Ramblings: Perry vs. Lucic, Domi vs. Galchenyuk, Montreal vs. Ottawa (June 17)

by Ian Gooding on June 17, 2018
  • Hockey Rambling
  • Ramblings: Perry vs. Lucic, Domi vs. Galchenyuk, Montreal vs. Ottawa (June 17)


Perry vs. Lucic, Domi vs. Galchenyuk, Montreal vs. Ottawa

Two players that I’ve covered in recent Ramblings are Corey Perry and Milan Lucic, so it’s fitting that I’d receive a question from the Dobber Sports Facebook page from my last Ramblings about who would be better to own. I think it depends on the league.

See the first league below, which counts penalty minutes but not hits:
 

 

Yahoo Rank

G

A

+/-

PIM

PPP

SOG

Perry

132

17

32

-4

71

11

168

Lucic

220

10

24

-12

80

7

147

 

Lucic provides his share of penalty minutes, but so does Perry. Even though last season was Lucic’s worst since 2009-10, there is still a chance he can rebound from a sub-40-point season and a single-digit power-play-point total, either in Edmonton or somewhere else. The lack of power-play points was not related to lack of opportunity, as he was regularly used on the first-unit power play. In fact, Lucic went nearly three months without a single power-play point. Perry would clearly be the player I would go with in this league format, or any league format that emphasizes scoring.

But in this league that counts hits but not penalty minutes:
 

 

Yahoo Rank

G

A

+/-

PPP

SOG

HIT

BLK

Lucic

203

10

24

-12

7

147

254

25

Perry

238

17

32

-4

11

168

59

36


Perry is still stronger than Lucic in just about every category except for hits, where Lucic is better by a wide margin. In a roto league, is it better to own a player that is a little better than another in just about every category except for one, where the other player is a lot better? I guess it depends on your team needs. If no one else on your team provides a hit total that is at least above average, then I could understand the argument of owning Lucic. Otherwise, I would go against the overall rankings and still take Perry.

Of course, Lucic’s value should be considered very up in the air at the moment, considering that the Oilers seem to be attempting to trade him. There’s a lot yet to happen this offseason, so it’s too early to pinpoint exactly what his fantasy value would be.

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While I’m into player comparisons, let’s compare the two players involved in the hockey deal on Friday night – Alex Galchenyuk for Max Domi. Although the consensus of who won the deal seems to lean heavily toward Arizona, time will really tell. Montreal fans should have some hope in knowing that the final evaluation of a trade shouldn’t happen the day it is made.

One-for-one is actually my favorite type of deal in fantasy hockey. Simple and effective without being overly risky, since I’m not looking for a major shakeup most of the time. A win-win because I help my team and the other owner can help his or hers. So if this trade were made in a fantasy hockey league, who would win? I know you would say Galchenyuk because he had more points last season and also twice as many goals. Yet the two players are practically identical in career points-per-game (around 0.61 PTS/GP), so there’s a chance that this could be an even fantasy deal, right?

In this league it would be, based on last season’s totals:
 

 

Yahoo Rank

G

A

+/-

PIM

PPP

SOG

Galchenyuk

175

19

32

-31

22

24

213

Domi

173

9

36

-7

73

9

150


In spite of Galchenyuk’s scoring advantage and clear power-play points and shots advantage, there are two reasons why this is closer than you would think. 1) Penalty minutes are in Domi’s genes, as he has amassed at least 70 PIM in two of his three NHL seasons. 2) Galchenyuk’s plus/minus, which was tied for fourth-worst in the NHL (with coincidentally, a member of the Coyotes – Alex Goligoski). Galchenyuk’s defensive play was believed to be a reason that the Habs were eager to part with him, so this stat may not change much if the Coyotes don’t improve much in 2018-19.

Overall, I think both players will continue to be what we thought they were before the trade. The Coyotes seem more likely to use Galchenyuk at center than the Habs were in spite of already having several centers, for what that’s worth. You could argue that he was unlucky last season, shooting at only 8.9 percent, which would have resulted in nearly 30 goals had he shot closer to his career average of 12.4 percent.

Meanwhile, Domi sounded like he needed a change of scenery, which might come at the right time for the Canadiens, since he now enters his potential breakout fourth NHL season. These are both rebuilding teams (or at least supposed to be rebuilding), so it could simply be a matter of which player fits in better with his new team. For all we know, that player could be Domi just as well as it could be Galchenyuk.

In terms of general fantasy value, I’d pick Galchenyuk over Domi – just like the deal. But as I’ve said before, that may depend on the league format. Galchenyuk is ranked number 97 on Dobber’s Top 300 Keeper League Skaters, with Domi right behind at number 99. So as much fun as it is to blame Marc Bergevin, the difference between these players might not be as large as you think.

Some follow-up news on the Friday night trade: The Canadiens have signed Domi to a two-year, $6.3 million deal. Overall, the Habs save over $1 million per season in signing Domi to what amounts to a bridge deal. I have a feeling that Marc Bergevin isn’t done, whether you like it or not.

You can read Cam Robinson’s full fantasy breakdown of the trade here.

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A related question that I posted on Twitter last night:
 


I loved the reactions on Twitter, by the way. Have a look at them if you want a good laugh. Yes, it was meant to be a difficult question. It’s like trying to pick the lesser of two evils.

My thought before posting the question was that Montreal is the better-run organization (note how I am stating this positively here). Bergevin might be receiving the short end of the stick in the last few trades he has made, but can any of those trades be as bad as how the Matt Duchene trade might turn out? That could be a very high first-round pick that the Senators have to hand over to the Avalanche, among other assets. Then there’s the Hoffman/Karlsson situation. And the disfavor toward Eugene Melynk. The Sens’ problems are much greater and much more rotten.

To add to their growing list of problems, the Senators have also suspended assistant GM Randy Lee, two weeks after he was charged with harassment.

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Your Ilya Kovalchuk news of the day: The Blues have reportedly expressed interest (NHL.com).

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Don’t forget to check out Cam’s 2018 Draft Rankings. For my next Ramblings on Wednesday I plan to make my draft predictions (who is picked by what team), although I can tell you I will not be going 130 players deep! But I’ll put them out there to see how many right I get, beyond the seemingly obvious Rasmus Dahlin to Buffalo.

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For more fantasy hockey information, you can follow me on Twitter @Ian_Gooding.