Fantasy Take: Marleau Is Now a Maple Leaf

Ian Gooding

2017-07-02

The Toronto Maple Leafs have signed veteran forward Patrick Marleau to a three-year contract worth $18.75 million, including a no-move clause.

Until now, Marleau has spent his entire 19-year NHL career with the Sharks. Yet he is familiar with Leafs coach Mike Babcock, as Babcock coached Marleau on the 2010 and 2014 Canadian Olympic teams. With the entry-level contracts of core young forwards Auston Matthews, William Nylander, and Mitch Marner all expiring over the next two seasons, GM Lou Lamoriello knows that the time to go all in is now given that things will get more complicated once it’s time for the youngsters to get paid.

Marleau chipped in a very respectable 27 goals last season, yet his 19 assists were his lowest total since his rookie season. Of concern is that his shot total has declined over each of the last three seasons to under 200 in 2016-17. A 14.2 percent shooting accuracy, which reversed a gradually declining shooting percentage, masked the lower shot total. Declining icetime has factored in to the shot decrease, as Marleau averaged just 17 minutes last season compared to 20+ minutes in 2013-14.

There are rumors abound that James van Riemsdyk or Tyler Bozak will be traded as a result of this signing, possibly for a defenseman. Both forwards have one year remaining on their contracts. But if both remain with the Leafs, their fantasy values could take a hit, especially winger JVR.

In spite of his declining totals, Marleau was still used on the power play with the big boys in San Jose. So if Babcock is that enamored with Marleau, that’s probably where he will end up in Toronto, with or without van Riemsdyk or Bozak. But it would be too hasty to make any other predictions here if Lamoriello isn’t done yet.

Not surprisingly, Marleau’s most frequent center in San Jose was Joe Thornton. So right away it would be easy to assume that Thornton’s value will take a slight hit with the departure of his long-time teammate. (This assumes, of course, that the Thornton signing is finalized and announced by the team. If not, then we will revisit Thornton.) Since Mikkel Boedker is the only noteworthy natural left wing, it’s possible that Logan Couture is moved over to left wing to accommodate.

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Speaking of Boedker, this move could be what is needed to reverse his declining fantasy stock. He appeared to be a bad fit in San Jose after scoring just 26 points (10g-16a) in his first season there. But he is under contract for three more seasons at $4 million, so the Sharks need to recoup at least some of that investment. Even though Boedker has been in the NHL for quite a while, he still is only 27 years of age, so don’t rule out a rebound now.

Players this helps, in order:

  1. Boedker
  2. Marleau (moves to a younger, higher-scoring offense)

Players this hurts, in order:

  1. van Riemsdyk (if he stays in Toronto)
  2. Bozak (if he stays in Toronto)
  3. Thornton (if the re-signing in San Jose is made official)

Fantasy owners are already discussing this signing on the Forum – give your take here!

One Comment

  1. MarkRM16 2017-07-03 at 15:42

    Wouldn’t ya know it? Just when I though the Leafs were starting to get smarter, they add a bad contract. Don’t get me wrong, I’ve been a Marleau fan from day one and he will be a valuable mentor to the Leafs’ young forwards and has a lot of playoff experience, but signing a winger as old as Marleau for more than 1 year at a salary/cap that high is insane. $3M plus bonuses for 1 year would have been an amazing addition.

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