The 2026-27 Fantasy Guide is now available! Projections, writeups on each team, and much more! Get yours at the Dobber Sports store.

One of the areas that I contributed to in the guide was the contract year sections. That involved examining each team's expiring contracts (RFA and UFA) and what they could mean for both the player and the team. Researching this information provided me with a glimpse into which top players could end up as free agents next summer.

A year ago, the projected 2025 UFA class looked stacked — the kind of group that could produce a chaotic offseason if even one or two big names slipped through without extensions. Instead, almost every major player re‑signed early, leaving Alex Tuch as the unexpected headliner of free agency.

Expect a similar pattern this time around. Most of the notable pending UFAs are central enough to their teams that extensions feel more likely than not. And if a club isn't planning to contend, the smart play is to trade the player ahead of the deadline and maximize the return rather than risk losing them for nothing. Another factor helping the cause of players re-signing with their current teams is the league's salary cap ceiling, which is expected to rise from $104 million in 2026‑27 to $113.5 million in 2027‑28.

To frame the landscape, I'll use a scale ranging from low to high, with gradations in between, to gauge each player's likelihood of re‑signing with their current team.

Nikita Kucherov

Chances of extending: moderate to high

Tampa Bay will need to do some cap maneuvering to get this done, but Kucherov is too important to what they are doing. I doubt he will slip through the cracks the way Steven Stamkos did. The Lightning's other core forwards (Brayden Point, Jake Guentzel, Brandon Hagel, Anthony Cirelli) are all signed to at least four more seasons, so that could be how GM Julien BriseBois views their window and signs Kucherov accordingly.

Jason Robertson

Chances of extending: moderate

As I mentioned here, I think Robertson has a decent chance of re-signing with the Stars. Tyler Seguin's $9.85 million cap hit comes off the books at the end of the season, while the league's salary cap is expected to rise (which helps everyone here). As well, Robertson reportedly turned down a more lucrative offer in a sign-and-trade from Seattle to take a $3 million hometown discount from Dallas this coming season. But the one-year contract leaves some doubt.

Alex DeBrincat

Chances of extending: low to moderate

If a Dylan Larkin trade is completed and the Red Wings don't get an equivalent player in return, then they could be on a clear path toward missing the playoffs. I'm not sure that they're a playoff team even now. If the playoffs are not in their future, it would make sense for the Wings to see what they can get for DeBrincat. However, if Larkin rescinds his trade request and the Wings move forward with a core that includes Moritz Seider and Lucas Raymond, signing DeBrincat will become more of a priority. A lot of uncertainty here, which is only compounded by the fact that the Red Wings are looking for a new general manager.

Cale Makar

Chances of extending: high

Colorado's competitive window is always squeezed by the cap, but the Avalanche have made one thing clear: Cale Makar isn't going anywhere. Joe Sakic has said outright that Makar will finish his career in Colorado, and that's a promise I'm inclined to believe.

Quinn Hughes

Chances of extending: moderate to high

Even if Minnesota wasn't his first choice, Hughes seems to like what is happening there. Wild GM Bill Guerin and Hughes are expected to meet soon to discuss a contract extension. According to Michael Russo of The Athletic, the Wild want to sign Hughes long-term – between five to eight years. I think Hughes signs more on the short-term side with the Wild, though. If it's a three-year deal, then he and brother Jack Hughes can hit unrestricted free agency together in 2030. Hughes extending with Minnesota could mean that they have to move on from Ryan Hartman and Jared Spurgeon, also UFAs next summer.

Sidney Crosby

Chances of extending: moderate to high

Since Crosby is almost 40, retirement can't be ruled out. Yet as long as he's productive, he will want to continue playing for the Penguins. Look for a one-year deal with another $8.7 million cap hit, which will be easy to plan for in salary cap leagues. If that seems too low by today's standards, keep in mind that Alex Ovechkin just signed a one-year deal worth $4.25 million to help the Capitals stay competitive.

Ryan O'Reilly

Chances of extending: moderate

This might depend on Nashville's situation. The Predators are a bubble playoff team at best while shifting toward a younger core, which means that they could be a seller at the deadline again. Yet the bottom-six acquisitions the Preds made this offseason could make them more competitive.

Mark Stone

Chances of extending: moderate to high

The impatient Golden Knights can move on from players quickly, and another major injury or two could be the tipping point for Stone. Yet he is still their captain, and he is still a highly productive player when healthy. Jack Eichel took a bit less to stay in Vegas, so Stone could adopt a similar philosophy. Between injury risk and age (34), Stone would most likely sign a short-term deal.

Drake Batherson

Chances of extending: moderate

The latest on this is that according to Bruce Garrioch of the Ottawa Citizen, the Senators and Batherson are not close on an agreement. The report also mentions that Batherson could receive $10-$11 million per year on the open market. That is more than any current Sens player, including Tim Stutzle and Jake Sanderson, but the market has shifted and salaries are increasing. The loss of Brady Tkachuk could hurt the Senators' playoff chances, but Batherson is an important core piece. Batherson could fetch a great return if Ottawa's season goes sideways and they become a seller.

Erik Karlsson

Chances of extending: low to moderate

Karlsson received a salary of over $10 million long before it will become common for a player to earn that much. He is certainly still productive, and more importantly he has remained injury-free. Yet I'm not sure he fits the Penguins' long-term plan, which was thought to be a rebuild but was delayed by some success last season. With an aged core, the Pens will need to shift to the future sooner rather than later. One big step toward that would be receiving assets from a Karlsson trade this season. Now 36, Karlsson would be a short-term signing wherever he goes.

Evgeni Malkin

Chances of extending: moderate

Last summer, the Penguins stated that 2025-26 would be Malkin's final season in Pittsburgh. Yet on the way to fading out, things went much better than expected and Malkin was suddenly above a point per game again. It wasn't without injury, though, as Malkin played only 56 games. After signing a one-year extension, Malkin is probably in a "wait and see until the end of the season" situation. Malkin has played for only one team, and he may be more inclined to retire if the Penguins decide to move on from him.

Drew Doughty

Chances of extending: low to moderate

Kings GM Ken Holland has stated that Doughty will not receive a contract extension this summer. Instead, the plan is for Doughty to play the season and then make a decision at the end of the season. Doughty is a shadow of the player he once was offensively, registering just 23 points in 72 games in 2025-26. Holland may show Doughty loyalty to the only organization he has played for, while Holland also seems partial to older defensemen. Despite the lack of extension talks this summer, don't rule out Doughty re-signing with the Kings. But they could just as well decide to move on.

Jordan Binnington

Chances of extending: low

With Joel Hofer seemingly taking over as the No. 1 starter, Binnington has been the subject of trade rumors. Unless a team experiences a sudden injury, it seems unlikely Binnington is moved this offseason, although a trade during the season could happen. He's probably not a pure backup this season, as he could appear in at least 40 games this season. His overall numbers have declined since his rookie season, and the Blues are in the midst of shifting to a younger core.

Carter Hart

Chances of extending: moderate

Think the Golden Knights regret signing Adin Hill to a long-term deal? Hart was an unknown after returning from the Canada World Junior trial, but he backstopped Vegas to the Stanley Cup Final. The Golden Knights may need to move a player or two to fit Hart in, but the benefit of his current short-term deal is that they can walk away if his 2026-27 performance happens to be below expectations.

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