In today's Ramblings, rather than an over-arching theme as is common for my write-ups, I want to just cover a couple different things, including some skating data from NHL Edge as well as two teams with favourable schedules over the next two months, but for different reasons.  

Elias Pettersson's Rebound

With 18 points in 17 games, Pettersson is having his most productive stretch in two years (he had 21 points in 15 games back in November/December of 2024). The question is how much of this is just a heater, and how much is a genuine rebound to the Pettersson of 3-4 years ago.

Anyone who has regularly read my writing over the last few years knows I wasn't believing Pettersson's rebound because of his skating problems. He suffered a knee injury in the middle of the 2023-24 season, and it didn't seem to recover over the next two years. Using skating data from NHL Edge, and going over Pettersson's prior four seasons, here is how often he had skating bursts between 20-22 MPH per game in each season:

The 2022-23 was the last season we know Pettersson was healthy, and it was also the season he put up 102 points. Two years later, the rate of 20-22 MPH skating bursts per game had declined by a whopping 45%. It is obvious that his knee tendinitis was a big problem.

But notice that from 2024-25 to 2025-26, he improved his skating bursts by 34%. It has increased again so far this season to 1.47 skating bursts per game, an increase of 40% from two years ago. He is still not back to where he was in his career-year of 2022-23, but he's a lot better than he was a couple of seasons ago. I don't know if we'll ever see the 100-point Pettersson again, but it looks like the 55-point days are behind us now, too.

Auston Matthews' Rebound

When thinking about injured players, Matthews is a top-of-mind name. His nagging back issue was a big topic for fantasy managers in the offseason, and with 11 goals and 26 points through 17 games, the question of whether he's regained his old form is fair. Using the same 20-22 MPH bursts per game as we just used with Pettersson, here is Matthews in each season from 2022-2026, and what he's done so far this year:

Notice the clear downward trend over the prior three seasons, and then the huge rebound this year. The last time Matthews' per-game skating bursts were this high, he had a 69-goal, 107-point season.

There are still 67 games left on the Leafs' schedule, so the degree of Matthews' bounce-back has yet to be truly written, and I do have concerns about his shot rate, but it really does look like he is not the player he was in either of the prior two seasons. Maybe he doesn't push for 70 goals ever again, but the concerns he's a sub-point-per-game guy now should be alleviated.

Olen Zellweger's Breakout?

The issue for Zellweger's fantasy value is power-play time. He won't overtake Rasmus Dahlin for PP1 minutes anytime soon, and he may be third in line behind Owen Power. However, his 1.6 points per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 is easily the rate of a #1 defenceman, and his 7.2 shots per 60 minutes is sixth among all blue liners.

As with Pettersson and Matthews, we may be seeing the true Zellweger breakout appear in the skating data. Using the same 20-22 MPH bursts per game we've used so far, here are Zellweger's rates in each of the four seasons of his career:

Among defencemen, Matthew Schaefer is in a tier of his own at the top of the leaderboard, but Zellweger is in the next tier below with guys like Philip Broberg, Brandon Montour, Luke Hughes, and Lane Hutson.

Skating 20 minutes a game with a very low hit rate, modest block rate, and no PP time is a tough way to build fantasy value. Zellweger could very well be a 35- to 40-point defenceman, but the lack of hits/blocks and minimal PP production makes him a tough player to have in multi-cat formats. However, the improvements to his skating look legitimate, and it's helping to unlock another level to his offensive upside. He just won't have a commensurate rise in fantasy upside.

Time to Buy on the San Jose Sharks

I get the concerns around San Jose right now. They have just nine goals in their last five games, losing four of those games. There are also some underlying play-driving issues that could make consistent offensive performance difficult, particularly for anyone not skating on a line with Macklin Celebrini

The good news is that starting this Monday, November 9^th, the Sharks have an eight-week stretch where their opponents have the second-worst points percentage in the league, per Frozen Tools. Their opponents are also giving up 3.19 goals per game, the most in the league. The Sharks play 26 games in those eight weeks, being 1 of 5 teams to play at least that many games. Finally, they are 1 of 5 teams to have at least 12 games on light days through that stretch. In other words, the Sharks have an offence-friendly eight-week stretch that includes a lot of games and a lot of light days.

In shallower fantasy formats, now is the time to check for guys like Ivar Stenberg, Mason Marchment, and Tyler Toffoli, and those in deeper formats should be checking for guys like Michael Misa, Collin Graf, and Sam Dickinson.

The same could be said for the Calgary Flames, though to a lesser degree. They have an easy schedule, but it's more friendly for their goalies than it is their offence – Calgary's upcoming eight-week stretch has their opponents with the lowest rate of goals per game in the league. Depending on the availability of Devin Cooley, it seems like a good time for Dustin Wolf to improve his numbers.