190 (22nd)

18.0% (7th)

None

Looking at this data, it's remarkable how alike both teams were in terms of their offensive outputs. Beyond that, we need to remember that the NHL also was in the midst of a similarly non-offensive era 10 years ago:

From the data in these tables, McDavid appears to be walking into a scoring environment (both for his team and the NHL as a whole) that's eerily similar to Crosby's rookie season, when Crosby tallied 102 points. But appearances can be deceiving…..

Remember that the 2004-05 NHL season was canceled due to a lockout, and post-lockout rules changes that took effect for 2005-06 were heavily weighted toward trying to generate more scoring. And that's exactly what happened, as in 2005-06 nine players ended up with more than the 94 points that had led the league in scoring in 2003-04, with seven going so far as to post 100+ points, marking the first time in a decade more than even three players hit the century mark in points!

McDavid won't have the luxury of entering the NHL amid plentiful new rules that favor offense, nor with a dual rookie class, as also occurred in 2005-06.

But what about the fact that McDavid will be joining the Oliers, and a top six that – barring any trades on draft day or over the summer – will likely consist of three proven scorers, plus a former #1 overall pick? While that might seem like a blessing, it could actually inhibit McDavid's scoring.

After all, there are only so many points to go around, and the last time one player had 82+ points while two of his teammates exceeded 70 was back in 2010-11, when it happened on two teams (98 for Corey Perry, 80 for Teemu Selanne, 70 for Ryan Getzlaf; 104 for Daniel Sedin, 94 for Henrik Sedin, 73 for Ryan Kesler). Notice a trend among those six? Not a rookie among them. In fact, all six players were as old (or older) than Hall, Eberle, Nugent-Hopkins, Yakupov, and McDavid when they accomplished the feat.

Beyond that, Crosby's 102 points as an 18 year old were the third most of all time at that age (Dale Hawerchuk had 103, Wayne Gretzky had 137). What's more, the fourth, fifth and sixth highest totals for 18 year olds were only 87, 79, and 68 points.

Who Wins

Of course no one really loses – not 2005 Crosby, not 2015 McDavid, nor poolies who were (or will be) fortunate enough to own either one. But the winner of the match is Crosby, who came into the NHL with a better track record and, perhaps most importantly, did so in a season with new rules that were all the more conductive to high scoring. Plus, Crosby defied the odds as an 18 year old in posting more than 87 points, which might be difficult for McDavid to achieve not only in general (it's happened only thrice in NHL history), but even more so given the points that will be spread around to others in the very talented Edmonton top six.

What does this mean for projecting McDavid's rookie stats versus 2005 Crosby's? To me, it seems all but assured that McDavid will fall well short of the 102 points that Crosby posted as a rookie. As for how that affects McDavid' value in general, and as compared to 2015 Crosby, check back here in two days to find out, when I'll present part two of this special Cage Match event.