Wild West: West Coast Warning Signs

by chriskane on January 21, 2019

 

Last week we took a look at who in the West is gaining time both at all strengths and specifically on the power play. When players are adding time it is more likely they will be putting more stats on the board because they are increasing their opportunities to do so. This week we are looking at the opposite. Which players are trending down? Who is losing time and therefore may lose production as a result?

 

This table is the 15 players who have lost the most ice time over the last week. 

 

(The change in time on ice in this table is listed as a decimal rather than in straight minutes)

 

Name

Pos

Team

Δ TOI

KEVAN MILLER

D

BOS

-5.38

RYAN KESLER

C

ANA

-5.20

RYAN HARTMAN

R

NSH

-4.85

ERIC FEHR

C

MIN

-4.55

PAVEL BUCHNEVICH

R

NYR

-4.30

VICTOR HEDMAN

D

T.B

-4.28

CONNOR BROWN

R

TOR

-4.25

NIKOLAY GOLDOBIN

R

VAN

-4.07

RYAN MURRAY

D

CBJ

-4.02

MATT DUCHENE

C

OTT

-4.00

HENRI JOKIHARJU

D

CHI

-3.90

KEVIN FIALA

L

NSH

-3.77

NINO NIEDERREITER

R

CAR

-3.62

TOMAS NOSEK

L

VGK

-3.53

VINCE DUNN

D

STL

-3.48

 

Matt Duchene and Thomas Chabot: Don’t read too much into this drop for the moment. Both of these small sample sizes include their first games back from injury so might not be the best representation of how they will be used in the future.

 

Pavel Buchnevich: In December Buchnevich was getting a much more serious shot with the Rangers. He was seeing as many as 19 minutes a night. Most recently though he is maxing out around 12, and seeing most of his time with what appears to the the fourth line.

 

Nikolay Goldobin: Even before his injury Goldobin seemed to be on the downward trend. He was more commonly seeing ten to 12 minutes of ice, rather than the 15 to 20 from end of November early December.

 

Tomas Nosek: You may recall Nosek from our recent segment of risers, as he had a short rotation on the top power play and an increase in ice time. The last several games though be has dropped back to ten or 11 minutes on ice and no power play time. 

 

The below chart is players who have lost the largest percentage if their team’s power play time.

 

Name

Pos

Team

GP

Δ %PP

 

NOAH HANIFIN

D

CGY

3

-37.1

CALLE JARNKROK

C

NSH

3

-36.5

COLTON PARAYKO

D

STL

4

-36.1

MIKAEL BACKLUND

C

CGY

3

-34.1

KEVIN FIALA

L

NSH

3

-29.2

TY RATTIE

R

EDM

2

-29.1

VINCE DUNN

D

STL

4

-28.1

GUSTAV NYQUIST

R

DET

3

-27.1

BRAYDEN SCHENN

C

STL

4

-26.3

EVAN RODRIGUES

L

BUF

4

-25.1

 

Noah Hanifin: Hanifin was seeing somewhere between 35-50% of his team’s power play time. Then in five of his last six, he got no time at all.  On 1/19 he saw about 20 seconds, but if this is a trend that continues it will certainly hurt Hanifin's burgeoning value.

 

Vince Dunn, Colton Parayko: The St. Louis blue line is seeing the impact of Alex Pietrangelo’s return. Pietrangelo has taken back much of the power play duties, which will have the most immediate impact on Dunn, though he wasn’t running away with the job by any means.

 

Calle Jarnkrok, Kevin Fiala: Like above, these Nashville forwards are seeing a decline in their power play usage as players (mainly Viktor Arvidsson and Filip Forsberg) return from injury and are placed back in their regular power play roles.

 

 

Potential Streaming Pickups:

This week we will use a slightly different format. Given that the upcoming week is interrupted it might be more helpful to know what the schedule looks like. The following teams have two games (week highs) each.

  1. Arizona
  2. Colorado
  3. Minnesota
  4. Nashville
  5. San Jose
  6. St. Louis
  7. Las Vegas

 

If possible avoid players from Dallas and Winnipeg as they have by-weeks and play no games.

 

From the above teams with two games here are a few names to watch who might be available for a stream (stats are over the last two weeks):

  1. Conor Garland: six goals and 22 shots
  2. Craig Smith: three goals, one assist, and 14 shots

 

Last article’s recommendation:

 

Ondej Kase: Kase, and Anaheim as a whole, did not have a great week. Kase’s injury most hurt his managers this week, but he still has only one point is his last four..

 

Oskar Sundqvist: Sundqvist got the time this week, but only managed nine shots over the week.

 

Drop or Not:

 

Cam Fowler: To start the season Fowler had three goals, seven assists, for ten points in 19 games. Unfortunately a puck to the face changed that and he missed games from November 12th to January 6th. Fowler (and really the Ducks as a whole) haven’t been the same since his return. In his eight games back, Fowler has zero points and eight shots.

 

So is it time to cut bait with Fowler?

 

First let’s go with the positive. Since his return he has seen 50-75% of his teams power play time (about 2.5 minutes a night) and is seeing about 22-25 total minutes on ice a game. His power play time is mostly being logged with the top unit.

 

Now some bad news. He has eight shots in those eight games, and hasn’t exactly been filling the other peripheral categories either. Basically he isn’t helping you if he isn’t putting up points. His season long underlying numbers aren’t exactly promising either. If anything his personal, and team five-on-five shooting percentages are high, while his IPP is in the normal range. All of that implies that there aren’t really goals or chances happening on the ice that Fowler is not getting a part of where he normally would.

 

One other note here. Anaheim has scored 15 goals in the eight games that Fowler has been back for an average of 1.875 goals per game (not good). Their season long power play conversion rate is 14.9 (league average is 19.94). Anaheim as a whole could really stand to improve here. Again the bad news is that Anaheim’s current expected goal numbers are right around their current scoring rates, meaning they aren’t due for some puck luck, they will have to make some changes to improve. They are also (again) dealing with significant injuries. If players return, if they can work on that power play, or if they can improve their scoring, Fowler could see some benefit.

 

Until all of that happens though I am moving him from a 40ish point pace defenseman to a 30-35ish point pace guy until further notice.

 

 

 

Thanks for reading.