Looking at the hot and cold forwards in the Eastern Conference.

For most of us the early portion of the NHL season can be a very stressful time. Every anomaly looks so much worse because these are all we have to look at for the year to date. Conversely, if the same anomaly were to happen in February it would likely be a blip on the radar in an otherwise normal campaign.

While the fall draft is still the most impactful event of the fantasy year, many titles are also won and lost with key adds, drops and trades in the first months of the new season. Obviously, buying low and selling high goes a long way but you have to buy and sell the right players. Today we will examine four players off to hot starts and four players off to cold starts along with some information to help us evaluate what is to come.

Note: this breakdown will use information found on player profile pages over at Frozen Pool. Clicking any player name here will bring you to that player’s profile which contains several metrics indicating what is to come in the not-too-distant future. This includes line combinations, ice time, power play time, shooting percentage, PDO and overall five-on-five shooting percentage among many other bits of useful information.

This will also try to avoid repeating similar topics discussed over the last two weeks:

Eastern Team Hot/Cold Starts

Interesting Line Combinations

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HOT

Lee Stempniak – New Jersey

This fall, Stempniak was mostly overlooked as his status as an NHLer was in doubt. He went to the Devils’ training camp on a tryout and signed a one-year deal at the 11^th hour. So far he is paying major dividends with seven points through eight contests. This is a massive improvement in points per game compared to last year when he finished with just 28 points.

Looking deeper into his numbers, there are some things that stand out. While his PDO and five-on-five shooting percentage are normal, his personal shooting percentage (14.3 percent) is about 3.5 percent above his career average. Furthermore, his 14 shots on-goal would only be on pace for 144 over a full schedule which will make it very difficult to score goals over the long haul.

For the time being, Stempniak is benefiting from opportunity and chemistry. He is getting first-line minutes and solid power play looks while his two most frequent linemates, Adam Henrique and Mike Cammalleri, have also been red-hot. While Stempniak should remain productive for the time being, a simple change of lines (whether deserved or not) could quickly derail his great start. He is not a popular name in fantasy circles so selling high will be difficult. It might be better to just ride it out and simply drop him if his production drops to waiver wire level.

Mark Stone and Kyle Turris – Ottawa

The duo of Stone and Turris picked up where they left off last year with a blazing start to the new campaign. Stone has especially been a point of debate over the summer regarding whether or not he is in line for a sophomore slump so his nine points are definitely good news. However, whether or not they can continue at this clip remains to be seen.

As of today, both have PDO values above 1060 and five-on-five shooting percentages of 14 percent or higher. Stone’s personal shooting percentage (12.5 percent) is in a normal range although getting just two shots per game somewhat limits his goal-scoring upside. Turris on the other hand is up to 19 percent which is due to come back down to earth.

It is not surprising that some of their numbers are higher than normal because it would be absurd to expect both to produce in a point-per-game range all year. Nonetheless, both are seeing more than 20 minutes per game and are on the ice for more than 60 percent of the Sens’ power play time. This will help keep them productive down the stretch.

Evgeny Kuznetsov – Washington

Coming off a five-point outing at Edmonton, Kuznetsov finds himself in a tie for fourth in the NHL scoring race with 11 points in eight games. No doubt, when this happens in October it muddies the waters as to what we can expect from him moving forward considering his star power as a prospect and immense offensive potential. Not surprisingly, his PDO, overall five-on-five shooting percentage and personal shooting percentage are all very high at the moment so his numbers are obviously due to come back down.

The real question is how far the numbers will drop. As mentioned, Kuznetsov has star potential and it is possible he can ascend to that level in his second full NHL season. Ultimately, that will depend on him staying on Alexander Ovechkin’s line. If Nicklas Backstrom returns to his usual post as the center on the top line it will be very difficult for the 23-year-old to continue producing at such a high rate next to lesser wingers. In a one-year league it might be a good idea to see if you can sell Kuznetsov for a slumping proven star.

COLD

Matt Beleskey – Boston

Last summer Beleskey signed with Boston after posting numbers that were clearly unsustainable last year with the Ducks including a 28-goal pace. With that said the Bruins have a need for his size and grit so more minutes should have helped offset the drop and keep him productive especially in multi-category leagues.

Through five games, Beleskey has a goal and an assist which is slightly disappointing. Making matters worse is he has just four shots on goal while playing primarily on a depth line with Chris Kelly and Jimmy Hayes. Meanwhile his on-ice shooting percentage at five-on-five (11 percent) is actually a bit high so you cannot blame this on luck.

Unless he can start getting more pucks on net he has virtually no chance of getting off the ground offensively nor will he have much chance of ascending to a spot next to David Krejci or Patrice Bergeron. Not all is lost as we are just five games in but he will have to find a way to get more involved in scoring chances. Recall that his 22 goals in 65 games last year were scored on 145 total shots (2.23 shots per game).

Jack Eichel – Buffalo

While he has had some very impressive moments in his young NHL career, Eichel currently sits with just three points (all goals) in eight games. Looking deeper we can see he has been very unlucky to date, with his five-on-five on-ice shooting percentage of just 1.75 percent leading the way as two of his tallies have come on the power play.

Eichel’s two wings have been revolving doors this year. He has lined up frequently next to combinations of Brian Gionta, Evander Kane, Marcus Foligno and Tyler Ennis so it is surprising he has not yet achieved an assist. Eichel has actually shot often (three per game) and his three goals represent a solid clip so any improvement will come in the form of helpers. As his production corrects itself look for his plus/minus, which currently sits at minus-seven, to become much less of a liability.

David Perron – Pittsburgh

A fantasy enigma over the years, Perron has had a disastrous start with no points through eight games despite plenty of opportunity to produce on a line with Evgeny Malkin. Clearly his statistics classify him as unlucky and he will obviously not spend the rest of the year at zero points. The concern lies in how he will be utilized moving forward as he has been demoted to the bottom-six and saw just 13 minutes last game.

Unlike in past year, the Penguins have options up front. In addition to Chris Kunitz, the returning Pascal Dupuis is also capable of playing a top-six role on the left side and the team also likes to use a mucker like Sergei Plotnikov next to Malkin, his fellow countryman. It goes without saying Perron will be in tough to get back on track but if the team continues to struggle he could be the benefactor of a future line shake-up.

Nikita Kucherov – Tampa Bay

After exploding in his sophomore year with 65 ponts despite just 15 minutes per game on the ice, Kucherov was another player whose fate this year was up for debate in fantasy circles. Despite an uptick in ice time and power play utilization, he has just two points in nine games. Obviously things will get better as evidenced by his five-on-five shooting percentage of less than six percent.

One point of concern is that while Kucherov has been put in a better spot to produce, he has just 18 shots (two per game) after averaging 2.3 per game last year in a lesser role. It is still early but the slow start could be enough to prevent Kucherov from beating last year’s point total. His line with Tyler Johnson and Ondrej Palat is still intact after setting the league on fire last year. Even if the trio is broken up the alternative for Kucherov is likely to be Stamkos. Either way he will be lining up next to a high-end center so he should be able to get back on track offensively soon.

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