Welcome back to another edition of the Roos Lets Loose monthly mailbag, where I answer your fantasy hockey questions by giving advice that should be useful to all poolies even if they don't own the specific players being discussed. As a reminder, if you want your fantasy hockey question(s) answered in the next mailbag, check out the end of the column, where I explain the ways to get it/them to me as well as the details you should provide when sending. The earlier you send a question the more likely it is to be included in the mailbag, and the deeper dive I can provide with my reply.

Full disclosure – all but one of these questions from me. I realize that often you need answers to your questions sooner than when the next mailbag will run. If so though, then please still send them, and let me know when sending and I can give you an immediate answer via email before the column would run.

Question #1 (from "Shame on Ice")

I'm in a 16 team, points only, Roto league where each team gets only three free agent picks for the entire season, and at set times. The first chance to use one is coming up very soon. I have my eyes on six players: Jonathan Lekkermaki, Tye Kartye, Kayden Guhle, Michael Brandsegg-Nygard, Emmitt Finniee, Oliver Bonk. Who would you choose?

It's a bit difficult to answer without seeing your entire line-up, as this is not apples to apples in that two (Guhle, Bonk) are D, while the rest are forwards. What I'll do is give you my choices at each position and then my overall pick.

For the defensemen, it's Bonk over Guhle. It's not just that Guhle is already a Certified Band-Aid Boy despite not even being 25-years-old, but even when he's healthy he's worst suited for points only, as he has never come close to even point per every other game production despite decent TOIs. Bonk has done well this season since making his way into the line-up, and clearly has more offensive potential than Guhle. The risk with Bonk is he's a rookie who hasn't yet turned 22, and Rick Tocchet won't care that Bonk is highly touted and a former first rounder, as with Tocchet it's all about "what have you done for me lately." But so far so good for Bonk, and given Guhle's lack of offense and propensity to get hurt, Bonk is the easy pick of the two, Tocchet risks notwithstanding.

Turning to forwards, Finnie and MBN have been linemates for most of the early going, and finding quite a bit of success with veteran Alex DeBrincat. For sure points only is not the best format for either of them; yet they're nevertheless doing well when it comes to scoring. But we can't forget Finnie started strong last season before fading. Finnie's SH% is somewhat high thus far. MBN came storming out of the gates, shooting the puck a lot and scoring as well. He's slowed; but whereas Finnie has benefitted from a high SH%, MBN's sems unsustainably low. Still Finnie is seeing a lot more total ice time, plus has a full year of NHL experience under his belt. I like Finnie because although he might have a lower ceiling than MBN for this season given what we saw from MBN in the early going, it would not be much lower, whereas I feel Finnie's floor is a good bit higher than MBN's for this season.

Kartye has also found his way into a top six role, playing alongside J.T. Miller and Pavel Dorofeyev on a Ranger team that has produced a lot better offensively than many expected. Kartye has never been productive, but is now right at his breakout threshold, so it's possible he's connecting the dots. But he has a high SH%, is not even sniffing the PP, and it's unclear if he can maintain a top six spot, what with the likes of Oliver Bjorkstrand, Eeli Tolvanen, Will Cuylle all looming. I think the risk of him losing his spot is too high, so I'd not choose him over either of the Detroit players.

That leaves Lekkermaki, who is my pick of all the forwards. Not able to stick in Vancouver in either of the last two seasons, it felt like maybe the hyped Lekkermaki could be a bust in the making. But he is only 22, and was not given long looks either time. Now, however, either Vancouver is intent on him staying put, or he's helping his own cause, or a combination of both. His overall TOI is still not great and his SH% even higher, but he's producing in general and, perhaps more importantly, on the PP. And Vancouver's offense has been decent overall despite their struggles as a team, with Lekkermaki helping, and looking quite good when playing with Elias Pettersson. Given these factors, he should be able to stick with the team and do more of the same, or perhaps even better if he gets added TOI.

It's Bonk for D, Lekkermaki for F. Between the two, I like Lekkermaki. Bonk seems poised to succeed, but with Rick Tocchet as coach there is a risk of Bonk being deemphasized, if not scratched. Good luck!

Question #2 (from Me)

Is Matthew Knies DOA for Columbus? Four points in his first two games, then none after. He's still getting top six ice time, but no longer is a PP1 fixture. Was he a creature of Toronto hype, or did the rising tide of Toronto's offense lift his boat these past two seasons?

Of course I can't know what Knies was feeling, or his mindset, but I have to guess he was shellshocked at having been traded. That takes time to sink in, plus he was dealt a mere three days before the start of the regular season, such that he didn't have ample time to acclimate to his new team. Those are justifications for his slower start, plus I think there is still reason to not give up hope for him in 2025-26.

It is true he's never averaged two SOG per game in any season, and at 1.6 as I write this. He's been quite close in the past, plus, likely due to being a selective shooter, his SH% the past two seasons were 19.1% and 16.4%. Despite a tad lower SOG rate for 2026-27 so far, he's shooting 10.5%, meaning he should have another goal or two by now. He's also done decent on the PP, as for the past two seasons he took the ice for the 96th most cumulative PP time of all forwards, and ranked 90th in PPPts. He managed that despite low IPPs on the PP, owing to Auston Matthews, Michael Nylander, John Tavares and, in 2024-25, Mitch Marner syphoning away points. Yes, he has a mere one PPPt; and Columbus is a train wreck with the man advantage thus far, with just four PPGs for the season, which, as I write this, puts them tied for last in the entire NHL. So that should improve, and, in tandem, Knies' PP scoring.

Columbus is shooting 9.6% at 5×5 with Knies on the ice, or a little bit below where he was in Toronto, with 10.1% and 10.3% being his rates in his two most recent Leaf seasons. He also had a 74.2% IPP overall with Toronto last season, but is at 62.5% this season. It doesn't follow that he had a higher IPP playing alongside more talented forwards in Toronto than he has now with admittedly less skilled Columbus forwards, so that should improve. He's also been saddled with a 44.4% OZ% in Columbus, which is well below his rates in Toronto, and those seemingly can only go up, although Knies has to start producing since he's mainly still being used on PP1 but no longer on a line with Kent Johnson and Adam Fantilli. That is leading to the lower OZ%, plus lower TOI overall. Yet interestingly, he had lower TOIs in his first two games for Columbus which saw him tally four points, suggesting he might be a less is more type of player.

Given what Columbus gave up to get Knies, plus how much he earns, he should get ample chances to be put back on the top line. With his underlying metrics showing positive signs, plus Columbus' struggles on the PP not helping matters, if he can stick on the top line and on PP1, then even with the hole he's dug himself he could still have a chance at 55-60+ points this season.

Question #3 (from Me)

Of course we're still early enough in the season for player stats to change quite a bit. But what about team stats? How, if at all, should we expect them to change, but also not to change?

As happens every season, refs are blowing their whistles a lot. As I write this, a total of 11 teams are averaging more PPTOI per game than the Avs' league leading 5:17 per game from 2025-26. Sure enough it is leading to increased PP scoring, as Dallas led the NHL with 71 PPGs last season, translating to just under nine for every ten games played; but six teams have a higher PPG/game than that as of now. For those GMs basking in PPPt totals for your players, be prepared for those to renormalize.

Also, more defensemen – 15 – are taking the ice for 70%+ of their teams' PP minutes, versus just nine at the end of last season. One would think that if so many teams are taking the ice for a lot more PP time that, if anything, the percentages for their PP1 QBs would be lower. Perhaps contrarily look for that percentage to drop. Yet the number of forwards who've played 80%+ of their team's PP minutes thus far this season stands at just seven, but at the end of 2025-26 it was 11. If your stud forward isn't seeing a % of PP time you thought he would, give it another month or two.

Just one team – Vancouver – finished 2025-26 with a negative goal differential that was greater than one per game. As of now though, five teams meet the criteria, which I don't see continuing indefinitely. Similarly, just five teams had a positive goal differential that was half a goal per game, whereas at present that number stands at nine. Although technically a player stat, right now there are six goalies on pace to start 60+ games, when for last season just Karel Vejmelka did so. Interestingly though, TOI averages for both forwards and defensemen are tracking 2025-26 numbers pretty closely, which surprised me given all the added PP time many are receiving. Similarly, the numbers of teams with a GAA over 3.00 are similar as well to the number at the end of 2025-26. Also, the total for teams averaging over 30 SOG per game thus far are comparable to total at the end of 2026-27.

In all, yes, there are some outlying rates thus far. Specifically, look for PP TOIs to drop quite a bit, and for fewer netminders to be playing as high a percentage of their teams' games as they have thus far.

Question #4 (from Me)

Beyond the previous question, although it is still early, are there team ice time numbers you're seeing which should concern those who own pretty much any players from those teams?

For sure the Flyers. Just Trevor Zegras is averaging over 18:00 per game. Although PP TOIs for players are inflated, not in Philly, due to none of them seeing even two-thirds of the teams' PP minutes. But didn't a number of Buffalo players do well last season despite not heaps of TOI? Yes and no. They had a lot of guys who were able to score at a 45-55 point rate; however, few were higher. Either Rick Tocchet changes his ways, which seems like a longshot, or he gets fired, don't count on Flyer forwards to do anywhere near as well as they might if not deployed so unfavorably.

Also, I'm surprised that as many Blues forwards are doing as well as they are given that they're not being deployed much better. In fact, other than Robert Thomas, no Blue forward is taking the ice for even 18:00 per game. Don't let Thomas' 20:17 per game fool you into thinking he's due to explode, as among 36 total forwards who are averaging over 20:00 TOI per game, his 2:33 PP TOI per game ranks not only ranks him dead last, but only two of the other 36 are not averaging a full minute more PPTOI per game than him.

Ice times are also low in Utah. Yes, they have a true first unit PP, with four players taking the ice for over 73% of their man advantage minutes. But despite that, Clayton Keller leads the team in TOI per game at barely over 18:00. No fewer than a dozen Mammoth forwards have played every game while averaging 12:00+ TOI per game. So far scoring has not suffered; however, I'm not sure if their rates are sustainable given this deployment.

Question #5 (from Me)

Which of these goalies, who've all started more games as of now than were expected, do you expect to start the most games over the rest of the season? Jacob Fowler, Joseph Woll, Cam Talbot, or Nico Daws? Do you see any of them with a chance to become a #1 or 1A for this season?

Welcome to the 2026-27 edition of goalie voodoo! Before the season started, I don't think anyone felt any of these five was likely to play in more than 30 or so games, if even that many. Heck – Fowler was in the AHL! But of course things have played out differently than expected, and now each of these five is either sharing starts or, for the moment, playing more than the presumed starter for their team.

Right off the bat I think Talbot is holding fort until Jet Greaves can get back on track. Greaves is the future of the team and Talbot, at age 39 and having seen his games played numbers go from 54 to 47 to 34 last season, likely doesn't have it in him to start 40+ games. So maybe he plays more at the outset; but I still expect his games played to be under 35, especially since we saw last season that Rick Bowness is not afraid to run with Greaves, who played 14 of 17 games to end 2025-26.

The other three are less cut and dried. Philly signed Dan Vladar to an extension that is set to kick in next season. I'd compare it to what Buffalo did with Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen a couple of seasons ago, and he has, in fact, been the starter ever since. But Joseph Woll is no slouch, plus has another year on his deal. Still Woll will be a UFA in 2028, giving Philly less incentive to run with him. But this was a playoff team in 2025-26, so they might turn to whoever provides them the best chance to be able to replicate that. Plus, if Vladar is performing poorly and they don't see a path to the playoffs, they might want to ensure he doesn't lose confidence. So if I had to guess, I'd say Woll still does play fewer games than Vladar over the course of the season, but almost assuredly more than Talbot, and perhaps even slightly more than Vladar if Vladar doesn't right his ship.

Montreal is seemingly a true goalie carousel. But what separates Fowler from Jakub Dobes and Samuel Montembeault is Fowler has yet to encounter struggles at the NHL level. And Montembeault was seen as a placeholder at best, with a salary that made it easy to push him aside – as occurred in 2025-26 – if he did poorly. Most likely Montreal didn't envision handing the reins to Fowler, who only turns 22 later this month; however, Carey Price was Montreal's starter by that age, although he was a top-five pick, whereas Fowler was a later round steal. And of these five teams, Montreal has the most potential to not only make the playoffs but do well. If Fowler plays like he is now, he could be a true #1; however, I suspect his leash will not be too long, and it could be a three-headed monster if all are healthy.

As for Daws, Stuart Skinner was inked as a back-up, but insurance policy if, as did end up occurring, Connor Hellebuyck wanted out and was indeed traded. But given the sentiment that Winnipeg's return for Hellebuyck was quite disappointing, chances are they will want Daws, one of those pieces they did receive, to show their fan base that they got a semi-decent return for Hellebuyck. I think Daws will be given a chance to take over at 1A for this season and play 45 or so games in anticipation of playing 50+ next season if all goes well.

I'd rank Daws as most likely to have the most starts, with Woll next highest. The wild card is Fowler, who could get the most of the bunch by a lot of he keeps up his pace, but also has two other goalies who could push him aside. Talbot seem like a longshot to play anywhere near as much as he has thus far.

Question #6 (from Me too)

How do you see things unfolding for Brady Tkachuk over the course of the entire season? He started with zero points in five games; and although he is now above a point per game, that is largely due to him tallying 12 of his points in just four games. When the dust settles, will he be the same old Brady, namely at or near a point per game but not better?

I believe Brady is an overrated player across the board. Even in leagues counting SOG, HIT and PIM, he is seen as a first round caliber selection. But I didn't like what I saw from him coming into this season, and, if anything, I'm even more concerned now.

As I write this, nine of his 15 points have come on the PP, from a player who only had one season with more than a PPPt every third game, back in 2022-23. In fact, even though he cumulatively received the 18th most PPTOI among forwards from 2020-21 to 2025-26, his cumulative PPPt total ranked him 47th. That is quite lousy. He shot 12.5% on the PP during that same stretch, which although not surprisingly better than his overall SH%, was ninth worst among the top 30 forwards in PPSOG during that period. Also, although Aleksander Barkov's scoring rate had been declining quite a bit even before missing all of 2025-26, his PP production was still quite strong, as from 2021-22 through 2024-25 he took the ice for the 34th most cumulative PPTOI among forwards, his PPPt total ranked him 19th. So when Barkov returns chances are Brady's PP production will slow even more so than already would be expected.

Also, Tkachuk's SH% at present is 17.4%, when entering this season it was 9.6%. I'm willing to consider it might be reasonable for it to be somewhat higher given the added talent around him; but nearly double his career rate is obviously unsustainable. Also, Tkachuk's TOI has not risen at all. In fact, it is on pace to drop for the third straight season to be his lowest average since he was a rookie. And if it stays where it is now, even point per game scoring would be a stretch, since in 121 instances since 2000-01 of a LW (according to nhl.com positions) averaging at least a point per game in 41+ games, a grand total of just one averaged under 17:24 TOI per game, which is a minute above what Brady is averaging now.

Brady is a sell high. His TOI too low to be even a point per gamer, plus his SH% is not sustainable and when Barkov returns his PPPt rate should drop even more than it would in the normal course.

Question #7 (from Me too)

William Nylander was among the top scorers through the first month of the season. But in 2025-26 he started red hot as well, only to cool somewhat from there. Is he hockey's new "Mr. October" or will he be able to keep up his current pace if not for the entire season then at least longer enough to best his 102 point scoring rate from last season?

I believe Nylander is once again scoring at an unsustainable rate. Look at his SH%, which for his career had been 13.5% but stands at 21.7%, meaning he's likely scored about four more goals than expected. I realize he shot at a 19.2% rate last season, so one could argue this is his new normal; but last season his SOG rate was 2.4, suggesting that by being a more selective shooter he was a more accurate shooter. This season he's back to 2.9 SOG per game; although that is lower than the past and suggests he should be able to shoot at a rate higher than what is has been for his career, it is still too high.

He also stands at just under one PPPt per every other game, with his previous best being 35 in 82 games. But his PP scoring rate had been trending down, and last season was barely over one per every three games. It is true the Leafs' PP was uncharacteristically lousy last season, and has rebounded, and that Nylander's PP IPP is actually a bit low for him. But let's keep in mind that John Tavares, who is still a whiz on the PP, has been out, and once he returns he likely will syphon away PPPts from Nylander.

There's also the fact that 54.5% of Nylander's assists have been secondary assists. That not to high of a rate for some forwards, but it is for Nylander, whose average over the past seven seasons has been a much lower 34.8%. So just like he's likely tallied more goals than he ought to have, the same holds true for assists.

Also, his 5×5 team SH% is 12.5%, which, although a tad lower than last season's 13.0%, is high for him, as he had been between 8.8% and 10.1% in the prior five seasons. Yes, his trend had been upward, so maybe a low double-digit percentage might be reasonable; however, 11.5% seems too high.

Make no mistake – Nylander is elite, with a floor in the 90s. But the 110+ point player we're seeing now is a mirage due to unsustainably higher goal scoring, secondary assist, and team SH% rates. So I'm not sensing the wheels will come off, but a drop to at or around 100, like last season, is likely in the cards.

************************

To get mailbag questions to me either (1) email them to [email protected] with the words "Roos Mailbag" as the subject line, or (2) send them to me via a private message on the DobberHockey Forums, where my username is "rizzeedizzee".

When sending me your questions, remember to provide as much detail about your league/situation as possible. Examples of things I need to know include what type of league you're in (i.e., limited keeper, dynasty, or one-year; roto vs. H2H; auction – if so, what the budget is – or non-auction), how many teams are in the league, does the salary cap matter, how many players are rostered (and of those, how many start at each position as well as how many bench and/or IR spots there are), what categories are scored and how are they weighted, plus other details if pertinent. If your question involves whether to pick up or drop a player, give me a list of top free agents available and let me know if the number of pick-ups is limited or if there is a priority system for pick-ups. If you're thinking of making a trade, it would be good to know not only the roster of the other team you might trade with but also where you stand in your categories. If your question involves keepers, in addition to giving me the options for who to keep, let me know if offseason trading is allowed and to what extent it is a viable option given your league. In sum, the key is to tell me enough for me to give you a truly proper answer, and for readers of this column to benefit from the answer/advice I provide. When in doubt, it's best to err on the side of inclusion since I can always omit or disregard things that don't matter.