Taylor Hall Traded to New Jersey for Adam Larsson

Dobber

2016-06-29

Fantasy Impact: The Edmonton Oilers traded winger Taylor Hall to the New Jersey Devils for defenseman Adam Larsson. Straight up one-for-one deal.

 

The Devils get: one of the premier left wings in the NHL. The 24-year-old (25 in the fall) plays an aggressive brand of hockey and he already has three 25-goal seasons under his belt. Hall is coming off the first full healthy season of his NHL career and with that comes a career high in shots on goal (286). Not only does Hall become New Jersey's best player, but he just might be their best player (skater) ever. Potentially. He's not there yet. More on this below.

 

The Oilers get: a highly-coveted right-handed shooting defenseman with a lot of upside with talent that was being wasted in New Jersey. Larsson was completely mishandled by the Devils, getting rushed into the NHL but not getting played. This finally stopped during the 2014-15 season and he started to show signs of breaking out offensively. In 2015-16, Larsson was held out of power-play opportunities and used strictly in a defensive capacity. This despite being New Jersey's most productive defenseman. 

 

Let's take a step back: The Internet just exploded and 100% of the venom was against Peter Chiarelli in the Oilers. I believe "fleeced" was a term commonly used. Was it a fleecing, though? I say no. Did the Oilers win the trade, as seemingly 100% of the Internet believes? I'm going to reserve judgment – mostly because if I say "no" here, I'll get shot. Could the Oilers have gotten more back for Hall? Absolutely. And that's really what the Internet is so angry about. They see a defenseman whose career high is three goals and 24 points and a forward who had 80 points just two years ago and they've drawn their conclusions. But let's look at some specifics.

1. Hall missed 17, 21, 3, 7, 29 and 0 games in his six seasons – averaging 69 games played per season. Larsson missed 17 and 0 games during his two full seasons, and prior to that he was scratched or in the minors for parts of the year. Both players are coming off full 82-game slates, but most people would agree that Hall gets hurt a little more.

2. Hall was drafted first overall in 2010. Larsson was drafted fourth overall in 2011, but Larsson was second on most lists that year. 

3. Hall is a star and a potential superstar. But dial down the rhetoric a little. He's not "Top 3" in the league, as I saw someone write. Or even "Top 10". He didn't get the call for Team Canada at the World Cup. Larsson didn't make Team Sweden, either.

4. Right-shooting defensemen are coveted

5. The Oilers save over $2 million in cap space, which is nothing to sneeze at. Teams have traded great prospects and draft picks just to shed that much. Those of you who think "they could have just traded Hall for Subban" are wrong. Subban would increase their cap by $3 million. This decreases the cap by $2 million. And Larsson is locked in at that salary too.

This deal is still about potential. Yes, Hall already gave us a glimpse of this potential when he achieved 80 points in 2013-14, but in two years since he's been a 65-point guy. The expectation for NHL fans and fantasy owners is that he'll of course get back to 80 points or even 90. Potentially.

So why can't fans offer the same kind of hope for Larsson? If this trade was done in 2011 or 2012, nobody would have blinked. So something happened in last four years that changed everyone's mind. And that thing that happened was: Hall tallied 80 points in a season, whereas Larsson was a complete no-show offensively. But Larsson not only saw no PP time (just 3.3% of New Jersey's available power-play time for the season! Don't believe me? It's right here!), but he also started just 31.8% of his 5-on-5 shifts outside of the offensive zone. That's a number that is rarely seen for this stat, it's so low. Larsson was also the defenseman, along with Andy Greene, who saw the toughest minutes on the team facing the strongest quality of competition (source). Larsson, 23, still has a lot of potential and I rate a strong 'buy'. Worth rolling the dice on.

 

Do you know what this trade reminds me of? July of 1995 when St. Louis traded Brendan Shanahan to the Hartford Whalers for Chris Pronger. Shanahan was two seasons removed from 102 points and Pronger had seasons of 30 and 14 points. If Twitter was around back then, the Blues would have been destroyed by fans. Brutal! They would have Tweeted. But looking back, did the Blues do okay? I should think so! Don't be too vocal panning this one, I think you'll be surprised how it turns out.

 

Fantasy Players Impacted: Larsson will be Edmonton's premier defensive defenseman and all the ice time that entails. His contract and draft pedigree will see to that. But will he get PP minutes as well? I think he will, unless Edmonton lands a better one somehow. Jason Demers, who is rumored to be about to sign there, is also a right-handed shot. But Larsson has more offensive talent and upside than Demers so I think Larsson is a good gamble for this year. Maybe not reach that potential that we once hoped for him, but certainly something that could see him flirt with 40 points or more.

Hall just went from playing with Leon Draisaitl and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, to playing with Kyle Palmieri and Adam Henrique. You tell me which scenario is better. But that decline in production will be counterbalanced by his growth as a player and the natural improved production that entails. He could still be a point-per-game player, even with the Devils. But play it safe and count on 70 games, 65 points. He bumps Mike Cammalleri down the depth chart (but that's deserved) and possibly one of Reid Boucher or Joseph Blandisi right out of the lineup. Palmieri's production will improve. I don't think Henrique's numbers will improve though, and here's why: while he may start out on a line with Hall, I think it will be Pavel Zacha who gets there eventually. Travis Zajac will see some time there as well. Hall's centermen will rotate for this season until the Devils can settle on a good one down the road (perhaps Zacha will be ready).

The Oilers often went with four forwards and a defenseman on the power play. And that defenseman was usually Justin Schultz (who has since moved on) or Andrej Sekera. So Larsson probably bumps Sekera. Darnell Nurse will make his way to the power play in due time.

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Fantasy Players this helps, in order:

1. Larsson (profile, stats here)

2. Palmieri (profile, stats here)

3. Henrique (profile, stats here)

4. Zacha (profile and scouting report here)

5. Zajac (profile, stats here)

 

Fantasy Players this hurts, in order:

1. Hall (profile, stats here)

2. Sekera (profile, stats here)

3. Nurse (profile, stats here)

 

 

Fun fact: With Taylor Hall being traded, each player of the 2010 first six draft picks have been traded prior to turning 25.

 

There's already nine pages of discussion in the forum on this. Have your say here!

19 Comments

  1. Neil Parker 2016-06-29 at 16:33

    This is the overpay I was talking about. Edmonton is much better — who cares if it looks bad on paper.

  2. hoopo 2016-06-29 at 17:13

    I wouldn’t put too much on Hall not being named to the World Cup roster. Team Canada often makes a few head-scratcher decisions and name guys that probably aren’t “top-3”, but Canada is so deep there’s room for error. Canada’s not a team that’s going to hurt for goal-scoring if they pick the 6th or 7th best to help “chemistry” or whatever instead of the 4th or 5th best.

  3. Dwayne 2016-06-29 at 17:24

    I would say this trade makes what the Canucks gave up for Gudbranson look not as bad. Although Gudbranson is not the potential of Larrson and who knows how Mcann/picks will turn out.

  4. audiopile 2016-06-29 at 17:25

    The radio folk were calling this Grand Larsson-y.

  5. Patrick Hall 2016-06-29 at 17:25

    Fleeced. what a joke. all those forwards and this is the best defenceman they could could get?

    At first I thought they traded him for weber or suban that makes sense.

    The only thing more ridiculous then this trade is the pronger comparison

  6. lcbtd 2016-06-29 at 17:37

    Maybe Larsson is the next Pronger. Maybe Hall is the next Brendan Shanahan. Maybe. And when that happens we might call this a win for Edm. Until then, I’ll play the odds (heavy odds) and say that when all is said and done, Hall’s numbers will be a hell of a lot closer to Shanahan’s than Larsson to Pronger’s.

    I think the bigger issue here is the Oilers were deep at C and not on the wing. McDavid, Draisatl, RNH (earning $6 million playing third line!!!).

    Funny though, I remember reading (maybe here, maybe not) that when Chiarelli traded Seguin that Boston’s going to love this Loui Eriksson and that Joe Morrow has some very good potential (there’s that dirty word again). How’d that turn out for them?

    Here’s my take looking five years down the road – there’s a 60% chance the Oilers lose this trade. There’s a 30% chance it’s a draw. There’s a 10% chance we have the Pronger / Shanahan situation and the Oilers win this trade.

    As I said above, it’s always best to play the odds.

    • Dobber 2016-06-29 at 19:53

      I like this breakdown. And the odds that you give are about what I’m thinking. Great comment, thanks

  7. mick 2016-06-29 at 18:22

    Not many have this contrarian view, takes balls to put it out there and it will be interesting to see the outcome after 40 games. Instead of the Team Canada comment – we all know that means nothing (Subban, Letang) you might have considered another factor – Larsson’s cap hit. Maybe now they sign Demers as well as Lucic – That would be the win. I sure hope they don’t.

    • Dobber 2016-06-29 at 19:52

      I meant to put the cap hit in there. I added it now

  8. Dobber 2016-06-29 at 19:50

    I’m not comparing Larsson to Pronger. What can I do to get readers to stop saying that, it’s embarrassing for me (that you think that) and embarrassing for you (that you read that into it when there is nothing here that should lead you to do that).

    What I’m comparing is a) the fan reaction and b) how the trade didn’t work out the way it was expected. I’m asking you to dial it back a bit. The Blues fans who let loose on the organization for the horrible trade had to eat crow.

  9. Mark 2016-06-29 at 20:04

    I had suspected that the Oilers and Devils might be trade partners before the season started because the Oilers have a surplus of talented forwards and the Devils a good defense corps, but I was expecting a Yakupov for Larsson trade with some bit players and perhaps some draft picks. Given the mediocrity of the Devils’ centremen and Edmonton’s surplus at C, wouldn’t a trade for Nugent-Hopkins have made more sense? The Devils love 2-way forwards and Hall is pure offense, so that alone might hurt his numbers somewhat. Still, NJ did have to find a replacement for Elias.

  10. Patrick Hall 2016-06-29 at 20:15

    If you do not want people to make the comparison, do not include it in your article. When you say this trade for a scoring winger for an unproven defenseman reminds you of another time when a scoring winger was traded for an unproven defenseman, readers are obviously going to compare the players.

    You can talk about potential, right handed shot and cap space all you want however this a grade A winger traded for a mediocre defenseman. Mediocre meaning not in the top 50 D. Trading Hall to create cap space for another mediocre defenseman (demers) makes little sense. Trading a forward when you have too many to create space to sign another forward (lucic) makes none.

  11. Allan Phillips 2016-06-29 at 21:25

    I of course reacted like WTF??? I had the same reaction when NJ signed him to his contract. Your comments put that all in perspective. I’ve never been enamored with Hall – obviously very talented with loads of potential – but he mostly seems to fall short of #1 overall expectations. Larsson – maybe Erik Johnson in the making? Nice work though!

  12. Allan Phillips 2016-06-29 at 21:37

    A comment about Palmieri: it seems like he came out of nowhere this year after being freed from the logjam of young forwards in Anaheim. People don’t seem to realize that this kid was nearly a point per game player in the AHL & scored 75 goals in 148 AHL games. He’s a pure scorer that needs some help! I could definitely see this ratcheting up his production (come one, Zacha!).

  13. Chunky's Choice 2016-06-29 at 23:33

    What would be the impact on Oilers forwards? I was thinking maybe Yak or Puljujarvi gets more power-play time now… then again maybe Lucic takes it all

    • Dobber 2016-06-30 at 08:39

      Lucic and Pulju will eat up the missing PP time. Yak gets more because Purcell is gone. Another factor – what if the Oilers go with two defensemen on the PP?

  14. Chad Burly 2016-06-30 at 07:32

    So all Larsson has to do is become the next Pronger, and the Oil will have an even trade! Seems easy enough.

    • Dobber 2016-06-30 at 08:37

      Actually, if Larsson became the next Pronger than the Oilers would have fleeced the Devils. A RH shot Hall-of-Famer Playoff stud signed long term for just $4 million per? Robbery!
      No, Larsson would just need to become a Top 20 defensive defenseman and 40-plus points offensively and at his salary and filling that RH shot need, it will be an even swap. But I think he can and will be better than that.
      The Oilers took a risk. Larsson could bomb. Then Chiarelli would look stupid. His job’s on the line. Give it three years and then judge.

  15. Chris Liggio 2016-06-30 at 13:33

    my keeper core is RyJo/Backstrom/Simmonds/Voracek/Hall/Josi/Hedman/Jones. I also have Murray on roster so if Fluery was traded I would be forced to keep him as well with my scoring format and fact that already have one stud goalie in Jones. Who would you drop from forwards (not breaking up that D pair) to accommodate if so? Voracek or Hall?

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