Top 200 Fantasy Prospect Forwards – October 2016
Dobber
2016-10-13
The Top 200 forward prospects to own in keeper league fantasy hockey – October edition
Boy, training camp sure moved players up and down the fantasy value list, eh? Whether it was Arturri Lehkonen's impressive camp in Montreal, or Danton Heinen's seizing a spot in Boston, or perhaps some players who made huge impressions but didn't quite make the team (such as Josh Ho-Sang with the Islanders) – lots of adjustments to make in how you rank players. Not only for your roster, but in trade talks and at the draft table too (yes, late drafts are still happening). And then there are are the disappointments. Did anyone expect Shea Theodore and Ryan Pulock to be cut? More on those two tomorrow, when I post the D rankings.
These rankings factor the prospect's offensive upside, the certainty that he will become an NHLer, the length of time we have to wait – and to a lesser extent, the roster he is joining, proneness to injury and immediate production (if applicable). Letter indicators are p=power forward t=two-way o=offensive os=offensive but small. There are a million categories we could put these prospects in, but I'm stuffing them – sometimes forcibly – into just the four.
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Don't forget – you can read the prospects historical observations, outlook and stats by clicking on his name.
Oct 10 | Prospect | Team | type | Prospect Rating | Sep 10 | Aug 10 |
1 | Auston Matthews | TOR | o | 113.2 | 1 | 1 |
2 | Patrik Laine | WPG | p | 111.8 | 2 | 2 |
3 | Jesse Puljujarvi | EDM | t | 98.5 | 3 | 3 |
4 | Mitch Marner | TOR | o | 91.9 | 4 | 4 |
5 | Dylan Strome | ARI | o | 88.2 | 5 | 5 |
6 | William Nylander | TOR | o | 87.7 | 6 | 6 |
7 | Pierre-Luc Dubois | CBJ | o | 81.6 | 7 | 7 |
8 | Christian Dvorak | ARI | o | 80.8 | 8 | 8 |
9 | Sebastian Aho | CAR | o | 77.7 | 9 | 9 |
10 | Oliver Bjorkstrand | CBJ | o | 76.3 | 14 | 14 |
11 | Mikko Rantanen | COL | p | 76.2 | 10 | 10 |
12 | Kyle Connor | WPG | o | 75.3 | 11 | 11 |
13 | Jimmy Vesey | NYR | o | 75.0 | 12 | 12 |
14 | Pavel Zacha | NJD | p | 74.4 | 13 | 13 |
15 | Travis Konecny | PHI | o | 74.1 | 15 | 15 |
16 | Mathew Barzal | NYI | o | 70.7 | 18 | 18 |
17 | Nick Ritchie | ANA | p | 69.6 | 16 | 16 |
18 | Brayden Point | TBL | os | 69.3 | 17 | 17 |
19 | Matthew Tkachuk | CGY | p | 68.8 | 22 | 25 |
20 | Sonny Milano | CBJ | o | 67.9 | 19 | 19 |
21 | Jake Virtanen | VAN | p | 67.7 | 20 | 20 |
22 | Anthony Mantha | DET | o | 67.7 | 21 | 21 |
23 | Colin White | OTT | o | 67.2 | 23 | 23 |
24 | Clayton Keller | ARI | o | 67.2 | 24 | 22 |
25 | Timo Meier | SJS | o | 65.8 | 36 | 36 |
26 | Andreas Athanasiou | DET | o | 65.8 | 25 | 26 |
27 | Nick Schmaltz | CHI | o | 65.5 | 32 | 51 |
28 | Jakub Vrana | WAS | o | 65.3 | 26 | 27 |
29 | Kevin Fiala | NSH | o | 64.9 | 27 | 28 |
30 | Artturi Lehkonen | MON | o | 64.8 | 85 | 90 |
31 | Tyler Motte | CHI | os | 63.9 | 49 | 58 |
32 | Adrian Kempe | LAK | o | 63.0 | 29 | 29 |
33 | Zach Hyman | TOR | o | 62.9 | 77 | 78 |
34 | Connor Brown | TOR | o | 62.8 | 46 | 45 |
35 | Pavel Buchnevich | NYR | o | 62.6 | 37 | 37 |
36 | Brett Ritchie | DAL | p | 62.5 | 30 | 30 |
37 | Tyson Jost | COL | o | 62.4 | 40 | 40 |
38 | Alexander Nylander | BUF | o | 62.2 | 41 | 41 |
39 | Kevin Labanc | SJS | o | 62.1 | 53 | 52 |
40 | Ivan Barbashev | STL | t | 62.1 | 42 | 42 |
41 | Joel Eriksson Ek | MIN | o | 61.9 | 78 | 79 |
42 | Brock Boeser | VAN | p | 61.9 | 43 | 43 |
43 | Lawson Crouse | ARI | p | 61.7 | 45 | 44 |
44 | Danton Heinen | BOS | o | 61.7 | 157 | 166 |
45 | Ty Rattie | STL | o | 61.7 | 34 | 33 |
46 | Sven Andrighetto | MON | os | 61.5 | 48 | 47 |
47 | Nicolas Petan | WPG | os | 61.5 | 47 | 46 |
48 | Devin Shore | DAL | t | 61.2 | 55 | 54 |
49 | Michael McCarron | MON | p | 61.2 | 35 | 34 |
50 | Teemu Pulkkinen | MIN | o | 61.2 | 33 | 32 |
51 | Jonathan Marchessault | FLA | os | 61.1 | 50 | 48 |
52 | Alex Tuch | MIN | p | 61.0 | 52 | 50 |
53 | Jayce Hawryluk | FLA | o | 60.7 | 51 | 49 |
54 | Daniel Sprong | PIT | o | 60.4 | 39 | 39 |
55 | Nick Paul | OTT | p | 60.4 | 38 | 38 |
56 | Jason Dickinson | DAL | t | 60.4 | 54 | 53 |
57 | Nikolay Goldobin | SJS | o | 60.1 | 66 | 66 |
58 | Ryan Dzingel | OTT | o | 60.1 | 56 | 55 |
59 | Nick Cousins | PHI | o | 59.9 | 57 | 56 |
60 | Vladislav Kamenev | NSH | t | 59.4 | 60 | 60 |
61 | Hudson Fasching | BUF | p | 59.2 | 63 | 63 |
62 | Charles Hudon | MON | o | 59.1 | 64 | 64 |
63 | Josh Ho-Sang | NYI | o | 59.0 | 79 | 81 |
64 | Conor Sheary | PIT | o | 59.0 | 82 | 84 |
65 | Evgeny Svechnikov | DET | p | 58.5 | 68 | 68 |
66 | Michael Dal Colle | NYI | o | 58.5 | 31 | 31 |
67 | Tobias Lindberg | TOR | o | 58.3 | 58 | 59 |
68 | J.T. Compher | COL | t | 58.3 | 61 | 61 |
69 | Andrew Copp | WPG | o | 58.1 | 71 | 71 |
70 | Frank Vatrano | BOS | o | 57.7 | 44 | 57 |
71 | Logan Brown | OTT | o | 57.6 | 72 | 72 |
72 | Joel Armia | WPG | o | 57.5 | 73 | 73 |
73 | Martin Reway | MON | o | 56.8 | 59 | 35 |
74 | Kasperi Kapanen | TOR | o | 56.8 | 75 | 76 |
75 | Anthony Beauvillier | NYI | o | 56.7 | 103 | 105 |
76 | Emile Poirier | CGY | o | 56.6 | 76 | 77 |
77 | Alan Quine | NYI | o | 56.4 | 86 | 86 |
78 | Riley Barber | WAS | t | 56.1 | 80 | 82 |
79 | Drake Caggiula | EDM | os | 56.1 | 81 | 83 |
80 | Jake Guentzel | PIT | o | 55.9 | 125 | 123 |
81 | Reid Boucher | NJD | o | 55.8 | 74 | 74 |
82 | Seth Griffith | TOR | o | 55.8 | 62 | 62 |
83 | Daniel Carr | MON | o | 55.7 | 88 | 88 |
84 | Nikita Scherbak | MON | o | 55.3 | 65 | 65 |
85 | Brendan Perlini | ARI | o | 55.3 | 87 | 80 |
86 | Kerby Rychel | TOR | p | 55.2 | 28 | 24 |
87 | Anton Rodin | VAN | o | 54.8 | 90 | 87 |
88 | Jakob Forsbacka Karlsson | BOS | o | 54.5 | 91 | 91 |
89 | Nick Merkley | ARI | o | 54.5 | 83 | 75 |
90 | Hunter Shinkaruk | CGY | o | 54.4 | 92 | 92 |
91 | Cole Cassels | VAN | o | 54.3 | 89 | 89 |
92 | Tyler Bertuzzi | DET | p | 54.2 | 106 | 108 |
93 | Zach Sanford | WAS | o | 54.2 | 147 | 146 |
94 | Marko Dano | WPG | o | 54.1 | 70 | 70 |
95 | Matt Puempel | OTT | o | 53.8 | 94 | 94 |
96 | Brendan Gaunce | VAN | o | 53.6 | 98 | 100 |
97 | Brendan Leipsic | TOR | o | 53.4 | 84 | 85 |
98 | Joseph Blandisi | NJD | o | 53.3 | 69 | 69 |
99 | Michael McLeod | NJD | t | 52.7 | 101 | 103 |
100 | Francis Perron | OTT | o | 52.4 | 97 | 99 |
101 | Sergey Tolchinsky | CAR | os | 52.4 | 93 | 93 |
102 | Rocco Grimaldi | COL | os | 52.1 | 67 | 67 |
103 | Riley Tufte | DAL | p | 51.9 | 102 | 104 |
104 | Jean-Christophe Beaudin | COL | o | 51.8 | 104 | 106 |
105 | Maxim Letunov | SJS | o | 51.5 | 105 | 107 |
106 | Bryan Rust | PIT | o | 51.5 | 96 | 98 |
107 | Ryan Hartman | CHI | t | 51.2 | 107 | 109 |
108 | Julius Nattinen | ANA | o | 50.9 | 95 | 96 |
109 | Nicolas Roy | CAR | p | 50.9 | 109 | 126 |
110 | Deven Sideroff | ANA | o | 50.9 | 110 | 144 |
111 | Anthony Richard | NSH | o | 50.8 | 112 | 111 |
112 | Markus Granlund | VAN | o | 50.8 | 113 | 112 |
113 | Brock McGinn | CAR | p | 50.7 | 114 | 113 |
114 | Denis Gurianov | DAL | o | 50.6 | 130 | 127 |
115 | Henrik Samuelsson | ARI | t | 50.5 | 117 | 97 |
116 | Nikita Soshnikov | TOR | o | 50.4 | 118 | 116 |
117 | Kevin Roy | ANA | o | 50.2 | 119 | 117 |
118 | Adam Erne | TBL | p | 50.2 | 120 | 118 |
119 | German Rubtsov | PHI | t | 50.2 | 121 | 119 |
120 | Dominik Simon | PIT | o | 50.1 | 123 | 121 |
121 | Dmytro Timashov | TOR | o | 50.0 | 108 | 110 |
122 | Kalle Kossila | ANA | os | 49.8 | 122 | 120 |
123 | Alex DeBrincat | CHI | os | 49.6 | 158 | 200 |
124 | Ryan MacInnis | ARI | t | 49.5 | 124 | 122 |
125 | Nick Sorensen | ANA | o | 49.1 | 127 | 136 |
126 | Josh Leivo | TOR | p | 49.1 | 128 | 125 |
127 | Vaclav Karabacek | BUF | t | 49.0 | 129 | 157 |
128 | Cole Ully | DAL | o | 49.0 | 161 | 158 |
129 | Mark Jankowski | CGY | p | 48.9 | 131 | 128 |
130 | Brendan Lemieux | WPG | p | 48.8 | 132 | 129 |
131 | Phillip Di Giuseppe | CAR | o | 48.6 | 133 | 130 |
132 | Josh Anderson | CBJ | t | 48.4 | 145 | 143 |
133 | Nicolas Aube-Kubel | PHI | o | 48.4 | 134 | 131 |
134 | Dennis Rasmussen | CHI | o | 48.3 | 111 | 95 |
135 | Alexander Khokhlachev | BOS | o | 48.2 | 135 | 132 |
136 | Luke Kunin | MIN | o | 48.1 | 136 | 133 |
137 | Jens Looke | ARI | o | 48.1 | 137 | 134 |
138 | Andreas Johnson | TOR | o | 47.9 | 116 | 115 |
139 | Laurent Dauphin | ARI | o | 47.8 | 150 | 149 |
140 | Christian Fischer | ARI | t | 47.6 | 139 | 137 |
141 | Rourke Chartier | SJS | o | 47.5 | 140 | 138 |
142 | John Quenneville | NJD | t | 47.4 | 141 | 139 |
143 | Radel Fazleyev | PHI | o | 47.3 | 142 | 140 |
144 | Anton Slepyshev | EDM | o | 47.3 | 99 | 101 |
145 | Jack Roslovic | WPG | p | 47.3 | 143 | 141 |
146 | Nikita Gusev | TBL | os | 47.3 | 144 | 142 |
147 | Stanislav Galiev | WAS | o | 47.1 | 115 | 114 |
148 | Rasmus Asplund | BUF | o | 46.9 | 146 | 145 |
149 | Jordan Weal | PHI | os | 46.9 | 100 | 102 |
150 | J.C. Lipon | WPG | t | 46.7 | 148 | 147 |
151 | Daniel O'Regan | SJS | o | 46.6 | 149 | 148 |
152 | Vince Hinostroza | CHI | os | 46.6 | 160 | 156 |
153 | Brett Pollock | CGY | t | 46.6 | 151 | 150 |
154 | AJ Greer | COL | p | 46.4 | 334 | 330 |
155 | Valentin Zykov | CAR | o | 46.4 | 171 | 169 |
156 | Nicklas Jensen | NYR | p | 46.4 | 152 | 151 |
157 | Ryan Gropp | NYR | p | 46.4 | 153 | 159 |
158 | Austin Czarnik | BOS | os | 46.3 | 154 | 152 |
159 | Martins Dzierkals | TOR | o | 46.3 | 155 | 153 |
160 | Lukas Sedlak | CBJ | o | 46.2 | 265 | 264 |
161 | Oskar Lindblom | PHI | t | 46.0 | 159 | 155 |
162 | Justin Bailey | BUF | o | 45.8 | 162 | 160 |
163 | Nicholas Baptiste | BUF | o | 45.8 | 163 | 161 |
164 | Axel Holmstrom | DET | o | 45.6 | 164 | 162 |
165 | Giorgio Estephan | BUF | o | 45.5 | 165 | 163 |
166 | Derek Grant | BUF | o | 45.4 | 166 | 164 |
167 | Warren Foegele | CAR | o | 45.4 | 205 | 205 |
168 | Jake DeBrusk | BOS | o | 45.3 | 189 | 186 |
169 | Denis Malgin | FLA | os | 45.3 | 304 | 301 |
170 | Thomas Novak | NSH | o | 45.0 | 168 | 218 |
171 | Kyle Rau | FLA | os | 45.0 | 169 | 167 |
172 | Aleksi Saarela | CAR | o | 45.0 | 170 | 168 |
173 | Adam Tambellini | NYR | o | 44.9 | 172 | 170 |
174 | Jeremy Bracco | TOR | o | 44.8 | 173 | 171 |
175 | Zach Senyshyn | BOS | o | 44.8 | 199 | 198 |
176 | Tom Kuhnhackl | PIT | o | 44.6 | 156 | 154 |
177 | Daniel Zaar | CBJ | o | 44.6 | 175 | 173 |
178 | Andrew Mangiapane | CGY | o | 44.5 | 176 | 174 |
179 | Remi Elie | DAL | p | 44.4 | 177 | 175 |
180 | Ryan Fitzgerald | BOS | o | 44.4 | 178 | 176 |
181 | Cristoval Nieves | NYR | o | 44.2 | 188 | 246 |
182 | Andrew Poturalski | CAR | o | 44.1 | 179 | 177 |
183 | Colton Sissons | NSH | t | 44.1 | 180 | 178 |
184 | Samuel Blais | STL | o | 44.1 | 181 | 179 |
185 | Paul Bittner | CBJ | p | 44.1 | 182 | 180 |
186 | Travis Boyd | WAS | o | 44.1 | 183 | 181 |
187 | Mario Lucia | MIN | o | 44.0 | 184 | 182 |
188 | Noah Rod | SJS | t | 44.0 | 185 | 183 |
189 | Conor Garland | ARI | os | 44.0 | 186 | 184 |
190 | Tanner Kero | CHI | o | 43.9 | 174 | 172 |
191 | Matej Stransky | DAL | o | 43.9 | 201 | 202 |
192 | Martin Frk | CAR | o | 43.9 | 248 | 247 |
193 | Mitchell Stephens | TBL | o | 43.7 | 187 | 185 |
194 | T.J. Tynan | CBJ | os | 43.5 | 190 | 187 |
195 | Scott Kosmachuk | WPG | t | 43.4 | 191 | 189 |
196 | Adam Helewka | SJS | o | 43.4 | 192 | 190 |
197 | Dylan Sadowy | DET | o | 43.4 | 193 | 191 |
198 | Miles Wood | NJD | o | 43.4 | 234 | 234 |
199 | Kieffer Bellows | NYI | p | 43.1 | 196 | 195 |
200 | Thomas Di Pauli | PIT | o | 43.0 | 198 | 197 |
3 Comments
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None of these guys deserve to be ranked over Boeser:
Oliver Bjorkstrand
Brayden Point
Sonny Milano
Jake Virtanen
Anthony Mantha
Colin White
Timo Meier
Andreas Athanasiou
Nick Schmaltz
Jakub Vrana
Kevin Fiala
Artturi Lehkonen
Tyler Motte
Adrian Kempe
Zach Hyman
Connor Brown
Brett Ritchie
Kevin Labanc
Ivan Barbashev
Joel Eriksson Ek
I’m going to address these one by one. I like Boeser a lot.
Bjorkstrand – not even close. The 45 points he’ll get this year, potentially 55, is GOLD. Rather than a roster spot rotting on your team doing nothing, you’re getting contributions NOW. And while Boeser’s upside is 75, Bjorkstrand’s is even higher. This name is so wrong that I think you just slipped it in as a joke.
Point – Not as much upside, but again I prefer the help here and now rather than the future maybe. Still give me point. And if Boeser were offered up for Point in my Keeper league the Point owner would laugh (interestingly enough, I just got off the phone with the Point owner – yep, he’d laugh).
Milano – Maybe. I probably do prefer Boeser here. But the formula again favors the player who is there now. At least if Milano is a bust, we’ll know this by next summer and can drop and replace him with another Boeser. A Boeser-type prospect, there are 20 of those who crop up every year.
Virtanen – I think I agree with you here. But again – formula is favoring wait time.
Mantha – Same. I agree with you. Same reason though.
White – Wrong. I own White and I could have drafted Boeser. But I CHOSE White. And I’m happy with it. And Boeser wasn’t even next on my list (it was Motte). I like White’s certainty, upside and wait time more.
Meier – LOL come on. Really? Poll your peers and you’ll find 1% agree with you (and then you’d realize that your vote was that 1%)
Athanasiou – Today, I’d consider them equal. I want to see what AA does between now and Christmas. Again – you get results NOW and don’t have to wait. And if he fails, you drop him and draft the next Boeser.
Schmaltz – No, I’d take him over Boeser. I like Boeser better, but again – Schmaltz is close. I don’t want to wait on players that long.
Vrana – Probably equal. Not worthy of discussing difference.
Fiala – I agree with you.
Lehkonen – Uh, nope. I just drafted him and he was 21st on my list, Boeser was 16th. But since that draft Lehkonen has gone lights-out in camp and actually made the team (which I didn’t expect). So a re-draft today would see me take Lehkonen in a heartbeat.
Motte – I like him better than Schmaltz, so I’d take him over Boeser.
Kempe – Yes! I agree with you. Kempe is overrated in fantasy. My formula and analysis captures that overrating.
Hyman – I agree with you. But Hyman is contributing now and playing with Matthews. So that’s why he got the bump this month. Intriguing immediate value. He may go back down again next month. That’s why I do these rankings each month.
Brown – Agreed. But at this point we’re talking about 62.8 rating versus 61.9 rating and I always say +/- 5.0 are equal players. Tomato vs. Tomatto.
Ritchie/Labanc/Barbashev/Eriksson-Ek – Same
Hope this helped!
Well we don’t disagree on all of them I guess.
I am a Vancouver fan granted, but me listing Virtanen in there (pure points leagues) should demonstrate I am no homer. Virtanen tops out as a 50 point player max, possibly 45. Boeser projects as the next Patrick Sharp. I watched him a ton last year (ND) and he is a far better NHL prospect than White and Schmaltz. It’s not even close. You keep saying ‘wait time’ but he is not going back to ND next year. Colin White is back in the NCAA (just like Boeser is this season) so I don’t even see how you can argue he is closer to the NHL. Boeser has very little competition in Vancouver. Not true for White in Ottawa. Boeser was the better player in college last year and showed a lot more that can translate at the NHL level. He will be in Vancouver and you can bank on him winning a roster spot on the top two lines ahead of Virtanen and Hansen.
Milano should not even be in the top 50. Honestly he is a marginal NHL prospect. Think Granlund ceiling (the bad version).
Hyman and Brown remind me of Dixon Ward, Harold Druken type prospects. Who cares if they are in the NHL, they are going to do very little for you long term.
Your formula is clearly based more on exceptionally deep keeper leagues so I can kind of see where you are coming from. That said, getting 30 points from a Mark Dano type this year, should hold zero sway. When you can find a forward that projects as a 65 point player in a James Neal, Patrick Sharp type (which Boeser is), you hold him in high regard. He is Vancouver’s best NHL prospect, certainly the best fantasy prospect we have…ahead of Juolevi, Demko, and Virtanen and for me it’s not even close.
As for fast starts…Boeser 6 pts in his first two games this year.