0.10 (S.M.)

0.21 (N.B.)

0.56 (S.M.)

1.54 (N.B.)

0.30 (S.M.)

0.30 (N.B.)

1.86 (S.M.)

2.43 (N.B.)

0.09 (S.M.)

0.04 (N.B.)

6.34 (S.M.)

7.22 (N.B.)

Clearly Monahan is a drain on PIM; however, the fact that Bjugstad isn't even averaging seven FOW per game is just as bad, if not worse considering in Yahoo leagues he's eligible only as a center. Bjugstad's Hits are not only outstanding in general (within the top 50 among all forwards), but are more than triple what Monahan produces.

Otherwise, the players are pretty even, except when it comes to Shots, where Bjugstad has a big advantage and, as of March 8th, sat 27th among all NHL forwards. The fact that he shoots so much is a major asset and bodes very well for Bjugstad's future scoring, considering that 17 of the 26 forwards with more Shots than him this season had already scored 50+ points as of March 8th.

Luck-Based Metrics

Seeing this should put a big smile on the faces of poolies who own Monahan. That's because his two "luckiest" metrics as a rookie were 5×5 IPP and Personal Shooting Percentage, yet lo and behold he's posting barely higher numbers this season, making it less likely that he was/is unsustainably lucky.

But perhaps the most impressive piece of data for Monahan is his Offensive Zone Starting %, which ranks him in the bottom 25% (213th of 279) among the forwards who've played more than 50 games this season. What's so impressive about that you ask? How about the fact that there are zero forwards who've scored more points than him despite having a lower Offensive Zone Starting %. And the lowest Offensive Zone Starting % of anyone with more points than Monahan is Patrice Bergeron, with 46.0%. And after him, you'd have to go all the way up to Joe Thornton at 48.6%! Very impressive, especially for a guy who doesn't even turn 21 for five more months.

For Bjugstad, only his jump in 5×4 IPP really stands out. But I see that as more a reflection of his skill rather than unsustainable good luck. Simply put – better players will end up with a higher percentage of PP points for teams with a lousy PP, like Florida (26th in PP percentage at 15.5%). Plus, if the team's PP happens to improve to more middle of the road numbers, then Bjugstad's 5×4 IPP could shrink without a negative effect on his point output, so it's a no lose type of situation.

Ownership, Value and Remaining Schedule

In Yahoo leagues, both players are undesirably eligible only as a center, which is the deepest position in fantasy hockey and thus not ideal. Going into the season, Monahan was on the radar of more poolies, being drafted in Yahoo leagues on average as the 60th player with eligibility as a center, while Bjugstad wasn't even selected among the top 100. But as of now they're seen as closer in terms of perceived and actual value, with Bjugstad being owned in 34% of all Yahoo leagues and rated as the 38th best center, compared to 44% and 40th for Monahan.

Both Calgary and Florida have 16 games remaining, so neither player enjoys an imbalanced schedule edge for the rest of the regular season. And both are young enough that – barring injury – they should play every remaining game for their clubs.

The only question is whether their productive Ice Times would increase or decrease given that their teams are fighting for their playoff lives. Most likely neither one would see a reduction; however, if that was to happen, it might be to Bjugstad due to faceoffs and Florida having more veterans to lean on.

Who Wins?

If you read this column on a regular basis, you know I don't tend to make bold predictions about what might happen to a player. But with Monahan, I'd be remiss not to emphasize that the future looks incredibly bright – perhaps brighter than for any player I've profiled in the more than 18 months I've been writing this column. If you can get Monahan for a reasonable price in a keeper, do it – and I mean do it now. He's my bet for the NHL's (and fantasy's) next young breakout star.

Why do I think this? For a 20-year-old in his second NHL (and pro) season to be leading his team in Ice Time and scoring above a 55-point pace is pretty amazing, but even more so considering it's been achieved with such a low Offensive Zone Starting %, which can only go up from where it is now. All things considered, I think it's realistic to predict a huge breakout for Monahan next season, with him possibly threatening or perhaps exceeding the point per game mark. In terms of comparisons, we could be looking at Monahan having a third season at age 21 like John Tavares did in 2011-12, when he posted 81 points in 82 games during what was also his third campaign at that same age.

Monahan's only weakness (once his offensive zone starting % improves) is his lack of multi-cat prowess, particularly PIM, Shots and Hits, with the latter two being big strengths of Bjugstad. If you own Bjugstad in leagues that count either of those categories, then you're already seeing him pay nice dividends, as evidenced by him being rated higher than Monahan in Yahoo leagues overall. His points should come eventually, given how much he shoots. And when that happens, he could be an elite multi-cat forward.

If you're in a points only keeper and not likely to try and win it all next year, then it might be wise to target Bjugstad this summer, as although he likely won't top 60 points next season he should continue an upward trajectory, which in turn would lead to him costing more to obtain. But using the same logic, those of you in one year leagues should be careful not to overpay to get Bjugstad in your 2015-16 draft, as he might be a trendy "sleeper" pick and thus overvalued.