Ramblings: Looking for Deeper Values in Fantasy Drafts in Greig, Dorofeyev, Perunovich, and More – July 18

Michael Clifford

2024-07-18

In Tuesday's Ramblings, I offered some guesses at players that I think will be undervalued when it comes draft time in September. They were more high-end options like Buffalo's JJ Peterka, Columbus's Kirill Marchenko, and Calgary's Mackenzie Weegar. Today we're going to dig deeper and look for values further down the list. As always, data is from Natural Stat Trick or Frozen Tools unless otherwise indicated.

Ridly Greig

When looking at Ottawa's forward mix, there are nine defined forwards that should all be on the top three lines in some order. While Greig looks destined for the third line, we are just a season removed from Mathieu Joseph being a second-line regular on the left side. It isn't far-fetched to see Greig fill a similar role if they move him to the wing, and he's definitely someone that can help open space in the offensive zone with his forechecking. He will probably get some secondary power play time, too, and can push for 150 hits. If he can be a 20-goal, 20-assist guy with around 150 hits, that is plenty of multi-cat value.

Warren Foegele

To be sure, leaving Edmonton and the wing of both Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl is a downgrade for Foegele. One of the interesting things about him going to Los Angeles, though, is that if the Kings decide to run Anze Kopitar, Quinton Byfield, and Phillip Danault as their top-3 centres, Foegele will get a productive centre to play with regardless. On top of that, the Kings are a team that should, at worst, have a 66/33 split for their power play units. Last season, Edmonton's top PP unit earned 75% of the time, so Foegele may get a bigger power play role. He has four power play points in the last three years, and that number could double with the Kings in one season, which would help outweigh the downgrade in even strength line mates.

Tommy Novak

For reference, over the last two seasons, Novak has the same assist rate at 5-on-5 as Kevin Fiala, and higher than names like Artemi Panarin and Tim Stutzle. When we look at Nashville's new roster, with the additions of Steven Stamkos and Jonathan Marchessault, there is a need at centre that Novak can fill. Perhaps the team uses Stamkos in the middle, but at this stage of his career, that feels like a mis-use of his talents. I would be willing to bet that Novak spends a large portion of the season as the team's second-line centre in a sheltered role, so despite losing some power play priority, he'll have much better line mates at even strength. His real problem is he doesn't shoot or hit much, and that really caps his value in multi-cat formats.

Jack Drury

With Evgeny Kuznetsov being bought out, Carolina now has Sebastian Aho, Jesperi Kotkaniemi, Jordan Staal, and Drury as their four centres. It is clear that the team has done about as much as they can with Kotkaniemi as he had his role minimized in the second half while Staal's average ice time per game was the lowest since his rookie season. Reading the tea leaves, it seems there's an opportunity for Drury to work himself all the way up to a second-line centre, at least in terms of the talent he skates with. Add that with some modest secondary power play time and it wouldn't be surprising to see him push for a 50-point season in 2024-25. He isn't a huge multi-cat performer, but he could push for 150 shots and 50 hits in a full season with 15 minutes a game. That's not nothing, and he won't carry much of an ADP in fantasy drafts.

Anthony Duclair

If there is one thing that the Islanders definitely needed to add in the offseason, it's a left winger who could skate on the top line, and they got exactly that with Duclair. Assuming that they at try to go back to an Engvall-Nelson-Palmieri second line, there is room on the top line beside Bo Horvat and Mathew Barzal. They tried both Simon Holmstrom and Anders Lee and if they don't use Lee in that role again – I think he's destined for the third line – then Duclair has a clear shot at a top-line role. Also, the team ran closer to a 60/40 power play split after the Trade Deadline, so even if Duclair isn't on the top power play, he could still get meaningful secondary minutes.

Pavel Dorofeyev

This offseason, all of Jonathan Marchessault, Chandler Stephenson, Paul Cotter, and Michael Amadio have moved on from Vegas. That is a lot of roadblocks removed for Dorofeyev to start earning more meaningful minutes, though if the team uses Tomas Hertl on the left wing, that could be another stumbling block. Regardless, there is the opportunity for Dorofeyev to move up the lineup and skate with the likes of Hertl and Mark Stone. He won't earn top PP time, but he has 20 goals and 33 points in 67 career games skating 13:20 per night. If he's closer to 15 minutes with improved line mates, he has 25-goal, 45-point, 180-shot, 40-hit potential. Not a huge season, but this is the guy to look to for making the most of the departure of offensive talent.

Mavrik Bourque

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This is one I'm not so sure of because I wonder if there's a feeling of fantasy owners looking at what Logan Stankoven did after his call up last season and assuming Bourque will be doing the same. Not that I'm saying he is, but I am saying that with Joe Pavelski's retirement, there is an opening on the right side and Bourque would be one of the few right-handed shots. Whether that's at right wing, or at centre with Johnston being moved to the right wing, remains to be seen. However, Dallas is a team that spreads out its ice time so Bourque could step into a 14-minute role with secondary power play time. That is enough for a 40-point season if he can stay on the roster all season.

Martin Pospisil

Calgary is an interesting team, at least among their forwards, because there's a whole lot of WTF going on. Who is going to be the third-line centre? Is Jonathan Huberdeau going to get a bigger role? Where do they see Connor Zary fitting in? Can Yegor Sharangovich repeat anything close to his 31-goal season? How hard will Blake Coleman regress? And on and on. Other than Nazem Kadri and Mikael Backlund being the top two centres, there are a lot of question marks. One of those question marks is Pospisil, the guy who wasn't shy of skating over the line last season and is earning a reputation. Pospisil paced for a 30-point season had he played 82 games, and he has monster hit and penalty minute totals. With a bit more ice time, he can cross two shots per game as well. Even if he's a 15-goal, 15-assist forward, those peripherals will make him a multi-cat beast. If he can earn more ice time than 12-13 minutes a game? There is a lot of upside.

Scott Perunovich

On Tuesday, we found out that Torey Krug may miss the 2024-25 season with an ankle problem. If he misses significant time, there isn't much standing between Perunovich and top power play time other than Justin Faulk. While Faulk will (rightfully) be a popular pick when fantasy drafts roll around because of his peripheral prowess, Perunovich still has the upside fantasy managers thought he had years ago. His career has largely been derailed by injuries, but it seems very possible he will eventually take the top PP role from Faulk as the season wears on. Maybe he's not a great pick in September, but I will definitely be keeping an eye on the waiver wires when November rolls around to pluck Perunovich.

Kaiden Guhle

There are plenty of reasons to draft both Mike Matheson and Lane Huston at different points of fantasy drafts, but the same could be said for Guhle. For his career, he has 255 blocks and 200 hits in 114 regular season games, and that means he's a threat for 175-200 blocks and ~150 hits if he can earn some more ice time. He had a three-month stretch in the second half of the season where he earned nearly 21:30 per night. If he's over 22 minutes in the upcoming season, he can put up huge block and hit totals with a triple-digit shot number and flirt with 30 points. That would be a very, very productive multi-cat season.

Filip Gustavsson

This isn't much of a sleeper, but I did want to point out that after the Wild hired coach Jon Hynes, Gustavsson managed a .906 save percentage, which was higher than the season's average league wide. The big note is that the penalty kill improved, which was something that really hurt the team, and if they can improve it even further, it'll help Gustavsson's fantasy numbers a lot. There is still Marc-Andre Fleury and Jesper Wallstedt to contend with, but Fleury may be at the end of his road of usefulness and Gustavsson will get the chance to succeed ahead of Wallstedt. Gustavsson is already a favourite late-round goalie target of mine and I'm two months from my first fantasy draft.

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