Welcome back to Forum Buzz, where I peruse the DobberHockey Forums and weigh in on active, heavily debated, or otherwise relevant recent threads, reminding folks just how great a resource the Forums are. Nearly anything might be covered here, other than trades and signings, which usually get their own separate write-ups on the main site and are also normally covered in the next day’s Ramblings, or questions that are specific to salary cap issues, which is the domain of the weekly Capped column. To access the specific forum thread on which a question is based, click on the “Topic” for that question.

As is now becoming tradition, I'll start the column with a nod to the "Who am I?" thread in the Forums where someone thinks of a real-life hockey player or persona, who can be from the past or present, male or female, in the NHL or not, and they give clues to help people guess who it is. You get to enter one guess per clue, and if you guess correctly you think of the next player, so it just keeps going. For your enjoyment, here is a "Who am I?" for this month. See how many clues it takes for you to guess who I am.

CLUE #1 – I'm a retired forward born in Europe

CLUE #2 – I was a full time NHLer as a teen

CLUE #3 – For my career, I finished with goal and assist totals that were within five of each other

CLUE #4 – I represented my home country 14 times in international competition, but never on a team that won a medal

CLUE #5 – I was an eight time 20+ goal scorer, but never had a 30+ goal season

CLUE #6 – After playing for just two teams in my first 12 NHL seasons, I played for a combined four in my last two NHL campaigns

CLUE #7 – I was involved in one of the biggest trades of the past 20 years, with a future first ballot hall of famer going the other direction

CLUE #8 – I was at one time the all-time leading NHL scorer for players who were born in my home country, but have since been surpassed by one of the biggest stars in the NHL today

CLUE #9 – I was a first round pick in the 1990s

CLUE #10 – My home country is Germany

Hopefully you got it. Check the end of the column to confirm, or, if not, to find out who it is. Now onto the regularly scheduled Forum Buzz programming.

Topic #1 – In a 16 team, keep 10, H2H Weekly Cap ($81.5M) league, with starting line-ups of 3C, 3LW, 3RW, 4D, 1G and categories of G (6 for F, 8 for D), A (5 for F, 6 for D), +/- (1), GWG (2), Shootout G (1), Shootout GWG (1), Goalie Win (12), GA (-1). SVs (0.25), Shutout (8), a team with the following roster (salaries, if known, denoted) intends to keep Hischier, MacKinnon, Marchand, Fiala, Guenther, Josi, Toews, Morrissey, Sehsterkin, and Lindholm, but has been offered Connor McDavid for MacKinnon and Shesterkin. Should they accept the deal?
C: Tommy Novak 0,75M, Nico Hischier 7,25M, Nathan MacKinnon 12,6M,
LW: Brad Marchand 6,125M, Alex Ovechkin 9,5M, Alex Nylander 0,775M
RW: Eeli Tolvanen, Kevin Fiala 7,79M, Dylan Guenther 0,89M
D: Adam Boqvist 2,6M, Roman Josi 9,06M, Devon Toews 4,1M, Josh Morrissey 6,25M
G: Igor Shesterkin 5,67M
Bench: Connor Zary 0,86M, Joel Farabee 5M, Denton Mateychuk 0,92M, Bobby Brink 0,93M, Elias Lindholm, Alexander Holtz 0,89M, Tony DeAngelo 1,675M
IR: Gabriel Landeskog 7M, Tomas Hertl 8,14M

It is not often that a team is offered McDavid in trade and shouldn't immediately accept. But in this case, it's definitely a deal to ponder.

Of the three, only MacKinnon is signed long term, with Shesterkin set to get a new deal before 2025-26, and McDavid before 2026-27. Most likely the increase that Shesterkin will receive will be more, percentagewise if not overall, than what McDavid will be set to earn, so MacKinnon being signed longer term is not as big of a benefit as it could be. On the other hand, although MacKinnon was drafted two seasons earlier than McDavid, they're only about 18 months apart in age, so there is not a concern of one breaking down much before the other.

Looking at the categories, a higher weight for goals does favor MacKinnon, as aside from the 2022-23 season McDavid has focused more on assists. The added benefit for goals is small, as is the amount for GWGs. Looking at Shesterkin with these categories, although he likely won't be among the top five in games played, his winning percentage is quite high. He also is a safe bet for Shutouts at a rate at or above most other goalies. Although in a given year he might not always be the very best goalie to own, he still strikes me as the safest bet among all NHL netminders to always be well above average, making him extremely valuable in a day and age when it is tougher and tougher to roster a goalie and know he'll get the job done.

If this was two years ago, before Mac took things to another level in 2022-23, and yet another level in 2023-24, I think it's a done deal. But with the gap between Mac and McDavid being a lot smaller now, and having to pay the extra cost of one of the few truly dependable NHL goalies in Shesterkin, I believe this is the extremely rare case where I'd decline a trade offer for McDavid.

Topic #2 – In a H2H Points dynasty league with categories of G, A, FOW, BLK, HIT, HT, +/-, PT, SOG, PPP, SHP, GWG, GA, L, SV, SHO, W, a team has been Kyle Connor, Pyotr Kochetkov, and Brennan Othmann for Carter Verhaeghe and Ilya Sorokin. Is it a deal worth making?

For Connor, I believe we have reached the point where we must disregard his 2021-22 output, as he has not come close to replicating it. Also, his overall TOI trending down is not helping matters for him. In truth, Verhaeghe is arguably a better own, as he is on an upward trajectory in terms of scoring and TOI, yet still might not be being maxed out, plus Florida could be a perennial powerhouse, creating a rising tide to will lift Verhaeghe's boat. Their peripherals also are pretty close, but if anything Verhaeghe would have a slight edge.

As for the goalies, Kochetkov has lure in that by the end of 2023-24 he was splitting time with Frederick Andersen, who is only signed through 2024-25. Presumably Kochetkov becomes to the Canes what Jeremy Swayman is to Boston. Carolina has also been one of the most consistently excellent teams of the past handful of seasons, and seemingly poised to continue to do well, making Kochetkov a goalie one would want to own.

Then there's Sorokin, who looked like he was a superstar in the making until he came back to earth this season. Admittedly, his team did not do him any favors, as he faced more SOG than any goalie, and despite a GAA north of 3.00 his SV% was nearly 91% and his GSAA still was in double digits. Patrick Roy did lean on his familiar face of Semyon Varlamov; however, that was before Sorokin's huge deal kicked in this season, and it would be a stretch to think that New York would not have Sorokin be reanointed a true #1 given his salary.

Am I not considering Othmann? No, I am; I just feel like he doesn't tilt the scales enough to change how the deal should be assessed based on the four principal players. In the end, I think the upward trend of Verhaeghe, which still could viably continue, the increasing likelihood of Connor's 2021-22 being an outlier, and Sorokin being previously so good and about to be so highly paid, I think this is not a deal I'd accept.

Topic #3 – In a points only keeper, who's the better own, Wyatt Johnston or Trevor Zegras?

No question 2023-24 was a season to forget for Zegras. Still, we can't ignore that by age 21 he had two seasons of 23+ goals and 0.8+ points per game, with the other centers who've done so at least twice by age 21 and dating back to 2000-01 being Sidney Crosby, Auston Matthews, Steven Stamkos, Jonathan Toews, Jack Hughes, Elias Pettersson, Connor McDavid, Jack Eichel, John Tavares, Evgeni Malkin, and Anze Kopitar. Suffice it to say, this is quite fine company in which to find oneself, as there is not a single player who didn't thrive, with the "worst" of them being Kopitar, Toews and Tavares, whose careers I think all Zegras owners would willingly agree for him to replicate.

Johnston is no slouch though. By averaging three SOG and over 0.8 points per game in 10+ playoff games, he joined a list of tjust hree other forwards who met those criteria in one of their first two seasons and dating back to 2000-01: Evgeni Malkin, Eric Staal, and Zach Parise. Looking at the regular season, among players who, again dating back to 2000-01 and in at least one of their first two seasons, had 30 goals and 30+ assists while potting fewer than five PPGs, as Johnston did in 2023-24, we get Auston Matthews, Brayden Point, Connor McDavid, and Michael Grabner. Yes, seeing Grabner there is not ideal; however, the other three names more than make up for his presence.

In Johnston, you also have a player who ended the regular season scorching, with 22 points in his last 19 games, and that was despite taking the ice most often with Jamie Benn and Logan Stankoven. That shows Johnston was not benefitting from playing alongside Dallas' best. On top of that, Johnston's IPP was 78.5%, and a mere eight of his 33 assists were secondary. And although Zegras has fared well, his IPPs and secondary assists are not in that stratosphere.

One thing to consider is the acquisition cost. Right now, Johnston's value is sky high, what with him shining in the playoff on top of his regular season standout performance. On the other hand, Zegras' value might never be lower. Thus, the cost to obtain Zegras, whether by trade or in draft, might be far enough below that of Johnston so as to make Zegras the more worthwhile player to obtain. If you already own both, however, I think it would be proper to value Johnston higher, but by the same token to try and be patient with Zegras. If you can only keep one of them though, it's Johnston.

Topic #4 – In a 16 team dynasty league with FOW a category, a GM was offered Mitch Marner and Mathew Barzal for William Nylander and Mark Scheifele. Should they take the deal?

Let's start with whether (and, if so, to what extent) FOW matter. Scheifele is the only one who takes any draws, and seems to be taking more and more as he ages, with nearly ten FOW per game last season, placing him just outside the top 30 in that category. Of those in front of him, half should score less, him, making this more consequential that it would seem.

Still Scheifele is four years older than Marner or Barzal, and Nylander is a year older than each of the two. The Marner Barzal side of the deal wins on youth for sure. But Scheifele's ability to be consistently very good but not great bodes well for him to continue at a similar pace, since he is essentially taking a page from the playbooks of Anze Kopitar and John Tavares. Although Cole Perfetti looms, Scheifele should keep his first line, PP1 gig for at least this season and next, allowing poolies to pencil him in for about 80 points.

Nylander has gone from just a 68 point pace in 2020-21, to a 98 point pace last season. But his season to season progression makes sense on paper, as he's gained over 3:00 of overall TOI, a minute of which has come in the form of man advantage minutes, plus his SOG rate has risen by 50%, from 2.6 in 2020-21 to 3.9 in 2023-24. Yet all the while his SH% has been within his norms and his PPPts have been fairly consistent. Simply put, he's gotten better, and is the real deal.

But what if Marner leaves the Leafs? Will that cut against Nylander's production? Maybe not, as although Marner was on the ice for all but four of Nylanders 35 PPPts, the same was not the case at even strength, with Marner out there when Nylander tallied only ten of his 50 ES points, or just 20%. Therefore, although it is possible if Marner leaves that Toronto's vaunted PP will be less potent, Nylander might not do much worse, as he could get a higher share of points, plus Toronto should be able to put out there someone who, although certainly a step down, is nevertheless worthy of a PP1 spot.

As for Marner, this is a player who has never – not even once – had an overall IPP less than 70%, and that was despite always playing with the best of the best on Toronto. If Marner does get traded it's all but assured he'll go to a team with less firepower, but it also stands to reason he'd grab an even higher share of points, for, if anything, a small overall drop in scoring. Marner's reduction in SOG rate is notable; however, the difference looks to be him becoming merely a 100-point player, versus 110 points. He's now just superb instead of truly outstanding. Wherever he goes, if indeed he leaves, he should not see any less TOI overall or on the PP, as a team trading for him knows what makes him shine.

Barzal is somewhat of the wild card. Despite a career best in SOG rate and overall TOI this past season, he only was able to rise to exactly point per game output, or a lower rate than he had as rookie. And his PP time actually dipped a bit. Also, he did not thrive under Patrick Roy, as he went from 45 points in his first 42 games, to 35 in his final 38 contests. But he saw more TOI overall, and, with that, should come more points. Like Marner, Barzal has never fallen below 70% IPP; however, in his case it was often while he was on lines with far less talented players, making it less significant. Barzal's spot on his team is set in stone, as given New York's other options Barzal should continue to be looked upon as a first liner and PP1 staple. The issue is if Barzal couldn't rise to better than a point per game despite a full season with Bo Horvat, and under Patrick Roy, is there hope he ever can? Barzal is still very much in his prime; but I'd say that many – myself included – thought he'd do more in 2023-24.

Looking at this as a whole, amazingly the key piece to the deal seems to be Nylander. He's fully arrived and still could improve, even if Marner leaves. If Marner does go elsewhere, his stats shouldn't crater but could take a hit, especially if he doesn't get as much TOI. Scheifele is a steady eddie and take tons of faceoffs, while Barzal is perhaps not going to rise to the level we all though he might. Although this is not an unfair deal on its face, it's also not one I'd make.

Topic #5 – In a 13 team Cap league (with salaries being those of the prior season) with 30 player rosters and 12F, 7D, 2G starting, and categories of G, A, +/-, W (2), OTL, SO (3), and where either 7F, 5D, 1G or 6F, 5D, 2G can be kept priot to the league's expansion draft, the GM intends to keep both Linus Ullmark and Igor Shesterkin, meaning it can keep six of the following forwards: Vincent Trocheck, Martin Necas, J.T. Miller, Jared McCann, Troy Terry, Pierre Engvall, Mika Zibanajed, Ilya Mikhehev, Yanni Gourde, Brandon Hagel, Elias Pettersson, Jeff Skinner, and Alexander Holtz. They are leaning toward Pettersson, Miller, Zibanejad and Hagel, but can't decide on the final two.

First off, given the events of free agency, I think Hagel is out, as Jake Guentzel will likely slot into his coveted top line spot. And with Hagel already not on PP1, his value could plummet. As for the other three, Miller and Pettersson are definitely, but Zibs is not a lock for me. More likely than not he does make the cut; however, let's make sure.

Skinner went from being bought out, to an inexpensive top sixer in Edmonton. He has little to no chance of making inroads to PP1; but playing alongside Connor McDavid and/or Leon Draisaitl is a huge lure. At that price, and with that home run potential, he gets a spot.

I'd also put Trocheck above Zibanejad, as Trocheck is a full year younger and produced better this past season than Zibs. The concern is Trocheck's play was elevated by Artemi Panarin, who can leave as a UFA after this coming season. Still, they meshed so well, and Trocheck is for sure going to be back on PP1, that I think he's a keep.

That leaves two more spots, if two goalies are kept. Ullmark is iffy with these categories, and will be looking for a raise next summer. Plus, after he took a step back in 2023-24 it did beg the question as to whether the Bs made him look better. So like Zibs, he too is a maybe.

Necas is someone I'm inclined to keep, as either he stays in Carolina, where he will be paid more and thus get played more, or he does indeed get traded, after which he should get heaps more ice time overall and on the PP. So he makes my list.

That leaves one spot, either for Zibs, Ullmark, or someone else. Holtz is super cheap and should get a top six spot given where things stand in Vegas. But can a team really justify keeping him over Zibs or Ullmark? Maybe if Holtz had shown a bit more to fuel optimism, or this was after we see what he does in preseason. If a decision has to be made now, he's a tough omit.

The final spot, if it were me, would be Zibanejad. The Rangers were the best team in all of hockey last season and the lure of locking in three key keepers on that team is huge. Ullmark might not fare that well in Ottawa, whether due to his own shortcomings or the Sens still not able to gel as a team. The final list is Shesterkin, Trocheck, Zibanejad, Pettersson, Miller, and Skinner.

Topic #6 – In a 12 team weekly H2H (daily roster), keep 10 (plus all farm) league with categories of G, A, PPPP, SHP, GWG, SOG, +/-, PIM, W, SV%, GAA, SO, who are the ten keeps from a roster consisting of the following players? The GM is leaning toward Hischier, Ehlers, Bratt, Laine,

Caufield, Toews, Chychrun, Sergachev, Kuemper, Lindgren.

C: Dylan Strome, Nico Hischier, Adam Henrique, Evgeni Kuznetsov, Alex Newhook
LW: Nicolaj Ehlers, David Perron, Patrik Laine
RW: Jesper Bratt, Mikael Granlund, Cole Caufield
D: John Carlson, Devon Toews, Jakub Chychrun, Colton Parayko, Mikhail Sergachev
G: Darcy Kuemper, Semyon Varlamov, James Reimer, Charlie Lindgren

With 120 players being kept, plus farm players, nothing against the person who posted this, but I don't see a path toward this team being in the mix to win the league. Given that, the question becomes not necessarily who are the "right" keeps, but which keeps make the most sense with en eye toward righting this team's ship.

Only Caufield is young and a build around. Bratt is not old by any means, but he could be starting to slow once this team is back in the thick of it. Same with Sergachev, Hischier, and Ehlers. I'd keep all four of them though, probably for the entire season, and see how things pan out, either trading them this time next year or further down the road.

Some keeps should be made with the purpose of selling sooner rather than later. Kuemper, for example, fits this bill perfectly, as he's older but should be walking into a situation in LA where he might be able to play well. If that happens, trade him and don't give it a second thought.

Granlund also should be keep with an eye toward selling this season, as although he will likely continue to get great deployment in San Jose, the time will come fairly soon where he will be pushed aside more in favor of their young players. If he is not traded soon enough, his value could plummet.

Strome has Pierre-Luc Dubois to contend with, but I think PLD is not going to work out well, while Strome made scoring rate gains last season despite Washington's offense starting to slow. But Strome's value can't really get much higher, and he's not young either, so he is a good candidate to trade, although maybe during this season, but perhaps not.

Toews also is a great keeper with an eye toward being traded. His huge scoring outburst two seasons ago is still fresh enough on the minds of most GMs, who also realize Toews is glued to Cale Makar at even strength. But as can be seen from the past two seasons, Toews is not the player he showed in 2021-22, making him ideal to trade ASAP, before other GMs grasp that he's not capable of rising back to 2021-22 levels.

The tough omits are Carlson and Chychrun, but they're likely to cannibalize each other's scoring, hurting their values in the process. Lindgren also might not be the true #1 in Washington now either, with the arrival of Logan Thompson. Patrik Laine has home run potential, but just as easily could continue to sputter.

The final list of keepers are Caufield (hold), Bratt, Sergachev, Hischier, Ehlers (hold until likely at least this time next season), and Granlund, Strome, and Toews, each of whom should be traded at some point before the end of 2024-25. If goalies are truly coveted though, a case could be made to keep Lindgren over one of the three, probably Granlund, since I think other GMs will be more skeptical with regard to his ability to continue to produce.

Topic #7 – For points only, how would the following players rank for 2024-25, and, if different, for their career: Philipp Kurashev, Jake Neighbors, Matthew Poitras, Dmitri Voronkov?

Let's start with Neighbours. His 27-goal, 38-point season is an outlier; however, there are a few comparables. Dating back to 1990-91, four other wingers scored 25+ goals but fewer than 40 points within their first three NHL seasons, those being Johan Franzen, Miroslav Satan, Cole Caufield, and Brian Savage. Of them, Frazen and Savage are not the best comparisons since they did so at age 28 and 24 respectively. But Caufield and Satan were both 22, which is much closer to Neighbours' hockey age of 21 from last season. So in all, while of course this kind of data is not predictive per se, it is good to see for Neighbors in the near and short term.

Kurashev ended 2023-24 with 20 points in his last 20 games. But Chicago now has in its midst the likes of Tyler Bertuzzi, Teuvo Teravainen, Ilya Mikheyev, and Craig Smith, plus still Taylor Hall. There is a universe in which Kurashev is off PP1, plus will not skate with Connor Bedard at even strength. And if neither of those things occurs, coming even close to the level of success he had at the end of 2023-24 would be nearly impossible to envision.

Poitras now has yet another center – in Elias Lindholm – to bypass for top six time. And the Bs will likely take their time with him, as he is their future. The issue though is by the time the team is ready to hand him the reins, how good will they still be?

Voronkov acquitted himself quite well to the NHL, although as a 23-year-old rookie he should have been expected to hit the ground running. Columbus did bring in Sean Monahan, who will presumably have the inside track to the top line center gig. But it was not long ago Monahan was struggling mightily, plus although Columbus struggled in 2023-24, they have a pretty decent crop of younger forwards. Also, recently there was the success of Tage Thompson and longer ago Mats Sundin as larger centers like Voronkov, there have also been a number of larger frame centers whose careers did not live up to expectations due to frequent injuries, so that has to be a consideration,

For 2024-25, Neighbors is likely the safest bet, although Kurashev still has home run potential. And long term it should be Kurashev who ultimately gets a spot with Bedard, so I think he has the best future outlook. Poitras seems very talented, but he likely will not have much impact this season or perhaps even another couple, plus once he is ready to step up, it's not clear who'll be there as his supporting cast. Voronkov is a safe pick to do well, but also might offer the least in terms of future dividends.

Overall, I'm going Neighbors for 2024-25, Kurashev for the long haul.

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ANSWER TO WHO THE PLAYER IS…………..Marco Sturm!

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Questions for Mailbag column needed

The upcoming edition of my monthly mailbag still has room for more questions, which you can send me by either private messaging “rizzeedizzee” via the DobberHockey Forums, or emailing [email protected] with “Roos Mailbag” as the subject line.