Sidney Crosby – Fantasy Impact

Dobber Sports

2011-09-07

sid

 

Sidney Crosby spoke in a press conference Wednesday for the first time since his ‘double-concussion’ back in early January. So what was said? Well, nothing…and everything. There is no single player in the NHL who has more of a ripple effect on fantasy hockey than Sid the Kid. So let’s take a look at the best-case scenario, the worst-case scenario, as well as analyze what was said by Crosby and his doctors.

 

Concussion specialist Dr. Collins stated that he knew “they were in for a long recovery” from the first time he saw Crosby, indicating that the symptoms that were exhibited immediately spoke volumes to him about the type and severity. So he is unsurprised that Crosby is still not 100 percet. The concussion is, however, a “manageable injury”, but they are “not going to make any mistakes in this case”.

Dr. Collins is “supremely confident” that Sid will make a full recovery. Sid was assessed yesterday and his state “is the best we’ve seen” and Collins is “very pleased with where he is at now”. They just need to get him reconditioned – and as we all expected, the specialist said that there is no timeline for this. When asked about introducing contact, Collins said – “not even close”. As for a timeline, Collins refused to say whether October 6 was possible or impossible. Didn’t want to go down any road that led to a hint of a timeline. There is no truth to the rumor of him going backstage, taking off his mask and revealing Gary Bettman.

The press conference then turned the attention to Dr. Ted Carrick. He described the evaluation process and got into specifics of what Crosby can do now. He seemed very upbeat and positive about the injury and I get the impression that when it is solved, it will be solved.

 

As for Crosby himself, he did have several interesting things to say.

 

1. Retirement has never crossed his mind.

2. He is very happy with his last three weeks (the term 90% and for some reason 89% was bandied about a lot).

3. When asked if there was a chance that he would never come back, he replied that there is a “very slight one, but I wouldn’t bet on it.” He is not preparing for that possibility at all.

4. He went over some of the worst symptoms that hit at times, ranging from migraines to having trouble watching the video with the rest of his team back in the spring.

5. The key question he was asked – is it more likely or more unlikely that he will play in the coming season: “Likely.” No hesitation.

 

The Pittsburgh Penguins camp begins on September 17. He won’t be ready for that, given that he is “not close” to contact and when he does take contact he is likely looking at two to three weeks of it before getting into a game. The season starts on October 6.

 

I don’t believe it is reasonable to think that Crosby plays more than 70 games in 2011-12. But I think 70 is possible. We’ll call that “best case”. In the fantasy guide, I have him down for 65 games. That’s just a safer bet. I also don’t think he plays zero games, given his answer of “Likely”. And he won’t bother coming back in March – why do that? So the worst case to me is 30 games. That’s a very big gap, and as I said – the ripple effect will be huge. Many players go from ” no fantasy value” to “decent fantasy value”…or from “decent fantasy value” to “star fantasy value”, and so forth. Here are my projections of the two scenarios (70 games on the left, 30 games on the right). The real result, I’m sure, will be somewhere in between.

 

Player

GP

Pts

Player

GP

Pts

Sidney Crosby

70

111

Evgeni Malkin

78

103

Evgeni Malkin

78

97

Jordan Staal

82

66

James Neal

78

66

James Neal

78

57

Kris Letang

81

66

Kris Letang

81

51

Jordan Staal

82

62

Chris Kunitz

71

50

Chris Kunitz

71

57

Sidney Crosby

30

📢 advertisement:

43

Steve Sullivan

63

45

Tyler Kennedy

71

42

Tyler Kennedy

71

37

Steve Sullivan

63

39

Eric Tangradi

58

30

Dustin Jeffrey

67

33

Paul Martin

76

29

Paul Martin

76

33

Dustin Jeffrey

60

25

Eric Tangradi

66

32

Marc Letestu

65

21

Marc Letestu

70

29

Nick Johnson

30

12

Nick Johnson

38

18

Fleury

40 wins

Fleury

36 wins

 

 

Malkin was at his best when Crosby was sidelined two/three years ago. While Letang, at the 41-game mark last year, was on pace for 72 points. Then Crosby went down and he ended up with 50. Letestu was fairly productive when there were injuries in the lineup – and this goes for all the younger players such as Jeffrey, Johnson and Tangradi. Meanwhile, with the incomplete power play, Martin may see some PP time without Crosby for 52 games. But he won’t see any with Crosby out for just 12 games.

 

Kennedy produced very well last season because he saw a lot of time on the power play. This won’t happen as much with Malkin back…but it won’t happen at all with Crosby back too. As for Sullivan – what a great fit for Crosby’s line. If he’s not on that line, however, his game really is on the decline.

 

In the DobberHockey Experts League, Ryan Ma drafted Crosby 11th overall. My pick was 13th and I would have taken him for sure. I realized at around Pick 8 or 9 that I would have drafted him then, as well. Any higher…and nope.

 

You draft these players hoping for the one scenario and if it comes to pass, you do well. If the other scenario comes to pass, you start getting down on yourself because your team isn’t performing. But in the end – nobody really knows which scenario will shake out. And that’s the fun of fantasy hockey. If you could find a computer program that spits out the precise projection, then how boring would this game be?

 

 

Leave A Comment

UPCOMING GAMES

Apr 16 - 19:04 MTL vs CAR
Apr 16 - 19:04 WPG vs ANA
Apr 16 - 19:04 N.J vs DET
Apr 16 - 20:04 NSH vs DAL
Apr 16 - 22:04 VAN vs VGK
Apr 16 - 22:04 S.J vs EDM

Starting Goalies

Top Skater Views

  Players Team
IVAN DEMIDOV MTL
MAX DOMI TOR
ADAM FANTILLI CBJ
FRANK NAZAR CHI
ALEXANDER NIKISHIN CAR

Top Goalie Profile Views

  Players Team
JET GREAVES CBJ
CALVIN PICKARD EDM
DARCY KUEMPER L.A
ANTHONY STOLARZ TOR
DUSTIN WOLF CGY

LINE COMBOS

  Frequency BUF Players
21.8 TAGE THOMPSON JIRI KULICH ZACH BENSON
19.6 JASON ZUCKER ALEX TUCH PEYTON KREBS
17.7 JACK QUINN JJ PETERKA RYAN MCLEOD

DobberHockey Podcasts

Keeping Karlsson: End-of-Season Beginnings, Vibesgoaliebord

Elan and Brian express their interest in players on the verge of playing their first NHL games, make some playoff predictions with no promises, and do a vibes-based draft for goalies they are willing to commit to rostering for the entirety of the next NHL season.

Fantasy Hockey Life: X Gamers and Silly Season

Jesse and Victor talk about up and coming prospects Michael Hage, Berkly Catton, and Nick Lardis. We feature polls from NHL Rank King Mason Black.In the second half Jesse asks if hockey has become as crazy as basketball for late season volatility. Lastly we talk about fantasy playoff heroes Kiefer Sherwood, Dylan Holloway, and Drake […]

Keeping Karlsson: Gr8 V16es

Elan and Brian celebrate two legends with massive accomplishments today: Alex Ovechkin, the NHL’s new goal scoring record holder, and Ian F, the newly crowned KKUPFL Ultimate Champion and undisputed best fantasy hockey manager in the world. You decide which one matters more.

Fantasy Hockey Life: Tidy Commissioner Roundtable

Our TIDY commish team joins the show for a roundtable to look back on a thrilling season. Have a listen! Our show is part of the Dobber Podcast Network and sponsored by Fantrax.com. Email fantasyhockeylife@gmail.com and ask to join our free discord. Join our Patreon at Patreon.com/fantasyhockeylife for rankings, bonus podcasts, in-depth prospect reports with […]

FIND US ON FACEBOOK

📢 advertisement: