Frozen Pool Forensics: Brayden Schenn

by Chris Liggio on August 25, 2017

Despite the youth transition the St. Louis Blues are certainly in win-now mode after trading for former Philadephia Flyer Brayden Schenn. In a draft day deal that saw the Blues part with underperforming forward Jori Lehtera, they upgrade with a player that possesses positional flexibility in being both a center and a left wing. Coach Mike Yeo has already proclaimed that he will give Schenn a chance to center one of the top two lines and if he can latch on with Vladimir Tarasenko that career year should indeed occur.

NHL Stats – Last 5 Years

SEASON

GP

G

A

P

PntPG

+/-

PIM

Shots

SH%

HITS

PPG

PPP

SHG

BLKS

FOW

FO%

PPTOI

%PP

%SH

TOI/G

%TOI

2016-2017

79

25

30

55

0.70

-13

38

178

14.0

189

17

28

0

42

232

47.0

03:45

66.1

0.2

17:48

29.2

2015-2016

80

26

33

59

0.74

3

33

178

14.6

187

11

22

0

30

52

44.8

03:32

60.6

0.2

16:54

27.6

2014-2015

82

18

29

47

0.57

-4

34

156

11.5

198

7

19

0

38

86

46.7

02:59

58.0

0.7

17:03

27.9

2013-2014

82

20

21

41

0.50

0

54

178

11.2

200

4

9

0

37

296

43.2

02:11

36.9

2.4

15:45

25.9

2012-2013

47

8

18

26

0.55

-8

24

79

10.1

109

2

10

0

22

206

45.5

02:26

41.3

0.7

15:32

25.7

Average

82

21

29

51

0.62

-5

41

170

12.6

196

9

20

0

37

193

45.1

03:01

53.2

0.9

16:42

27.4

 

 

Looking at the past few seasons of Schenn’s career we see the emergence of a consistent fantasy option with man advantage prowess. The Philadelphia Flyers are a well-known power-play machine and there is no denying their reliance upon it for production when you see that of Schenn’s 25 goals scored last season 17 came on the man advantage. A double edge sword indeed in that he is brutally bad at even strength yet produces on the power play; they’re certainly gambling that his abilities translate in a new system that does not have Claude Giroux slinging pucks from the half wall.

For St. Louis and fantasy owners, Schenn’s physical style will be more than welcomed in the Western Conference. With seasons of 189, 187, and 198 hits the past three years you can count on him in your multi-category leagues. It is unwise to expect his average power-play time to mirror last season which was far above the norm for anyone not named Erik Karlsson. Because of his proven ability to score goals a man up with 28 in the past two seasons, the Blues will certainly deploy him on unit one and exposure to Tarasenko is always quite nice. One very important notion regarding Schenn coming to the Blues that many may not be aware of is the fact that he dominates the Central Division; in 13 games against teams coming from said division, last year Schenn scored 12 points. For a team that won only half of its series against division foes his ability to maintain pace against the Central will be absolutely vital to the Blue’s success.

                                     Advanced Stats

Year

PDO

5 on 5 SH%

Off. Zone Start %

PTS/60

IPP

CF%

2016-17

994

7.13

55.76

2.3

61.1

48.46

2015-16

1024

8.02

52.29

2.6

60.8

50.4

2014-15

1004

6.45

56.44

2.0

43.1

49.66

2013-14

1015

8.37

55.22

1.9

45.1

47.86

 

 

 

 

 

      

      Although we cannot use the stats above to predict how things will work out in St. Louis nobody likes seeing Schenn’s PDO drop by 30 in 2016-17. The Flyers plain and simply were not great last season after their hot streak early on. A team that did well at home but was brutal on the road, the lack of quality depth was apparent at times especially in even-strength scenarios. Had it not been for the power play this team’s offensive output would’ve been mediocre at best. Not to rip on the Flyers but the change of scenery should benefit Schenn going forth and a shot at sixty plus points is fully within reach. Now 26 years of age and in his prime he is more than capable in a premier role.

         Whether it’s right off the bat or when the inevitable Paul Statsny injury occurs we will see Schenn line up alongside Tarasenko at some point either as his center or his co-winger. Whichever may be the case, lining up with an elite sniper will really up your abilities just ask Jori Lehtera whose stats with and without him are glaringly different.  If Schenn can find a way to stick on Tarasenko’s line regardless of position the potential fantasy fruits may be immense. Alongside his excellent hitting which they welcome with Ryan Reaves now gone, it is not out of question to see Schenn have a career year offensively. As stated earlier St. Louis is clearly going the youth route with the likes of Magnus Paajarvi, Dmitrij Jaskin, Oskar Sundqvist, and Ivan Barbashev, so you can rest assured that Schenn is expected to be a leader on this team and a top producer. Do not be hesitant to take Schenn in your drafts at a reasonable price regardless of playing with Tarasenko or not.  His consistency makes him a commodity to be had especially in multi-category leagues.

 

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