Over my last few Ramblings, I have been going over early shot trends in the NHL. Today will be another look at shot trends, but from a different angle. This will be reviewing players who are getting unlucky in turning their shot attempts into shots on goal. In any small sample, SOG totals can be misleading because a player might have taken 30 attempts but only landed 10 of them on target, or just 33%. They might have 10 shots in 7 games, but with a normal attempt/SOG conversion rate, that kind of shot attempts volume likely means 15+ shots. Over a full season, that difference adds up.

Last year, there were 383 forwards who skated at least 560 minutes. Those forwards turned 51.1% of their shot attempts on goal, and 5/6 of them landed at least 46.7% of their attempts on goal. So, assuming consistent shot attempt volume and ice time, any forward below that 46.7% attempt/SOG ratio thus far in the 2026-27 campaign is due for more shots on goal in the coming months.

In the following graphs, we are looking at individual shot attempts per 60 minutes and what percentage of those attempts have turned into shots on goal. Also, the bigger the player logo, the more ice time per game that player gets. So, we are looking for forwards in the bottom-right quadrant with big team logos.

The red and blue dotted lines are the averages for the two stats we're looking at.

Data taken from NHL play by play and current as of the morning of Wednesday, October 14^th. We are limiting the sample to forwards with at least 75 minutes played, which gives us 300 forwards.

Nikita Kucherov (Tampa Bay Lightning)

With just one goal and nine shots in six games, there may be some frustrated Kucherov fantasy owners out there. However, he has landed just 9/34 of his attempts on goal (26.5%), the fourth-worst ratio among the 300 forwards in our sample:

Over the prior two seasons, he managed to turn 45.8% of his attempts into shots on goal, and even a low year in 2025-26 saw him at 43.3%. He has been cheated out of 6-7 shots on goal, and 15-16 shots in six games looks a lot better than nine.

The bigger issue is the shot attempt volume has dropped considerably. He took 20.7 attempts per 60 minutes last season, and 20.0 the year before. So far in 2026-27, that number is just 15.6. Even as his SOG/attempt ratio climbs, unless he starts shooting more often in general, he could fall short of 3.0 shots per game for the first time in a decade. Something to keep an eye on over the next month.

Shane Pinto (Ottawa Senators)

Though not as bad as Kucherov, Pinto's SOG/attempt conversion rate is very low, sitting at 32% through seven games, leading to 11 shots in those appearances:

Unlike Kucherov, Pinto's shot attempts per 60 minutes have increased from the last two seasons. He usually turns 49% of his attempts into shots on goal, so he's been short-changed about six shots on goal. With a more normal SOG/attempt conversion rate, at his ice time level, he'd be looking at roughly an 11% SOG increase from last season. With his typical shooting percentage, that's roughly an extra three goals and 20 shots in a full campaign. Once things start normalizing for Pinto, if he can keep up his overall shot volume, he could not only reach 25 goals for the first time, but 30 goals are within reach.

Rickard Rakell (Pittsburgh Penguins)

We will give a mention to Egor Chinakhov here, who has a lower SOG/attempt conversion rate than Rakell:

The reason for focusing on Rakell is he's averaging nearly 20 minutes a night while skating on the top line. He has turned fewer than 38% of his attempts into SOG; last year, that was a whopping 56.5%, and 52.5% across the last two seasons. He is missing 5-6 shots on goal from where we would expect him, and that would push him near 3.0 shots per game. With his ice time, and at a typical shooting percentage of about 14%, that is easily a 30-goal season in a full year. There might be a fantasy manager out there panicking about Rakell and willing to sell low – he is a guy to take a chance on over the next 75+ games.

Adrian Kempe, Alex Laferriere, and Quinton Byfield (Los Angeles Kings)

It does worry me when we see a bunch of players from the same team falling into the bottom-right quadrant, and the Kings are one of them:

Here are the SOG/attempt rates for Kempe, Laferriere, and Byfield over the prior two seasons, and then so far in 2026-27:

• Kempe: 46.1% / 39%
• Laferriere: 47.9% / 40.9%
• Byfield: 47.5% / 44.8%

There isn't a massive difference for each of these players – three shots for Kempe, two shots for Laferriere, one shot for Byfield – but it always stands out when there is a group of top forwards from the same team on this kind of list, and it is part of the reason why the Kings are struggling to score. They are among the worst teams at creating quality shot attempts, and if the low-quality attempts aren't getting to the net, then there is a very big problem here. Something else to keep an eye on over the next month.  

Jimmy Snuggerud (St. Louis Blues)

Across the first 77 games of his career, Snuggerud turned 49.5% of his shot attempts into shots on goal. So far in 2026-27, that number is just 41.2%:

It isn't a massive difference, but it probably has short-changed him a few shots, and for a guy that already has three goals in six games, extra shots would always be welcome. He has increased his shot attempts per 60 minutes by 18% compared to last year, and if he can hold onto that uptick in volume, he would be looking at an extra 30-35 shots in a full season. Over 84 games, that translates to an extra 4-5 goals. He is already pacing for his first career 30-goal season, and once those shot attempts start turning into more shots on goal, the incoming blow from a shooting percentage decline will soften.

Logan Cooley (Utah Mammoth)

He doesn't fit our shot volume parameters, but it is worth mentioning that Cooley has landed just 25% of his shot attempts on goal:

Over the first three seasons of his career, Cooled had a very high ratio, turning 54.2% of his shot attempts into shots on goal. He has just five SOG in seven games to start the 2026-27 campaign, and that number should actually be 10-11 shots in seven games. Even with zero goals in seven games, if he plays close to a full season, he should still push the 20-goal mark. This isn't a guy to panic over.