Some very good news for Chicago Blackhawks fans and fantasy managers alike as Connor Bedard was skating on the top line and top power-play unit for Chicago's practice on Monday, per Charlie Roumeliotis. His top line included Roman Kantserov and Patrick Kane, both of whom were on the top PP unit as well. Anton Frondell was moved to the second PP unit.

This indicates that Bedard's return is imminent, which is far ahead of his original timeline of an early return being sometime in November. We will await official confirmation but even if Bedard doesn't play on Tuesday night when they host the Pittsburgh Penguins, it seems as if the return will be very soon.  

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An unfortunate update on Dallas Stars forward Matt Duchene:

#TexasHockey announces Matt Duchene underwent core muscle surgery and will miss three months.

— Frank Seravalli (@frank_seravalli) October 12, 2026

Duchene had yet to play this season and missed 25 games last year. If he returns in three months' time, that is sometime in the middle of January. For now, Sam Steel and Jamie Benn are getting regular turns in the top-6, but the player I'm keeping an eye on is Justin Hryckowian.

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The Buffalo Sabres took a 5-3 win at home against Florida on Monday, but the bigger news was defenceman Rasmus Dahlin leaving the game with an upper-body injury during the second period, and not returning. There is no word on the severity of the injury yet, but Heather Engel reports he is day-to-day and will not play on Tuesday.

Florida goalie Jacob Markstrom also left the game with an injury at the end of the first period.

Dahlin scored once (PP) on four shots before leaving the game, adding a block to go with it. Noah Ostlund also scored a PP goal, with solo tallies from Josh Doan and Ryan McLeod as well. Tage Thompson posted a goal, an assist (PP), a block, and two hits.

Colten Ellis got the start for the Sabres but was pulled halfway through the second period. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen took over in net and got the win.

Sam Reinhart scored two PP goals and Anton Lundell marked his first tally of the season in the loss. Defenceman Seth Jones posted two assists (both PP) with four shots and two hits.

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Tim Stutzle kept his great run to start the season going as the Ottawa Senators went into New Jersey and downed the Devils 4-1. Stützle managed a goal, an assist (PP), three blocks, and a hit for a great fantasy night. He now has five goals and five assists in six games to start the season.

Tyler Kleven, Shane Pinto, and Stephen Halliday (PP) had the other tallies. Goaltender Linus Ullmark was stellar yet again, stopping 29 of 30 shots for his league-leading fifth win. He has allowed just six goals in five starts this season.

Arseny Gritsyuk scored the lone Devils goal, and Nico Daws allowed three pucks past him on 19 shots faced in the loss.

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Matt Boldy, Joel Eriksson Ek, Maxim Shabanov (PP), and Danila Yurov all scored in Minnesota's 4-2 win over Vegas on Monday night. Eriksson Ek finished with three shots, a block, and three hits for a very good multi-cat night. That was his first goal of the year, and into an empty net, so it's hopefully the kickstart he needs for more production.

Quinn Hughes had a pair of helpers in the win, one coming on the PP, to go with two shots and a block. He is up to nine points in six games on the season.

Jesper Wallstedt held the Golden Knights to two goals on 23 shots for his fourth win of the campaign. He sits with a .933 save percentage and 1.82 GAA, and if he keeps playing like this, Filip Gustavsson will not be splitting starts when he returns from his hip surgery rehab.

William Karlsson and Rasmus Andersson scored the goals for Vegas. Andersson totaled four shots, a block, and a hit in a solid multi-cat effort.

Carter Hart allowed three goals on 27 shots in a losing effort.

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Over a couple of Ramblings last week, I reviewed early shot trends among specific forwards and defencemen. The first Ramblings covered Jackson Blake, Bobby McMann, Will Cuylle, and Adam Jiříček, and the second Ramblings went over Emil Heineman, Owen Tippett, and Zayne Parekh. Today, I want to finish off the trilogy and do one more update on early shot trends.

This analysis is done using 'Market Share'. That term is simply the percentage of a team's shots a particular player takes when he's on the ice. So, if the Colorado Avalanche have taken 100 shots with Cale Makar on the ice, and he took 20 of those 100 shots, his market share is 20%. Among forwards, elite Market Share percentages are around 30-35% with high-volume guys over 25%, and among defencemen the elite Market Share rates are in the 22-25% range and high-volume guys are over 20%.

For today, we will be going over even-strength minutes only (including empty net situations). Data is scraped from NHL play-by-play. We are using all shot attempts, so goals, shots missed, shots on net, and shots blocked. All data as of the morning of Monday, October 12^th.

Additional data from Natural Stat Trick or Frozen Tools.

Tage Thompson (Buffalo Sabres)

Tage is typically a high-volume shooter anyway, landing around 29-31% of the Market Share in each of his last three seasons, but starting this season at 41.6% is another level entirely. He won't stay this high all year, but it's very possible that this start portends an even higher volume season than normal. Considering he's top-10 by shot rate per minute across the last two years, that he's second in the league so far this season is a very good sign for his offence.

The only concern right now is that Tage's volume on the power play is down a fair bit from where he normally is (around 27%). That his seven shot attempts on the PP have turned into six SOG has artificially inflates his PPSOG rate so we want to see him shoot more on the man advantage.

Kent Johnson and Matthew Knies (Columbus Blue Jackets)

It has been a solid start for Johnson with two goals and three points in four games. Back in 2024-25 when he had his breakout with 24 goals and 57 points in 68 games, Johnson managed an even-strength Market Share of 22.1%. That he's begun this season around 29% tells us his solid start isn't just a function of a high shooting percentage (though that is part of it), but that Johnson is genuinely getting more involved offensively, and that's a good sign as he looks to rebound from a down 2025-26 campaign.

On the flipside, Knies is Johnson's line mate and Johnson shooting so much is taking some volume away from Knies. Having line mates that shoot was the norm for Knies in Toronto, but his 11.6% Market Share pales in comparison to his 18.3% over his last two years with the Maple Leafs. One key difference is he's skating about 45% of his even-strength time with Zach Werenski, and though Werenski's shot volume isn't where it normally is, once he starts shooting more, it will cut into Knies' ability to juice his own shot rate. This will be an interesting balance to follow as the Jackets accumulate more games played.

Alex DeBrincat and Michael Brandsegg-Nygård (Detroit Red Wings)

The Red Wings have just 10 goals in five games, but it should be said that their second-line duo of DeBrincat and Brandsegg-Nygård are thriving offensively. Both have even-strength Market Shares over 30%, and that's nothing new for DeBrincat (he was over 30% across the previous two seasons), but Brandsegg-Nygård being right there beside him doing the same is a very good early sign.

So far this season, the Red Wings are generating 63 shot attempts per 60 minutes with Brandsegg-Nygård on the ice, which leads the team. They have only played five games, so we'll see where this stands after 25 games, but this is very encouraging early on for a team that doesn't have a lot of positive stories. 

Filip Forsberg (Nashville Predators)

With no goals in five games, fantasy managers may be having some consternation around Forsberg's early-season production. However, his even-strength Market Share is just under 32%, right in line with his 31.9% over his previous two seasons. Aside from having zero goals, his big problem is just 8/24 shot attempts have turned into shots on goal, a far cry from the 44.6% in those prior two years. Once he starts landing more shots on target, and that shooting percentage turns around, he will start filling the net.

The real issue is that Nashville is generating just 52.7 shot attempts per 60 minutes with him on the ice at 5-on-5. That number was at least 59 per 60 minutes each season since 2014. He is shooting as much as ever, but if Nashville doesn't raise its volume, he could be in for a down year that doesn't necessarily reflect his play, but the play of his teammates. This is something to monitor, anyway.

Jimmy Snuggerud and Mason McTavish (St. Louis Blues)

If St. Louis wants to return to the postseason, they need production from young forwards like Snuggerud and McTavish. These two have scored five goals in five games, so a good start on that front. The former sits just over a 35% even-strength Market Share and the latter just under 35%, so it's clear who the triggermen are early on for St. Louis' top-6 forwards.

This is abnormal for McTavish, who was between 22-24% in his last two years with Anaheim, but Snuggerud was nearly 29% in his rookie year with St. Louis. There is reason to believe Snuggerud can exceed 30% this season, so the player to watch is McTavish. He won't stay at 35%, but if he can land in the 25-30% range, he is in line for a big bounce back season, top PP minutes notwithstanding. 

Noah Dobson (Montreal Canadiens)

In his last season with the New York Islanders, Dobson had a 22.5% Market Share at even strength. In his first year with Montreal, he finished with 20.2%. That he's over 24% to start this season represents a notable increase, though again, it's just five games and we have to see where he lands once we get a bigger sample.

The issue for Dobson is similar to what we saw with Forsberg: Dobson has landed just 29.2% of his even strength shot attempts on goal compared to 42.8% over the prior two years. If he keeps up this Market Share and gets back over 40% of his attempts on goal, his SOG total is going to skyrocket.

Darnell Nurse (San Jose Sharks)

A defenceman shooting a lot can be a good thing. However, if Nurse is taking over 31% of even strength shot attempts when he's on the ice, it means there are fewer shots for the forwards. That is the case with the Sharks as they have zero forwards over 30% and the only two forwards over 25% are Zach Ostapchuk and Tyler Toffoli. If Macklin Celebrini is getting fewer than 25% of the shot attempts, and young stars like Ivar Stenberg and Michael Misa are under 15%, then there isn't a good balance. It is still early, but the Sharks are dead last by shot attempts per 60 minutes at even strength. They cannot sacrifice what little offence they are generating with high shot volume from their blue line; those shots need to go to the forwards. Let's see where things stand a month from now, but this is certainly something to watch.