This week on Frozen Tool Forensics we are looking at players who are putting up some unexpected production. Every year there are players who do surprising things, and if we can catch them early, they can be season MVPs for managers. Importantly though we have to determine if there is any reason to believe the value can continue. Today is going to be about doing just that. Data is as of Thursday, October 15^th.

Unfortunately, there is not a report we can run for 'unexpected production' so we will have to get creative. We have done this kind of exercise before, and in the past, we compared early season results to past performance, but for this year we are going to try to compare it to ADP. A lot of standard 12-team leagues draft in the range of 200 players so anyone above that range might not have been drafted in a lot of leagues.

Slight side bar: for the purposes of today's analysis though we aren't using straight ADP, we are using rank. Basically, so instead of seeing that four players had an ADP of between 4.1 and 4.6 after the top three, the player with the 4.1 gets ranked four and the player with the 4.6 is ranked seven – they have the seventh highest ADP. It just makes it a little bit easier to process the data.

Overall though we are looking at players at the end of our ADP list who have strong point pace numbers through the start of the season. We are also including some general information about their deployment with their total time on ice and percent of the team's power-play share.

Vasily Podkolzin has been mentioned in most places and if he is somehow not rostered definitely grab him. Keeping up a 126-point pace is unlikely, but a guy getting 19 minutes a night with Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl at even strength and on the power play is worth rostering.

It is nice to see this start from Cole Perfetti. It is something we looked for last year after the departure of Nikolaj Ehlers, but an early season injury derailed the potential breakout. So far in 26-27 he is a little shy of 19 minutes of time on ice (a career high), on the top power play, and shooting almost three times per game (also a career high). Still, an 112-point pace is Perfetti running too hot, but something in the 75-point range seems very reasonable given this deployment, which would be a huge improvement for Perfetti.

As much fun as it has been to see Jaden Schwartz putting up some points after a move to Colorado, this is not one I am buying. He has been averaging about 13 minutes of time on ice, down from 16-17 minutes in Seattle. He also is seeing significantly less of the power-play share in Colorado as well. His shot rates have been fairly typical for Schwartz so far, but that is less than two per game on average. His production then is coming from a sky-high 30 percent shooting percentage and a very high team shooting percentage while he is on the ice. Just dropping back to a more usual shooting percentage for Schwartz puts him on closer to a 54-point pace – aligned with his best seasons in Seattle. That still seems to be the high-water mark, but if we want to be optimistic maybe he has a better shot at reaching it in Colorado, though given his deployment it still might not be likely.

We don't have a ton of career history for Fraser Minten, essentially just his 82 games in 25-26 for Boston. Still, compared to that he is up slightly in time on ice and in power-play share, though probably only because of a small sample. The positive thing though is his shot rates have increased, more than doubled in fact. He is approaching three shots per game, which is great to see. Does that mean he will sustain a point per game pace? Absolutely not, but he has seen as much as 18:41 total time on ice in a game playing with James Hagans so maybe we could see a 50 point breakout.

Connor McMicheal has had a productive start, but his ice time has been all over the place, from about 13 minutes in one game to over 18 minutes in another game. Overall, he is still seeing about a minute less on average than he was in Washington, though slightly more power-play time. His shot rates haven't really improved, and his shooting percentage likely comes down so there is definitely a drop coming. At a maximum he might get into the 70-point range, but a lot is going to have to go right in St. Louis, and more likely he falls well short of that mark.

Owen Power started off with what seemed like some pretty unsustainable scoring with five points over his first three games but jumped into an even bigger role when Rasmus Dahlin missed time, adding some more production to his ledger. Overall though he is shooting at a career low .9 shots per game despite career highs in ice time and power-play share. With Bowen Byram out of the picture and a bigger role available a 45-point pace seems pretty reasonable, but with essentially zero peripherals to offer he might be a hard guy to hold with a healthy Dahlin.

Kent Johnson is looking to repeat his breakout in 2024-25, and seems like he is being given the opportunity to do so. He is on the top line and top power play with more than 65 percent of the team's power-play share and about 16 and a half minutes a night of total time on ice. He is shooting a career high 2.8 times per night. Unfortunately, there is a lot bouncing his way for the moment that might not be sustainable. Still, this is the kind of deployment he needs and a 60-point pace seems reasonable if it holds.

That is all for this week.

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