Will Matt Duchene improve on a disappointing 2014-2015 fantasy season? 

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Hard to believe, but Matt Duchene is entering his SEVENTH National Hockey League season. Duchene has been such a key contributor for the Colorado Avalanche that it’s beggar belief that he has yet to turn 25 years old. He is an absolutely dazzling hockey player to watch in the open ice, where his speed is matched by few in the NHL. His puck-handling and playmaking acumen are phenomenal, and at the ripe, tender age of 24, he could be potentially entering his prime both on the ice, and in the stat sheets for your fantasy hockey squads.

So, what’s not to like, you say? I can sum it up in one word: consistency. Let’s take a further look at “The Real Matty Ice” (not that stiff Matt Ryan), and what went wrong for him last year, and what fantasy hockey owners could potentially look forward to for the 2015-16 season.

I may in fact be dating myself a bit here, but does anyone out there remember the name Bret Saberhagen? He was a Major League pitcher who started his career with the Kansas City Royals. For the better part of his first 10 seasons in the majors, Sabes essentially flip-flopped his performance from year to year: dominant in odd seasons, quite pedestrian in even years. In years 1985, 1987, and 1989, he won a total of 61 games, and captured two Cy Young awards. Even years? Years 1986, 1988, and 1990 saw him win 26 games total. This has been known as the “Saberhagen Disease.”

In fantasy hockey, Matt Duchene has suffered from this “sickness” during his first six seasons as a top pivot man for the Avs. Below are his numbers to support that:

After looking at little closer, Duchene suffered from having two solid “Saberhagen Seasons” in a row, and then having a letdown year (remember 2012-13 was the lockout season).

Points per game during the good times: .85  The “sub-standard” years: .57

It is this inconsistency that prevents Duchene from being considered a truly elite fantasy producer, and there are a few factors that lead to this:

#1 – Linemates: Let us take a look at his linemate breakdown from a year ago using the Dobber Frozen Pool Line Combo Tool:

Max Talbot?!?! Talk about the ultimate “anchor” linemate!!! Duchene’s speed, vision, and passing abilities are too good for him to be on the ice with the likes of Mad Max, Cody Mcleod, or Jamie McGinn. Looking back at the last two years, Colorado dealt with the injury bug, so this could contribute to the constant line shuffling from Head Coach Patrick Roy.

Now let’s take a look at his production percentage using the same Frozen Pool Tool:

Duchene actually had some pretty good chemistry with Jarome Iginla and Alex Tanguay, two aging but productive fantasy contributors. But you know who I DON’T see on that list? Nathan MacKinnon, and not enough of Gabriel Landeskog. A number one line combo looking like this could be downright lethal for Colorado:

Left Wing- The Skog    Center- Duchene        Right Wing- Nate Mac

I like that combo a lot, even if it finds Mackinnon playing at Right Wing. He and Duchene need to be on the ice together, and The Captain can provide the necessary sandpaper for that line. If, and it’s a big IF, that is a line come opening night, and it stays healthy and productive, all three players could easily be looking at 60-65 points.

Reason #2 – Power Play. Seven points?!?! (Insert a Harry Doyle comment here all you Major League fans) That’s all he had is seven power play points?!?!? That has to change moving forward; Duchene, and the Avalanche for that matter, are far too talented an offensive team to collectively be ranked 29^th in the entire league with a 15% success rate. The previous season, Colorado finished fifth with a 19.8%. A team that can roll out the aforementioned players in addition to Power Play Quarterback Supreme Tyson Barrie should be pumping in power play tallies at the very minimum of 20%. Duchene, prior to last season, sported yearly averages of 17 power play points/year during the “good” years. Things were so inconsistent for Colorado and Duchene on the man advantage that he was demoted to the second PP Unit during the season, and his 2:18 power play/TOI was a three-year low. For the upcoming season, with Ryan O’Reilly out of the picture, Duchene should see an increase in power play opportunities.

As I type this, Yahoo! has published their annual Fantasy Hockey Leagues, and they have Duchene at 76 for their pre-draft rankings. In my opinion, in a 10-team League, an eighth round pick on Matt Duchene seems like solid fantasy hockey business. You could be reaching for him anywhere before this (he does carry Left Wing eligibility), but “Matty Ice” is poised to breakout with a career year. Draft with confidence, and hope the Colorado power play improves. You won’t have to worry about him taking shifts with Max Talbot (traded for supreme underachiever Jordan Caron), but if you see him with Cody McLeod or Blake Comeau, feel free to order a head examination for Patty Roy…..

Other work from Derek Gibson

Dynamic Duo: Connor and Jack Edition

Frozen Forensics – Milan Lucic