Eastern Edge: Kreider’s Upside in Montreal; Roles for Hedman and Mikheyev in Tampa Bay, and More
Khurram Sher
2026-09-22
Over the past few years, the Anaheim Ducks have been populating the Eastern Conference with their former players: Jamie Drysdale, Trevor Zegras, Olen Zellweger, John Gibson, John Carlson (more on him later), Radko Gudas, and now Chris Kreider. The 35-year-old Kreider becomes the oldest player on the Montreal Canadiens, and will get paid a base salary of $850k, a signing bonus of $1.3 million, a performance bonus of $2 million for playing in ten games. If he scores between 20-29 goals, he gets an additional $500k. The total would bring his likely compensation to $4.65 million. Since it is an age 35 and over contract, the bonus structures allows the Canadiens, if needed, to pay out the bonuses next year when the cap is higher. The Kreider contract that was terminated, and the one he just inked, both involved Jeff Gorton on the management side. Kreider received a $1 million signing bonus on July 1st from Anaheim, he then got a signing bonus of $1.3 million from Montreal on September 12th, and health permitting, game ten against Chicago on October 23 will trigger another $2 million bonus. This brings the total to $4.3 million over a span of three months and three weeks. Nothing compared to the $19.95 million singing bonus that Kreider's former teammate Leo Carlsson received on July 3rd, but not bad for the 35-year-old winger who, barring injury, should hit 1000 career games on December 31st in Tampa Bay.
One of the reasons why Kreider's production is difficult to project is because of the sharp volatility in his previous campaigns. Over the last six seasons his points per game has fluctuated drastically: 0.60, 0.95, 0.68, 0.91, 0.44, and 0.67 last year. Even in-season, his points per game oscillated in each quarter: 0.88, 0.35, 0.89, and 0.58 to end the season. He is one of the rare players that regularly contributes more goals than assists, with 55% of his career points coming from goals. Kreider's shots/game are on a downwards trend, falling from 3.00 to 2.22 to 1.85 last year in Anaheim. On the Canadiens, he joins American teammates Cole Caufield and Lane Hutson who, like him, were left off the Olympic roster. It will be difficult to join them on the top power play, as it would mean bumping net front presence Juraj Slafkovsky onto the second power play unit. Which means for the first time in 11 years, Kreider may not get more than 50% of his team's power play time. If that holds true, his 17 power play points will fall into the single digits. Noah Dobson's seven power play points were the highest of any player on the second unit in Montreal. Caufield and Kreider both play left wing, so that meant Kreider would slot in on the second line with Ivan Demidov, however in training camp and in their first pre-season split squad game against the Toronto Maple Leafs, Kreider was on the top line with Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield. Being a left shot, Kreider could score even more goals playing his off wing. This would open up a better angle on shots and facilitate one timers. It would be reasonable to project a decrease in power play production but an increase in even strength totals.
Other than last year where his hits/game dropped to 0.92, Kreider has been above one hit/game for his entire career. Earlier in his career, he was regularly above two hits/game. In Anaheim, blocks per game fell to an 11-year low (0.27).
A quick peak at his goals chart reveals the expected. A vast majority of his goals come from in and around the crease. Since 2015-16, Kreider leads the league in total goals (102) from tip-ins (91) and deflections (11) combined.
We pivot to another 35-year-old veteran taken in the first round of the 2009 NHL Draft, Victor Hedman. Hedman was quoted as saying: "Spent eight weeks in Sweden, got back here August 1, and it’s been a great summer. There's nothing nagging me body-wise or anything like that so I've been able to push the body to the limit and be as in good of shape as possible."
Hedman only scored one goal on 50 shots last campaign. That 2.0% shooting percentage is well below his normal rate of 7.0%. He is back after taking time off last season for mental health reasons. The locks for the Tampa Bay Lightning power play include Nikita Kucherov, Brayden Point, and Jake Guentzel, leaving two spots open for John Carlson, Victor Hedman, or Brandon Hagel. So far in training camp it has been Hedman who is on the outside looking in. As the season progresses it is possible that Carlson, a right shot, and Hedman, a left shot, are used simultaneously on the top unit. In the past, Jon Cooper opted to use either Hedman or Mikhail Sergachev on PP1, but in that case, both defensemen were lefties. Hedman is going late in drafts at an ADP of 90 on Yahoo and 110 on Fantrax. If he is to reclaim a spot on the first power play unit, he could be a sneaky add with the potential of producing like a top ten fantasy defenseman. The even strength partner for Hedman in training camp has been Maxwell Crozier, while John Carlson was lining up with J.J. Moser.
John Carlson, Hedman's new teammate, only had 52.3% of his team's power play time last season, which was split between the Washington Capitals and the Anaheim Ducks. After two full seasons in Washington with points per game at 0.63 and 0.65, Carlson levelled up last year scoring 46 points in 55 games as a Capital (0.836 ppg), and 14 points in 16 games as a Duck (0.875 ppg). This was not related to the man advantage where he only registered 14 power play points, same totals as the year before. In fact, no defenseman had a lower percentage of their team's power play time (52.3%) with a higher points per game (0.85) than Carlson. This indicates that in his inaugural year as a member of the Lightning, we should see the opposite of what Kreider is expected to do; namely a drop in even strength points for Carlson with a rise in power play points if he remains a staple on the top power play. Carlson's even strength points per game was 0.39 (2023-24) and 0.44 (2024-25), before boosting up to 0.65 (2025-26). Darren Raddysh, in comparison had 44 even strength points in 73 games (0.60 ppg) last year at the same RD1 position on the top pairing for the Lightning.
In the forward group, it is Omsk native Ilya Mikheyev who has been getting time on the top line with Nikita Kucherov and Braden Point. He signed a 4-year contract with Tampa Bay this summer with an AAV of $3.85 million. Mikheyev's special teams contribution will be on the penalty kill, but if everything goes right, he could push for 55+ points with even strength exposure to Kucherov.
Player data from Frozen Tools. Advanced stats from Money Puck.
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