Frozen Forensics: Matt Beleskey

Derek Gibson

2015-07-03

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Matt Beleskey could have good fantasy value in Boston next season.

Ah yes, July 1^st. It's basically the last bastion of sanity for hockey fans. The Cup Final is completed, the draft is completed, and all that was left was that mighty July 1^st: the beginning of free agency. This is the time when teams spend like drunken sailors in a foreign port call, lavishly throwing money at players, hoping they're the right fit for their club.

Fantasy owners watch with great anticipation as well. If you're in a keeper league, will one of your players who is an unrestricted free agent, jump ship for the money? Leave behind a great situation (fantasy-wise for you at least), for a less-than appealing set up? This July 1^st spending spree was actually quite tame, in all honesty. There were not many "big" names that signed on the dotted line (Phil Kessel being dealt to Pittsburgh was obviously a huge deal). Lots of intrigue for sure, and no player seemed to garner as much anticipation heading into the turn of the calendar than forward Matt Beleskey, the former Anaheim Duck, who was signed to a five year, $19 million deal with the Boston Bruins. Perfect fit right? Rugged, tough winger, who comes in to replace the recently departed fan favorite, Milan Lucic. Will it work? Will he be fantasy relevant? Let's take a look.

Marchand-Bergeron-Connolly

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As you can see, Beleskey has a very good shot of getting significant ice time on a line centered by either Patrice Bergeron or David Krejci. Not bad. Not bad at all.

Using the Dobber Frozen Pool Line Production Tool, I looked into the 2013-14 regular season for Milan Lucic with the Bruins. This past season just seemed like a bad comparable due to key injuries to Krejci that plagued him for virtually the entire season, and Lucic was wildy inconsistent in 2014-15 as well.

EV	IGINLA,JAROME – KREJCI,DAVID – LUCIC,MILAN	38	64.41%
PP	IGINLA,JAROME – KREJCI,DAVID – LUCIC,MILAN	10	16.95%
EV	ERIKSSON,LOUI – KREJCI,DAVID – LUCIC,MILAN	3	5.08%
EV	BERGERON,PATRICE – IGINLA,JAROME – KREJCI,DAVID – LUCIC,MILAN	2	3.39%

Looking at Lucic's production, it's easy to see that yes, he was playing with a future Hall of Famer in Jarome Iginla, but the whole key to that line was Krejci. When healthy, Krejci is a highly-skilled and creative playmaker, and he has that knack of holding onto the puck just long enough to create that extra space for his net-crashing line mates. This is where Beleskey could potentially enjoy some point production. Add sophomore sensation David Pastrnak into the fold, and Beleskey could easily build upon his career high of 22 goals from last season.

Keep an eye on Matt Beleskey in your drafts come September. He could be excellent value in later rounds, and at the age of 27, he could just be hitting his prime as a consistent fantasy producer.

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