Over the last couple of weeks, I have been going over ice time trends and changes in Market Share. In this instance, the term 'Market Share' means the percentage of a team's shots taken by a specific player when they're on the ice. So, if the Colorado Avalanche have taken 100 shots with Nathan MacKinnon on the ice, and he's taken 25 of those 100 shots, his Market Share is 25%. Today, I want to combine our two ideas. Half of today's Ramblings will cover improvements in 5-on-5 Market Share of shot attempts.

As for the other half, in his 'Analytics Advantage' column back in July, Stas Pupkov showed that a good portion of a player's full-season ice time improvement from the prior season is obvious by Game 10. Nearly half the league has reached that mark, so in using Frozen Tools, today's Ramblings will also cover forwards with big improvements in their share of their team's PPTOI compared to last year. We will combine that with forwards who've seen significant improvements in their 5-on-5 Market Share to see who is A) getting a lot more PPTOI and B) shooting a lot more at 5-on-5.

Shot data from Natural Stat Trick and all is current from the afternoon of Wednesday, October 21^st. Roster percentages also from Frozen Tools.

Noah Ostlund (Buffalo Sabres)

Yahoo Ownership: 3%

Fantrax Ownership: 39%

ESPN Ownership: 3%

It has been a solid start to the year for Östlund with six points in nine games, but there is room for improvement here. He is the only player in our data to at least double his share of his team's PPTOI while also improving his 5-on-5 shot Market Share:

With these kinds of leaps, the improvements will come. He is currently registering a point on fewer than 43% of goals scored with him on the ice at 5-on-5, and no forward in the league last year with 1000 minutes played was under 47%, and only 3/122 of them were under 50%. His per-minute shot rate still isn't elite, but it's now above league average, and there are more goals on the table if he improves his shooting percentage. Just beware that beyond his shots, peripherals like blocks and hits will be low so he's much more valuable in points-only leagues than multi-cat formats.

Kent Johnson (Columbus Blue Jackets)

Yahoo Ownership: 14%

Fantrax Ownership: 49%

ESPN Ownership: 14%

There is a lot of negativity around the Blue Jackets right now, but Johnson does have four goals in eight games to start the year. He has also improved his share of the power play time from 39% to 70% as well as his shot Market Share from 21% to 28%:

Individually, that he's shooting 20% indicates negative regression from Johnson, but he also has just one assist. Typically, he assists on at least one-third of the goals scored with him on the ice. When the goals go down, the assists will go up, and he will find some balance. Like Östlund, though, his hits and blocks will be modest (hits will be especially low) so this is another player who will have a lot more value in points-only formats than multi-cat leagues.

The secondary concern is that Head Coach Rick Bowness looks like he's ready to bench every single player on the roster, so who knows what each player's role will look like three weeks from now.

Fraser Minten (Boston Bruins)

Yahoo Ownership: 37%

Fantrax Ownership: 75%

ESPN Ownership: 41%

With eight points in 10 games, the Minten breakout is underway. When a young player, particularly one without elite draft pedigree, is breaking out, the question is always whether it's 'for real'. Well, his 5-on-5 Market Share has exploded from under 19% last year to over 33% this year to go with a modest PPTOI share increase:

There should be doubts that he'll remain at a Market Share of 33% as that is typically elite-shooter territory, but if he can remain anywhere over 25% then he has added an entirely new dimension to his fantasy profile. We need to see him maintain elevated shot rates in the coming months, but this is a very good start, and the final piece to the puzzle will be even more power-play ice time. He will be in very tough to push 70 points without a regular top PP role, but he is heading to be a 50-point player this season regardless of that role. Unlike the two players above, he is a guy who lays a lot of hits and can post anywhere from 40-60 blocks so there is good multi-cat value here (which is why he's carrying a lot more ownership).

Joel Farabee (Calgary Flames)

Yahoo Ownership: 4%

Fantrax Ownership: 15%

ESPN Ownership: 4%

Fantasy value from the Flames will be sparse this year, but Farabee does have five points in eight games and that's with zero goals. He has reached a league-average Market Share rate (over 21%) and is seeing over two-thirds of Calgary's PPTOI, giving him sizeable increases in both areas compared to last year (the PPTOI in particular):

That three of his five assists have been on the power play is a good news/bad news situation. Having a substantial PPTOI increase means his three PPPs in eight games reflects his new situation, and not just pure luck. That's the good news. The bad news is that Calgary has scored just one goal with him on the ice at 5-on-5. That is due to the team shooting under 2% in his minutes, and it won't stay that low, so positive regression will help, but Calgary will be a low-scoring team so how high that rises is a fair question. Either way, these kinds of PP and Market Share improvements mean he's a legitimate threat for 60 points and 200 shots. That is not nothing.