Ramblings: Oilers Drag Out a Game Six; Columbus Coaching Change; Hronek and Perunovich Sign & More (Jun 19)

Alexander MacLean

2024-06-19

The Edmonton Oilers took game five to drag the Florida Panthers back to Alberta. The Panthers still have two chances to close out this series, but it really has the feeling of one that's going to seven. I'm not much into betting, but if I had to wager (responsibly) on game six, my money would be with the Oilers.

Connor McDavid (four points) and Evan Bouchard (three) led the way for the Oilers, which for McDavid meant passing the 40-point plateau with his 42nd point in 23 games. He's ridiculous, and it would be tough to argue against him for the Conn Smythe (playoff MVP) regardless of how this series now ends.

Evan Rodrigues continued his magic with another goal. He's been a staple for me with the Tim's picks in the finals, and has been paying off. With Sam Reinhart and Vladimir Tarasenko possibly both off to bigger paychecks next season, Rodrigues could stand to improve on his 40-point pace in 15 minutes of ice time per game. Matthew Tkachuk also picked up two points for the Panthers.

The takeaways from this series across the NHL are going to be fascinating as teams are always finding incorrect extrapolations to try and copy. One team has been built with a lot of focus on buying the right players and maximizing assets/opportunity, while the other has been built around two pillars and trying to find the right recipe to turn them into a champion.

Brandon Montour, Sam Reinhart, Adam Henrique and Vladimir Tarasenko are going to be four of the most sought-after free agents, bringing experience and talent. They have probably each added $1 million to their cap hit next year by making the finals.

Despite's last night's showing of four goals on 23 shots, this playoff run may also have bought Sergei Bobrovsky one more year with the team, before they inevitably try to move his contract and pass the torch to Spencer Knight – and after his excellent year at the AHL level, he deserves a fair shot.

I won't again get roped into believing Connor Brown is a real fantasy asset in the regular season, but an NHL team is going to give him a contract for last night's opening goal on its own.

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Pascal Vincent was let go by the Columbus Blue Jackets on Monday after only holding the head coach tile for one season.

It's tough to peg Jonny Gaudreau and where he might fall season by season. Zach Werenski could be in line for a bit of a scoring dip though, as he was played heavily by Vincent and his scoring levels seem to follow his ice time. It likely won't be a huge drop, but I would expect closer to 55 points than the 67-point-pace from this past year.

Add onto that, the new coach (hopefully someone who is willing to play younger players) is likely going to have at least one of David Jiricek and Denton Mateychuk on the roster next season, if not both. That provides a lot more options on offence, and maybe a bit of need for sheltering the younger players too.

Looking at the rest of the skater group, the young Russians (Dmitri Voronkov, Kirill Marchenko, and Yegor Chinakov) will have to continue to earn the second line minutes mainly in the offensive zone that they were given last year. Meanwhile, Adam Fantilli, Jake Bean, Cole Sillinger, Adam Boqvist, Kent Johnson and Alex Nylander will also need to battle for space. This is a young team with another new coach, and more replacements coming up the pipeline. Nothing is really written in stone.

The goalie split is going to be interesting to see too, but there could be some movement around Elvis Merzlikins before the season, so it's still a little too early to speculate on that one.

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It sounds like a Buffalo buyout of Jeff Skinner might be a real possibility.

Very interesting for Buffalo's offence, where there are questions on how all the mouths can be fed within one team. This would help out wingers like J.J. Peterka and Jack Quinn, as well as possibly opening a roster spot for one of the young guys (Jiri Kulich, Noah Ostlund, Isak Rosen).

On Skinner's end, he likely isn't getting a better spot than from October 2022 to the end of 2023 while on a line with Tage Thompson and Alex Tuch. Unfortunately, Thompson's injury spelled the end to their time together as the calendar flipped to 2024, and Skinner toiled on a much less productive third line after that point. He's likely a middle-six player wherever he ends up, producing closer to this past season's 51-point-pace rather than the 85-point-pace from the year before.

In cap leagues, his value shoots up, because he might just be a $3 million winger on the open market, and with a buyout he would be making $2.5 million the next six years anyways.

Barclay Goodrow was also placed on waivers yesterday and could be a buyout candidate as well with three years left at an AAV of ~$3.6 million.

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Scott Perunovich signed a one-year, $1.15 million deal in St. Louis. If Torey Krug gets bought out then Perunovich would have some serious fantasy value, but while he remains stuck behind Krug the likelihood of hitting his upside remains limited.

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The bigger signing yesterday was the extension for Filip Hronek, who got $7.25 million for each of the next eight seasons.

This was my quick take on him in my FA thread, and all the VAN fans were quick to point out that Hronek was asking for an $8M AAV. Sounds like they found a happy medium, especially with the term in a rising cap era helping with the value on the tail end.

Getting Hronek locked up is great news for Quinn Hughes and his fantasy owners.

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Rick Roos is looking for a couple more mailbag questions, and you know that no one does a deeper dive for your queries than Rick does. Get those offseason conundrums in early before you get stuck at the back of the mailbag line.

To submit a question you can either private message "rizzeedizzee" via the DobberHockey Forums or, instead, send an email to [email protected] with "Roos Mailbag" as the subject line.

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To those of you picking second in rookie drafts this summer:

This should allay any questions you may have had on him.

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Sticking with the early part of the draft, the first bit of intrigue may be where Ivan Demidov goes, but the second could very well be what happens at the Utah selection. It seems like there is a bit of a sense of which direction each team in the top-five is leaning, but not Utah. If they keep the pick, their selection could be any number of players within the top-12 grouping, but recent rumour is that they may look to move the pick. It would be a big swing for the first year that the city has a team. 

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Great to see a new name taking over a GM role, and Eric Tulsky certainly has earned it. It's an impressive resume including nanotechnology research, DNA sequencing, over two-dozen patents, and then beginning his work in the hockey sphere as a data analyst in the early 2010s.

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See you next Wednesday, and if you want to keep up with it you can find me on Twitter/X here, or BlueSky here if you have any fantasy hockey questions or comments.

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