Ramblings: Bubble Keeper Week and Michkov vs. Jarvis, Raddysh vs. Thompson, Marchand vs. Stamkos, and Marner vs. Holloway – August 28

Michael Clifford

2026-08-28

Bubble Keeper Week continues here at Dobber Hockey. We have been reviewing those end-of-the-roster decisions that fantasy manager agonize over when making their keeper decisions. On Tuesday, my Ramblings covered choices between Jason Robertson and Rasmus Dahlin, Jordan Kyrou and Logan Stankoven, and Lucas Raymond vs. John Carlson. Yesterday's Ramblings went over Peyton Krebs vs. Bobby Brink, Kiefer Sherwood vs. a pair of Buffalo Sabres wingers, Bryan Rust vs. Marco Rossi, and Anton Frondell vs. Jesper Wallstedt.

Today, we head back to the Dobber Forums for more keeper queries.

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Our first question comes from Forum user 'Smurf54' and is from a very stacked roster in a 12-team league:

There are 15 keeper slots. These are the automatic keepers:

  1. Auston Matthews
  2. Jack Eichel
  3. Jack Hughes
  4. Kirill Kaprizov
  5. Matthew Tkachuk
  6. Jason Robertson
  7. Matt Boldy
  8. Ivan Demidov
  9. Rasmus Dahlin
  10. Adam Fox
  11. Igor Shesterkin
  12. Ilya Sorokin

This gives us three slots to fill. In this format, each of centre, left wing, and right wing are already covered by keepers. Also, either eight or nine forwards can start on a given night, and eight are kept. For me, that means the first keeper is Cole Hutson. With so many elite forwards already on the roster, getting a third defenceman is much more important than a ninth forward, and it isn't as if Hutson is a slouch. The Washington Capitals generally have their secondary PP defenceman skate over 50% of the PPTOI, so even if Hutson is behind Jakob Chychrun on the PP depth chart, he is still looking at upwards of 200 PP minutes this season. On a team that should be as good offensively as the Caps should be, Hutson has immediate 50-point upside, and that's valuable as a third defenceman. It leaves us with Matvei Michkov, Seth Jarvis, and Beckett Sennecke, and one of them has to be dropped.

Pro-rated to 84 games apiece, the Dobber Fantasy Guide has Jarvis projected for 72 points, Sennecke for 70, and Michkov for 69. If we assume they have similar production this year, it comes down to peripherals, and that pushes me to Sennecke. Prior to Sennecke in 2025-26, the last rookie to post 60 points, 60 PIMs, and 190 shots in a season was Evgeni Malkin in 2006-07 (per NHL.com). Sennecke also had 97 hits, which is 35 more than Michkov has had in his two seasons combined (62). I am not saying that Sennecke is a Malkin-type winger, but progression from this high of a starting point will make Sennecke one of the most valuable multi-cat wingers in fantasy very soon.  

It is now Michkov and Jarvis left, and I would take Michkov. If Jarvis were healthy, which he's not because a shoulder surgery will cause him to miss anywhere from 1-3 months of the season, then it would be a real discussion. The injury to Jarvis means Michkov should have more fantasy value this year, so we are looking at 2027-28 and beyond, which makes me favour Michkov more. So, my final answer is keeping the 12 listed above plus Hutson, Sennecke, and Michkov. If you want Jarvis, given his injury, you'll probably be able to draft him in the first round anyway.

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The next keeper question is from user 'rooneypoo' and it has quite a bit of detail:

To quickly sum the highlights:

Out of the gate, this type of format hurts Fox. He doesn't shoot much, has never reached 50 hits, and his only real peripheral value comes from blocks, which aren't counted. Both the Dobber Fantasy Guide and my personal projections have Fox out-producing Raddysh, but Raddysh will put up far more shots and will probably double his hits. Of the two defencemen, I lean Raddysh over Fox.

Then we get to the forwards. With Necas and Kucherov being kept, Thompson would have to play centre (or used in the utility) when all three are playing on the same night. Precluding positions, the only real advantage Hagel has over Thompson is in penalty minutes; goals, assists, hits, power-play points, and shots are all close or tip heavily to Thompson's favour. Hagel has never had a season with at least 3.0 shots per game, 70 hits, or 15 power-play points – Thompson has reached each of those marks in each of the last three years. Between the two forwards, it's Thompson.

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There is a good case for keeping Vejmelka. He is on a likely playoff team and will get a heavy starting workload. If this were a 14-team league, I would probably keep him, but in a 10-team league, a similarly valued goalie can probably be drafted in the first few rounds. That is not true of Thompson; guys like Dylan Guenther or Cutter Gauthier will not be on the board. 

To me, this comes down to Raddysh or Thompson. If a 2-for-1 trade can be made for an elite skater, I would do that. I lean Thompson just for a bit of security – we know what we're getting from him. There are more question marks around Raddysh just because of Thompson's longer track record and Raddysh changing teams. My answer is Tage, but either he or Raddysh are fine. 

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Our third question is from Forum user 'VicGeneral' and it's my favourite type of question – it isn't about making a good choice, but a least-bad choice in a points-only league:

This is a team looking towards a rebuild and trying to recoup trade value during the season. If that's the case, I am excluding Denver Barkey (he won't have much) and Alex Ovechkin (age and diminished role). I do like Tyler Bertuzzi and he should be considered, but he won't have Connor Bedard for at least a month and there's no telling what will happen after that.

Brad Marchand had a great season when he was healthy, but he did that shooting nearly 20% (prior three-year average of 12.5%) with 20 power-play points in 52 games. The Dobber Fantasy Guide has Marchand on the second PP unit, I think he'll be on the second PP unit, and that means we should expect 10-15 PPPs rather than 25(ish). Even on what should be a great Florida Panthers team, Marchand's upside is 70 points. That is his upside, not the expectation.

Steven Stamkos had a great year last year, but shot 20.4%, a career-high. He has typically been around 15% in his later years, and that would cost him about 11 goals, and would have made him a 55-point player in 2025-26. His first year with Nashville saw him post 53 points. If he can't maintain his high shooting percentage, I would not expect more than 60 points from him.

The issue is we found out that Marchand had offseason surgery and the latest update from George Richards at Florida Hockey Now makes it seem like he'll miss the start of the season. We just saw last year how Florida very much took its time to bring back injured players because they are focused on a Stanley Cup, not a great regular season. Also, even in a campaign where Florida saw so many significant injuries to so many forwards, Marchand skated 17:44 per game, his lowest in over a decade. Considering Marchand's (likely) games missed, reduced role, and move to the second PP unit, I lean Stamkos over Marchand here.  

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Our final query of the day comes from user 'Kessel's Hotdogs!!!', which is a fantastic name:

It is a 10-team multi-cat league with 2 C, 2 RW, 2 LW, 4 D, and 2G on the starting roster. They are keeping Connor Bedard (C), Evan Bouchard (D), and Igor Shesterkin (G). It leaves us with three forwards and two defencemen to pick from.

One automatic keeper is Dylan Guenther. His 82-game averages over the last two years are 37 goals, 36 assists, 245 shots, 66 hits, 39 blocks, and 29 PPPs. That is pretty good multi-cat coverage from a guy who just turned 23 years old in April and entering his prime. He is also multi-wing eligible on Yahoo.

The two defencemen I'm keeping are Jake Sanderson and Jackson LaCombe. The third potential keeper is Noah Dobson, but he's on a team with Lane Hutson, so he's shut out of the top PP role. Sanderson is basically Dobson but with a top PP role, so Sanderson is the choice there. Then it comes to LaCombe and Dobson, and LaCombe is staring down 25 minutes a game with top PP time. Even if Dobson is a better peripheral producer on a per-minute basis, the volume from LaCombe will at least make it close, and he has a higher point production upside. Again, the two defence choices are Sanderson and LaCombe.

This is where the roster composition matters. Every player kept so far is 25 years or younger (LaCombe turns 26 in January). Additionally, Bedard is going to miss at least a month and there are no truly super-elite keeper forwards – there are no Nathan MacKinnon, Nikita Kucherov, or Macklin Celebrini-types here. Maybe this fantasy roster will contend, but in a 10-team league, I suspect it won't. I would be looking beyond this season.

For that reason, my next keeper is Carlsson. He should have similar production to Dylan Larkin (barring a Larkin trade to a high-end destination) and is eight years younger. Carlsson lacks blocks and hits but should more than make up for it elsewhere and has 100-point potential down the road.

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Then it's down to Marner, Guentzel and Holloway. My first instinct is to seek out a trade. Try to make a 2-for-1 including two of those guys for a truly elite player on the younger side. Maybe you can get Celebrini for Marner and Guentzel, and perhaps settle for someone like Jack Hughes or Matt Boldy.

I would lean Marner over Guentzel because Marner is three years younger. In a couple of years when this fantasy roster is truly ready to contend, I have more faith in Marner still being a point-per-game player.

I do think there's an argument for Holloway. If he can stay healthy, he should push for 30 goals, 70 points, 220 shots, 180 hits, and 60 blocks. That is great multi-cat coverage, and his age (25 in September) lines up better with the rest of the roster. Also, none of the other keepers are physical players, and keeping Marner over Holloway means chasing hits all season long.

My final answer is to keep Marner because you can probably draft Holloway in the first couple of rounds whereas Marner might be the first skater taken in the draft. Then, if your team isn't contending at the mid-point of the season, you can trade Marner (and whatever else) for a great keeper.

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