladar has largely operated in a tandem or 1A/1B role to this point in his career, so this type of deal signals real belief that he can handle a heavier workload as he saw this past season and stabilize the position long-term with Joseph Woll handling the backup role provided he is healthy.

After being acquired in a trade from the Colorado Avalanche, Jack Drury signed a five-year deal with the Nashville Predators for $4.5M AAV.  After signing the deal, it was more apparent as to why the Avalanche moved on from Drury as he was not going to fit within their cap structure.

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As fantasy managers, value is always the goal, and sometimes the hardest calls are the obvious ones, especially when your early-round picks, the guys you drafted to be anchors, end up letting you down. There were plenty of those this past NHL season. The tricky part is they're often the same players you find yourself circling back to. The pedigree is still there, the skill hasn't disappeared, and in a lot of cases, it's hard to justify walking away from that level of talent twice in a row, so lets start with those first.

Auston Matthews

Matthews finished with just 27 goals and 53 points in 60 games in one of the least productive seasons of his career. The point pace of 72 points over 82 games isn’t terrible but expectations for Matthews are completely different. He’s a perennial Rocket Richard candidate however, his season was impacted by multiple injuries before ultimately ending with a MCL injury courtesy of Radko Gudas that sidelined him for the remainder of the year.  The last two seasons' Matthews has played 67 and 60 games respectively and prior to that he played 81 games in 2023-2024. The last time he played a full 82 game slate was his 40-goal rookie season.  The natural argument of Mitch Marner no longer being a Leaf did affect his overall point totals but the encouraging sign is that the underlying talent didn’t disappear. He still generated 227 shots in 60 games, a pace exceeding 300 shots over a full season.  His health is the primary factor. If Matthews enters next fully recovered, a return to 45-55 goals and 95+ is within reach. The addition of Darren Raddysh will certainly help raise the level of offense within that top-six in Toronto. Players like Matthes and William Nylander should benefit for that.  

Elias Pettersson

Pettersson’s decline has become one of the more puzzling storylines in the NHL. After establishing himself as a franchise cornerstone and producing at a 90 to 100-point pace, he posted just 15 goals in each of the past two seasons while finishing with 45 and 51 points respectively. A 0.69 points-per-game rate simply isn’t good enough for a player expected to drive the offense and lead the Canucks. Vancouver has gone through some turbulence in recent years, including moving on from key pieces such as J.T. Miller and Quinn Hughes as the organization shifted its direction. That level of instability has played a role, but the Canucks still believe Pettersson can return to form. Players with a 102-point season on their resume rarely settle in as 50-point contributors for long. Pettersson is firmly in his prime and if he can regain his confidence and benefit from a more stable environment, 30 goals can once again look like a realistic target rather than an optimistic projection.

Brayden Point

Brayden Point's season was a clear disappointment from his elite production levels, at 50 points in 63 while previously averaging close to 44 goals and 90 points over the previous three years. Even with missed time factored in, the drop in pace was significant, and the most obvious concern came on the goal-scoring side. Point has long been one of the league's most efficient finishers, so seeing him land at just 18 goals stands out as more than simple regression. The biggest driver here is likely health and how it impacted his explosiveness. Even a small dip in mobility changes the way he gets to his spots, which directly affects both his shot volume and quality.  There was also a decline in overall shot generation and his involvement as the primary finisher on sequences. Point has typically thrived as the final touch on plays created by Tampa's top unit, and when his shot attempts dip, his production becomes far more fragile. Combined with a slightly more distributed offense in Tampa Bay, the result was fewer opportunities funneling directly through him.

Sam Reinhart

I covered Sam Reinhart in my recent power-play usage tracking piece, so you know where this is going.

The underlying numbers continue to support his profile as a high-end fantasy option. His shooting efficiency and finishing ability held steady, and there's nothing in his usage or role that suggests a decline in skill or opportunity. He is still a locked into premium deployment alongside Aleksander Barkov at both even strength and on the top power-play unit, which continues to be one of the most valuable fantasy environments in the league. With Florida still driving elite team offense and the addition of Brady Tkachuk further strengthening an already dangerous forward group, the situation around Reinhart arguably gets even better. He remains one of the safer bounce-back candidates on the board and a strong bet to return closer to his recent peak production levels.

Quinton Byfield

It feels like we have been talking about Quinton Byfield forever. You have to think that this is the year he steps into true top-line offensive territory. The context around him is starting to shift in a way that could finally open the door. Anze Kopitar is now retired, Los Angeles is clearly moving into a new era, and the roster construction reflects that direction. The long-term extension for Brandt Clarke is another signal that the Kings are committing to a younger core and reshaping their identity around it. On top of that, the addition of Artemi Panarin changes the dynamic entirely, giving LA a high-end offensive driver who could elevate everyone around him. For Byfield, it feels as if a top-line role is within reach, and there's a clear path to significant power-play time in a more offensively tilted deployment.  

J.T. Miller

J.T. Miller finished the season with just 53 points and a minus-30 rating, a steep drop for a player who had essentially established himself as an 80–100-point staple in recent years. Even in a down year, he remained heavily involved offensively and continued to log heavy minutes, but the production simply didn't match his usual standard. A healthier Rangers lineup alone should help stabilize the environment, and some natural positive regression feels likely given his track record. The added wrinkle is the arrival of Pavel Dorofeyev, a pure shooter who thrives off finishing looks rather than creating them. That type of player fits well with Miller's game, as he's still the Rangers' most reliable high-end distributor and has historically driven offence through playmaking and setup work. If Miller can rediscover even part of the form he showed a couple of seasons ago, both he and Dorofeyev could benefit significantly. However, it also creates a bit of a dependency. If Miller's form from last season carries over, it becomes much harder for Dorofeyev to consistently reach those high-end scoring totals he flashed in Vegas.

Nazem Kadri

Over the past couple of seasons before his return to Colorado, Nazem Kadri held his own in Calgary, producing in a far less dynamic offensive environment. That said, there was still a noticeable dip in his overall point totals year over year, reflecting both team context and a reduced level of elite supporting talent around him. Now back in Colorado, the picture looks a lot more favorable. Valeri Nichushkin is no longer in the mix and the Avalanche's top-six is looking less crowded, which opens up a clearer path for Kadri to re-establish a meaningful offensive role. At minimum, he should be locked into a top-six spot, with a realistic chance of seeing top-line usage depending on how the combinations shake out. Add in first power-play exposure, and the opportunity set is significantly stronger. Given the environment shift alone, it's reasonable to expect an uptick in production. He doesn't need to reinvent his game; he just needs the usage that naturally comes with a more offensively driven roster.

Thanks for reading! See you next week! For more fantasy hockey content and analysis, follow me on X @Punters_hockey. If you have any questions about your team or a trade? My DMs are always open, happy to help!