0.50

0.32

3.41

0.50

10.32

The news gets worse for Crosby, as his Shots and PP points totals for 2014-15 were the lowest of these four seasons. This reinforces the reality that even if you're among the best in the world, you still can do only so much if you're not on the ice more than 20:00 per game.

A small silver lining of the Johnston effect is felt only by Crosby owners in leagues with PIM, Blocked Shots, and, in particular, Hits, as Crosby's totals in each were up from 2013-14. Of course I'm guessing that poolies would gladly have foregone Crosby's roughly 10% gains in PIM, 45% increase in Hits, and tiny uptick in Blocked Shots if he could've instead stayed his 100+ point old self.

As for McDavid, in his junior tenure, he was less feisty than Crosby (0.67 PIM per game vs. 1.30 for Crosby). And in terms of PP scoring, 18 of McDavid's career 97 OHL goals (i.e., 18.5%) came on the PP, versus 35 of Crosby's 120 QMJHL tallies (i.e., 29%) so although both are primarily assist-dishers, this doesn't bode well for McDavid posting PP Points akin to Crosby's current output.

Luck-Based Metrics

Some of this looks worse than it really is. For example, Crosby's jump in OZ% for 2014-15 is mainly a function of the system employed by coach Johnston making the Pens a better puck possession team, as they went from just three forwards in 2013-14 who played 60+ games and had an OZ% of 54.7% or higher, to six in 2014-15. Thus, it wouldn't be surprising to see Crosby's OZ% stay at or near the same level next season, although if that was to occur, it also means he'd still be saddled with playing in the Johnston system, which, as noted above, is a net negative.

Also, although we see Crosby's 2014-15 Personal Shooting % is a good bit below his 14.4% career average, 11.8% is fairly in line with his past three seasons, and his career number is skewed by averaging 18.1% over two seasons. So in truth, 11.8% isn't all that bad.

The concerning numbers are Crosby's IPPs, as his 5×5 was highest among these four seasons and his 5×4 higher than all but his 22 game 2011-12 season. Thus, not only was his scoring down, but it was down despite his percentage of points being higher. If instead his 2014-15 IPPs were the average of what they had been over the past two seasons (i.e., 80.1% at 5×5 and 69.9% at 5×4), it would've resulted in him losing a total of four points. That doesn't sound like much, but it would've translated to only 80 points in 77 games (6th in the NHL) and a points per game average of 1.038 (5th). Ouch.

In terms of McDavid, we saw in part one that the odds are actually stacked quite high against him even posting point per game production as a rookie. However, if you're in a keeper league you'll be interested to note there have been nine forwards who posted point per game output or better in 75+ games as a 19 year old second year player, including four #1 overall picks (Crosby, Dale Hawerchuk, Steven Stamkos, Pierre Turgeon).

Cost vs. Value

McDavid is arriving in the NHL amid the highest of hopes and pretty much without anything negative for poolies to point to. Plus, not only has he given us no reason to think he'll fail, but let's not forget that every decade's anointed "generational" talent (Gretzky, Lemieux , Lindros, Crosby) went on to record at least nine point per game seasons.

But McDavid is the first "can't miss" player to arrive during the 24 hour news/blog cycle, where videos of literally all his goals were available for everyone to see. With that, the hype surrounding him is truly unprecedented. And while Crosby's junior exploits were well reported, it was nothing compared to what we're seeing now with McDavid.

The end result is McDavid's cost will likely be stratospheric, to the point where his actual value is all but assured to pale in comparison in one year leagues. And even in keepers, where landing McDavid will allow an owner to sit back and wait for him to hit his full stride, it still might be difficult for McDavid to justify the price to obtain him versus what you can net in return for his rights.

But we can't look at this in a vacuum – we have to assess McDavid alongside the Crosby of today. And in Crosby's case, we have a player who also projects to have problematic cost vs. value.

Because he's now gone two seasons without a major injury, poolies will regard Crosby as less of a risk in that area, ala Patrice Bergeron. And on the surface they're apt to see last season as a blip in the radar, thinking it was the team adjusting to a new coach and Crosby suffering due to Pascal Dupuis being sidelined as well as a subpar season from Chris Kunitz.

But we know from the data it wasn't an adjustment issue for Crosby. Johnston's system, which we can't assume will change, is simply one where top guys play less. And as for Dupuis and Kunitz, they'll both be 36 when the puck drops in October, and unlikely to return to past levels. And David Perron didn't step in and perform well last season alongside Crosby either, adding his name to a long list of wingers who for whatever reason didn't click with Crosby.

Essentially, Crosby of 2015 is still Crosby of 2013 in the eyes of the vast majority of poolies, where his name alone conjures the image of a scoring machine on a higher echelon than all other NHL forwards. Yet in truth, he's still super elite but is now closer to the rest of the top of the pack than not. And in points leagues, I think an objective argument can be made that it's no longer justifiable to pay that much more – if even more at all – for Crosby than it would be for an upward trajectory forward such as John Tavares or Tyler Seguin.

Who Wins?

If 2015 Crosby and 2015 McDavid were stocks and I was an unbiased analyst, I'd rate them both as sell, in that I think the value either one would provide to a fantasy team is all but assured to be less than his present cost.

With McDavid, while there might be every reason to properly bestow upon him the "player of the decade" label for the 2010s, the simple fact is expectations have been raised too high as a result of him being featured so prominently as part of the 24 hours news/blog/YouTube world. Couple that with the fact that 18 year olds have rarely posted 80 points, and scoring being down league-wide, and we have a recipe for his cost to exceed his value by quite a bit.

Meanwhile, Crosby is plagued by playing in the same non-offensive era and with an aging Pens top six. And although McDavid is arguably overhyped, Crosby's issue is he's still seen by poolies as superhuman, having yet again led the league in points per game. But the reality is Crosby's now playing for a "spread things around" coach and thus will face an uphill battle to surpass 90 points in 2015-16 or beyond.

In one-year leagues, Crosby wins because their costs probably won't be too far apart; and despite all Crosby's issues, he's still nearly a lock – health permitting – to hit 85 points, while McDavid most likely will fall short.

In keeper leagues, poolies who have the rights to own McDavid should try to trade away those rights. Simply put, the price you stand to receive will likely far exceed the value he can deliver, even when factoring in years to come. Crosby also is worth trading in keepers, to try and land a Seguin or Tavares plus another asset or pick.

What about deals where McDavid is on one side and Crosby the other? If I have the rights to McDavid, I'd try to get a player other than Crosby, as taking Crosby will make it harder to receive higher quality additional assets as part of the deal. If you have Crosby and want to try to get McDavid, don't do it in a keeper, as the price will be too high. And I'd only make such a trade in a one-year league if I'd get a lot in return – likely more than a Crosby owner would be willing to part with.

I'll end by saying that if you end up "stuck with" either of these players, you're still blessed. But the key is they're worth more to you to get rid of than to obtain/retain.

Best of luck in your 2015-16 fantasy hockey seasons, and mark your calendars to check back in ten years when I'll have a Cage Match with McDavid against someone who's all of eight years old right about now!

Part 1 – Sidney Crosby (2005) vs. Connor McDavid (2015)