Mike Smith – Dr. Jekyll & Mr. Hyde
Doran Libin
2015-06-22
Depending on your league settings, Mike Smith could provide value next year
If the Coyotes had not been 'tanking' there is a good chance Mike Smith would have, at least temporarily, lost his job to Devan Dubnyk. Instead Dubnyk was traded to Minnesota and Mike Smith kept his job, which given how bad the Coyotes should be next year does not look like a huge prize. Obviously everyone should abandon ship on Mike Smith and sell immediately.
What if Mike Smith was not nearly as bad as his numbers look? What if after everyone stopped paying attention, and Devan Dubnyk left town, Mike Smith turned his season around? That might provide a good enough reason to hold onto Mike Smith or even to go against the grain and pick up Mike Smith.
Season in review
Smith had the eleventh worst save percentage (90.43%) this season amongst goalies who played at least 1,000 minutes. He also had the eleventh worst save percentage (80.27%) on shots from high danger areas. He did this while facing 33.03 shots per 60 minutes played, and the fourth most shots overall despite playing a minimum of seven fewer games than the three goalies ahead of him. His overall numbers however do not tell the whole the story.
Mike Smith is not the first goalie whose career Sean Burke has had a hand in rejuvenating. Poolies might remember Ilya Bryzgalov from his days in Phoenix as a stellar goalie that no one knew was insane. Bryzgalov posted a 92% save percentage in both seasons with the Coyotes, under Burke, from 2009 to 2011. Coyotes' goalies under Burke are tied for the fifth best save percentage in the league over the last six years with Burke. By staying in the top five for save percentage they are able to allow a ton of shots and not look like a defensive sieve.
Bryzgalov did not fall off a cliff immediately upon leaving Burke's tutelage. During both his first season in Philadelphia and the season he split between Edmonton and Minnesota he posted save percentages over 92%. Bryzgalov's problems look to be mental as much as anything to do with his play. That being the case there is not a lot in Bryzgalov's post-Burke numbers that should be cause for worry going forward with Smith. If anything the success that Dubnyk experienced in Minnesota after leaving Arizona should be encouraging.
The Tippett Point
Burke may be leaving but defensive guru Dave Tippett will be staying in Arizona. Tippett has always found a way to get the most of his teams defensively. In Dallas he did it through elite shot suppression, and as such did not have to rely on a high save percentage. In Arizona, Tippett's teams have allowed five more shots per 60 minutes than his Dallas teams but the save percentage has been higher. However the team has allowed more goals as they give up enough shots to more than compensate for the higher save percentage. With a young and inexperienced team it is unlikely that Tippett will be able to return to his elite shot suppression ways, meaning that there should continue to be a lot of shots for Smith.
Looking Forward
When Smith has been at his best he has had quality starts in 55% of his games. That should be tough for Smith next year behind what figures to be a porous Coyotes defense. The good news is that Smith should face a lot of shots next year, in the neighbourhood of 32 per game based on the last 28 games of this season. The best case for Smith could be an average Roberto Luongo season from his first go around with the Panthers. That means around 20 wins while averaging over 30 saves per game, based on Mike Smith once again being a league average goalie. In leagues that reward saves as much as wins he should make a good second option. In leagues where goalie points depend on wins, or where points are subtracted for goals against, stay away. Smith will allow a lot of goals based solely on the number of shots he is due to face, and as such will not win much as the Coyotes are not going to score a ton of goals.
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