Does new LA King Milan Lucic have another monster fantasy season in the tank?

It goes without saying that left winger Milan Lucic has a lot to prove heading into the 2015-16 season. Coming off of his lowest non-lockout point total since the 2009-10 season, plenty of questions have arisen as to how much the 27 year-old has left in the tank.

Enter the Los Angeles Kings, a team that, after missing the playoffs last season, was looking to make a splash in the offseason, and did just that. In return for Lucic, the Kings traded away the 13th overall pick in the 2015 Entry Draft along with backup goaltender Martin Jones. Couple this transaction with the free agency departure of Justin Williams, and it looks like the Kings could roll out a No. 1 line of Lucic at left wing, Anze Kopitar at center, and Marian Gaborik at right wing. This line, if healthy, has enormous fantasy potential heading into the season. Let’s break it down and see how Lucic could thrive in his new digs. Oh, and did I mention he’s an unrestricted free agent after 2015-16…..? Keep that in mind come draft day.

Lucic is a familiar name to fantasy owners, especially in leagues where penalty minutes and hits are included. He is one of those rare players with the potential of registering 50-plus points and 100-plus PIM. Despite a 15-point slide in production from 2013-14, Lucic was still third on the Bruins in scoring, and also chipped in with 81 PIM. There is so much more there from a production standpoint; “Looch” knows it, Kings’ head coach Darryl Sutter knows, and fantasy hockey owners know it. For his three-year peak, these were Lucic’s average season:

Excellent production during those three years, so last year’s dip brings a lot of questions, and to me, first and foremost is age. At 27, have we seen the fantasy production peak of Lucic? I say no, and if we’re simply forecasting for next season in particular, I see tremendous value in Lucic. Honestly, I don’t think Lucic could have “fallen” into a better situation: Los Angeles, even more so than Boston, has been a historically tremendous possession team during five-on-five play, ranking at or near the top of several advanced statistical categories for team-possession tracking.

And if Lucic is fortunate enough to play on a line with Anze Kopitar, he could very well be looking at an upgrade of offensive-zone production with regards to shots for per 60 minutes, shots against per 60 minutes, and offensive zone starts. More offensive-zone time obviously leads to more chances for Lucic, but even more so, a chance to throw his massive 6’3”, 235 pound frame around. Lucic led the Bruins in hits last year (10th overall), and that plays right into the framework of the Kings’ game, as they rank second in hits per game over the last four seasons. If you’re playing in a league that includes hits, keep this in mind.

What Lucic, and the Kings for that matter, lack in power-play production can certainly be made in up in other fantasy categories, like plus/minus rating and the aforementioned hits. It’s hard to utilize the Dobber Hockey Frozen Pool line combination tool with a player traded, as comparing his previous season’s line combo’s and production will differ with his new team. However, I truly feel Lucic has been dropped into a perfect situation. Instead, let’s compare his three-year average from above with similar players:

Wayne Simmonds:

David Backes:

All three are very similar, and the nice thing for fantasy owners, they all play different positions, so you could very well fill needs at Center, Left Wing, and Right Wing. Although he’s not the featured player for the particular article, keep an eye on David Backes as he, like Lucic, is heading into a contract year.

Is Milan Lucic a top-10 fantasy left winger for 2015-16? Take a look at some of last year’s top LWs that could see a dip production (Chris Kunitz, Max Pacioretty due to potential injury impact), assess what your team needs could be, and ask these questions:

Do I need some sandpaper in my lineup?

I’m starting to enter those rounds where I’m looking for value and breakout potential. Who were the traded/free agent players that landed in a great spot?

And…

Who is playing for their next contract?

Milan Lucic answers all three of those questions nicely, and much like with the Kings, could be a perfect fit for your fantasy squad. Look to target Lucic in rounds 6-8.