Today's focus will be on two Atlantic division line combinations that significantly outperformed their baseline. All six of these players enjoyed a disproportionate level of success due to elevated luck-based metrics.

We start in Boston with Pavel Zacha, who set personal highs of 30 goals, 65 points, 0.83 points per game, and 64% of power play time on ice. He got better as the season progressed, scoring 28 points in 24 games following the Olympics. However, his scoring surge was constructed on the back of an astonishing 22.9% shooting percentage, the fourth highest in the league. If we use his career average of 13.1% to correct his goal totals, his 30 goals would drop to 17.16 goals, and his points per game would fall from 0.83 to 0.67, which is more in line with his personal production trend. Joining Zacha on the first power play unit were Elias Lindholm, David Pastrnak, Morgan Geekie, and Charlie McAvoy. There could be shuffling of those names with JJ Peterka joining the forward group and James Hagens knocking on the door. Zacha's spot could be in jeopardy, but one positive clue we can deduce is that during the times when Viktor Arvidsson joined the top power play, it was Elias Lindholm that got dropped, not Zacha.

Zacha's most common line mates – Viktor Arvidsson (now in Detroit) and Casey Mittlestadt – both showcased high personal shooting percentages as well. This line was almost even in shots for percentage (266 shots for vs 267 shots against) but miraculously pulled out a +22 goal differential (44 goals for vs 22 goals against). All three of these players are expected to come down to earth in varying degrees. Arvidsson might be able to lay claim to the opening on the Red Wings' power play in light of Patrick Kane's departure to Chicago. The one thing Arvidsson does do at an elite level is pump up the shot volume as he finished 13^th in the league by shots/60 minutes. At five on five, only Nikita Kucherov (3.64) and Nathan Mackinnon (3.32) finished with a higher points/60 than Arvidsson (3.03), a huge jump from the 1.36 points/60 he had the year before.

Mittlestadt's ice time fell from 17:04 to 15:10, yet his points per game rose from 0.49 to 0.59. He too enjoyed a high shooting percentage (18.8%), 6% higher than his career average of 12.8%. Drafted eighth overall in 2017, his career high in a full season is 0.72 points per game, which he accomplished in 2022-23 with the Buffalo Sabres. At 27 years old, he is what he is, and the breakout hopes that scouts had a few years ago, have dampened considerably.

At five on five, Boston had the third highest goals scored above expected (+22.09) and the best goals allowed above expected (-29.25). Combining the two stats above, the Bruins had a +51.34 goal differential above expected, which was easily tops in the league. It would not be surprising to see the Bruins fall towards the bottom of the Atlantic division, as it will be difficult to reproduce their 100-point season, which was based on an unsustainable goal differential.

Another Atlantic team with gaudy goal totals was the Montreal Canadiens who finished sixth in the league in goals scored (283). The Habs led the league in shooting percentage at five on five (11.27%).

The leading culprits were the trio of Ivan Demidov (14.52%), Alex Newhook (17.26%), and Oliver Kapanen (14.09%) who each finished in the top five in the NHL in on-ice shooting percentage at five on five amongst players who played at least 300 minutes (per Natural Stat Trick).

Demidov's own shooting percentage was high (15%) as was his PDO (1042). His natural progression may help offset the projected analytics regression that is previewed. He was recently seen practicing alongside Logan Cooley at the Habs' practice facility in Brossard.

Due to a fractured ankle, Alex Newhook only played 42 games. More than half of his time on ice this season at five on five was spent with Kapanen and Demidov. They were caved in as a line outshot 151 to 105 (shots for percentage of 41.0%), yet they were a plus six in the goal differential department, outscoring the opponent 20 to 14, because of that elevated conversion rate.

Newhook's advanced stats also scream regression:

Shooting percentage of 21.3% (7.3% higher than his career average)
PDO of 1076
The aforementioned five on five on ice shooting percentage of 17.26%

In the playoffs, Newhook continued his lucky shooting streak, notching seven goals on 33 shots (21.2%). His real-life value also got a boost with stunning playoff heroics; he scored the game-winning goal in the only two game sevens in the playoffs. He is someone to avoid or at least deemphasize if you are part of a draft in deeper leagues. Two seasons ago, Newhook actually had a higher points per game (0.62) than this past year (0.60). That 2023-24 season, his first with Montreal, was also marked by an elevated shooting percentage, increased secondary assist ratio, as well as a lot more power play time.

If Kent Hughes is successful in his aggressive search for a top six forward, it will likely push a player like Newhook or Kapanen lower down on the depth chart. Kapanen was already healthy scratched for 12 of 19 playoff games and failed to garner a point in the seven games he did play. In the regular season, Kapanen's points per 60 at 5v5 (1.96) placed him in the top 100 in the league, slightly behind Sebastian Aho, John Tavares, and Filip Forsberg (all at 1.98). The best-case scenario for Kapanen is that the Canadiens' brass strikes out on a top six addition this summer, and he starts on the second line centering Demidov. Even then, he would have to produce right off the hop, otherwise coach Marty St. Louis will not hesitate to demote him. All signs point to Michael Hage joining the Habs' top six in 2027 after his University of Michigan season comes to an end. At the IIHF World Juniors, Cole Reschny would replace Hage at the faceoff dot because of Hage's inability to regularly win faceoffs. If Kapanen is to be bumped from the 2C spot, this is an area that Hage needs to work on in his last year of NCAA hockey.

Player usage data from Frozen Tools. Salary information from capwages.com. Advanced stats from moneypuck.com.

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