The Dobotomy

It started out so promising. So how did things go south for Peter Mueller so quickly?

After averaging a point-and-a-half per game in the Western League and putting on WJC show overshadowed only by Jonathan Toews. He made the NHL as a 19 year old and potted 54 points, with the bulk of those coming in the second half. Then the bottom dropped out.

Whenever I struggle for a topic, a nice and easy way out is to just speak of many things. Call it more in-depth ramblings, but I prefer to think of it as “the column about nothing” and capitalize on any lingering Seinfeld popularity…

I hate missing guys. I’m not talking about the guys who, after a few years you write off and then they explode from out of nowhere (right, Dustin Penner?). Those guys are players who – at one time or another – I have already formed an idea in my head where their potential is at. Even if I have since changed my mind, like with Penner, I can always change it back.

No, it’s the players who I didn’t see coming in the first place that get to me. The examples that come to mind are Milan Hejduk (I was so blinded by Chris Drury’s impending arrival that I didn’t think much of Hejduk’s upside), Patrice Bergeron (was off my radar when he came to camp as an 18-year-old) and Mike Richards. I knew Richards was coming and I knew he would be good – but only 70-point good. Now we have another one. Colorado forward Ryan O’Reilly.

So how does a 25-year-old fringe NHLer creep under everybody’s radar to thrive in a plum role on a line with an up-and-coming superstar? And will Matt Moulson continue to thrive or is he destined to fizzle?

Just eyeballing some of the early season scoring leaders, the old guard is already starting to take their positions. There are a few pleasant surprises though, and some unpleasant ones when scanning the bottom of the NHL stats list. Nicklas Backstrom, Alexander Ovechkin (Washington), Dany Heatley and Joe Thornton (San Jose) are sure to be in the Top 10 by season’s end. Here are some thoughts on some other names you see up there.

There are eight or nine situations around the league that have a pair of established star forwards on the first line and a spot up for grabs. Needless to say, if a player with any skill can grab a hold of that spot, he’s in for a huge jump in production.  Let’s take a look.

Part 1

The second part of a two-part look at some training camp battles with fantasy implications.

Every September, rosters spots are up for grabs and rarely do we consider big an impact the result could be in fantasy leagues. What if Petri Kontiola, who had a very good camp in Chicago last year, beat out Kris Versteeg for that final spot? Would he have later received Calder consideration? Instead of making his fantasy owners look smart, he’s playing in the KHL now.  All because of what may have amounted to a couple of exhibition games. There are a dozen examples like that each year and here are some situations to watch for.

Poolies are always trying to find that edge. We’re always looking for that new angle to look at statistics and twist them to our liking. We can make a player who had 15 points in 46 games look like a gem by drilling down into his ice time and pulling out his points per minute played. Or if that doesn’t work, how about his points per shift? Or his points per second of power-play time? Or his points on so-and-so’s line versus off of it? So many ways to look at it and if you find the right one, you can ‘prove’ that your guy is a future stud. Encouraging this dream world, DobberHockey now has the Frozen Pool section, where you can manipulate stats to your heart’s desire. Start analyzing and you become lost, as I was with my latest findings.

There is a lot going on in the hockey world down in, er, the desert. With all of these off-ice distractions, how can these promising young players continue to blossom into fantasy studs? Let’s take a look at some of the key components.